COVID-19 - In the face of a global pandemic

Some two months after the first cases of the coronavirus, now officially named COVID-19, it seems that man may well be facing a global pandemic.

Pandemic "is inevitable"

President Trump has downplayed the risk saying that "Nothing's inevitable." But experts have contradicted the US president. Tom Frieden, a former CDC Director, told CNN, "It is inevitable there will be a pandemic" but that it was not clear whether it would be mild or severe. Whilst it spreads easily, there was an "enormous amount we don't know," Friedman said.

This is the crux of the matter. There are mixed messages coming from health experts, politicians and organisations. Frieden says that it "appears to be spread before people become symptomatic." The key phrase here is 'appears to be'. Indeed there is not enough known about this particular virus.

Unclear risks

One key reason scientists outside China are in the dark is that information has not been forthcoming from China. Indeed there are serious doubts about the veracity of official Chinese public health data which has made it nearly impossible to draw firm conclusions about the scope and scale of the epidemic. COVID-19 infection rates, mortality, recovery, methods of transmission, incubation periods, and even screening methods have all been thrown into doubt [SCMP].

This outbreak could have been a major turning point in Beijing's quest to assume a leadership role in world affairs. Instead, a lack of transparency has poisoned the well of global goodwill and rekindled concerns about China's control and manipulation of information, its influence over the World Health Organisation and its reliability in a crisis.

Whilst information concerning the virus has not been entirely transparent, China's draconian crackdown of imposing strict quarantine zones, shutting down industry, transport, schools and public events does seem to suggest it might be more serious than one might be led to believe by authorities.

Taking measures

Many countries across Europe imposing strict measures to counter the spread of the virus. Switzerland today, for example, has banned any public events exceeding 1,000 people [Guardian].

There is a general consensus that the virus spreads readily, and perhaps more so than seasonal flu. But it is not clear - at least as far as official information is concerned - what the death rate is and whether those dying are only in high risk groups, such as the very young, elderly and those with immunity disorders.

"We've seen deaths of doctors in their thirties and forties," Frieden says, highlighting the concern that otherwise healthy individuals can succumb to the virus.

Growing numbers

Measuring the numbers of those infected is fraught with problems. Without proactive testing, one cannot determine the true picture. In Britain for example, there were 19 confirmed cases as of 28th February [BBC]. Yet there are undoubtedly many people who have not been tested and who do have the virus.

Sanjay Gupta, CNN's Chief medical correspondent has said that testing for the virus in the US was "inadequate." Meanwhile the WHO has warned of a "pandemic potential."

Frieden doesn't see a pandemic as devastating as the 1918 Spanish flu which killed some 50 million globally. But talking to CNN's Christiane Amanpour he said what was currently being observed was the "Calm before the storm" and that it would "Get worse before it gets better."

Information and disinformation

There are many people who have dismissed the potential risks of COVID-19, suggesting it was no more a concern than seasonal flu.

However, one has to remember that while it is correct to say influenza kills thousands every year there are stark differences between seasonal flu and COVID-19. Epidemiologically speaking COVID-19 appears to spread more readily. Some studies suggest the overall death rate of COVID-19 is 2.3%, although the rate is much higher amongst the elderly [Cidrap]. Of course one has to temper this with the uncertainty of information coming out of China.

In another study based on the cruise ship that was overrun with the virus in Japan it was found that COVID-19 had an R-naught number of 2.28, an epidemiological measure of how many people one infected person might infect.

The International Journal of Infectious Diseases published a report which looked at the 355 passengers who contracted the virus on the ship. Researchers calculated an R0 of 2.28, similar to other R0 modeling published in the past several weeks.

Place this value aside the median R0 value for the 1918 pandemic which has been estimated at 1.80 and it is clear that COVID-19 has a far greater potential to infect millions of people. Seasonal flu meanwhile has an R0 of 1.28 [NCBI / CNBC].

Another issue that is ignored when comparing seasonal flu to COVID-19 is that there are currently ways of fighting seasonal flu. Firstly, there is an annual vaccination scheme in place in many countries. Secondly there are antiviral drugs that are known to be effective in fighting influenza.

Carefully choosing her words Dr Margaret Harris of the World Health Organisation held back from alarmist predictions but nonetheless said governments needed to be proactive. She also pointed to the concerns over this being a new disease.

"We didn't know this virus existed before December,"  Dr Margaret Harris told CNN, "but we have science on our side."

However, most medical experts say any vaccine could be up to 18 months away.

Unclear information

One of the biggest issues facing the public is the lack of clear information coming from government and official sources. Indeed, there are mixed messages which have only helped fuel opinions that the COVID-19 concern amounts to hype and unnecessary panic.

"It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear," Trump told attendees at an African American History Month reception in the White House Cabinet Room.

Trump's comments after Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, had warned of an epidemic. "We expect we will see community spread in this country. It's not so much a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness. … Disruption to everyday life might be severe," she said Tuesday.

President Donald Trump contradicted Messonnier in a press conference from the White Housing briefing room Wednesday, telling reporters, "I don't think it's inevitable. It probably will. It possibly will. It could be at a very small level or it could be at a larger level." [CNN]

Meanwhile, across the pond in the UK messages concerning the coronavirus have been just as confused. Earlier this week the prime minister's official spokesman said, "We will be led by the advice from public health and medical experts and will take steps which they feel are required to best protect the British public."

The risk to individuals "remains low" and 99% of those tested in the UK had come back negative, the spokesman added. "We are well prepared for UK cases, we are using tried and tested procedures to prevent further spread and the NHS is extremely well prepared and used to managing infections."

Taking action

However, while many countries across Europe were putting bans in place on events exceeding gatherings of 1,000 people [Guardian] there seemed to be no clear contingency to implement similar measures.

Indeed, local schools and health centres across the UK took their own unilateral decision to shut on Thursday 27th February after local heads determined there might be a risk after some pupils and visitors were identified as having returned from northern Italy where there has been a recent spike in cases.

While the health secretary Matt Hancock said the decision should be one for individual institutions, the former health secretary Jeremy Hunt told Sky News that people should prepare for schools to close down to stop the spread of COVID-19. The public might have to brace for "social and economic trade-offs," he said, and cautioned the NHS will not function "business-as-normal" if a pandemic breaks out [Sky News].

Shutting down large gatherings should certainly be considered, especially if a recently leaked UK government report is to be believed

The government document, which was leaked to The Sun newspaper, said "the reasonable worst case" was for four fifths of the country to succumb to the virus.

The document by the National Security Communications Team warned, "The current planning assumption is that 2-3% of symptomatic cases will result in a ­fatality." This could mean as many as 500,000 Britons could die [Independent].

Recession fears

While there is uncertainty concerning how governments react to a possible pandemic, stock markets are already reacting negatively. Businesses have already made their own decisions to shut down. Concerts have been cancelled, Disney resorts in Asia have shut down and hotels have closed their doors to visitors.

Meanwhile, a slowdown in exports from China and the knockon effects to businesses around the world has hit the markets hard. In the last two weeks US stocks have taken a major hit with trillions of dollars being wiped off the value of shares.

Yesterday, share prices were on track for the worst week since the global financial crisis in 2008 as virus-related disruptions to international travel and supply chains fueled fears of recession in the United States and the Euro zone [BBC].  

Ratings agency Moody's said a coronavirus pandemic would trigger global and US recessions in the first half of the year [Reuters / Guardian].  

For some countries, such an economic downturn could be disastrous. Britain in particular, faces a great deal of uncertainty as it negotiates its trading position with the European Union having formally left the block in January.

Should Boris Johnson follow through on the threat to fall back on WTO rules if it fails to secure a deal on its own terms by June, the country could face economic collapse if a global recession takes hold.

Last September the global accountancy firm KPMG warned a no-deal Brexit would have a significant short-term economic impact on the UK, plunging the country into recession, causing a rise in unemployment and prompting an estimated 6% slide in house prices. Meanwhile, KPMG said that crashing out of the EU without a deal would likely last for a year and lead to a 1.5% contraction in the UK's economy. A 10% decline in the pound's exchange rate in this scenario would also push up inflation to above the Bank of England's 2% target, potentially forcing the central bank to lower its key interest rate to near zero [FT].  

Couple this with a global recession, and Britain could face a very bleak future indeed.  

Growing racism, hysteria and prejudice

Another bleak concern is the growing prejudice and outright racism being shown towards Chinese people around the world because of the coronavirus.

While it is true to say that COVID-19 originated in China and likely may have come from bats [Guardian / Bloomberg], it is not true to suggest that it is Chinese people's fault. Chinese people are no more likely to have the virus than anyone else. Yet many Chinese people, and even people who look oriental, have been targeted with racial abuse.

In Southampton and surrounding areas in the south of England there have been a number of cases recorded. Dr Michael Ng, who is chair of the Chinese Association of Southampton, which has around 200 members, told the Guardian that hostility against the Chinese community was at the worst level he had known since he arrived in the UK 24 years ago. "It's quite scary when you are walking, as a student, to have people shouting at you, throwing stones at you and you are on your own," he said. "I have a lot of PhD students from China who when they come here they like to wear masks because it seems to be something quite common in China because of air pollution and other things but now they won't wear masks. It's because of the threat of being abused, of being called a virus." [Guardian]

It's not just Britain either. In New York City, a man assaults a woman wearing a face mask, calling her a "diseased b****." While on a Los Angeles subway, a man proclaims Chinese people are filthy and says "every disease has ever came from China [sic]." [CNN]

These are not isolated cases. Neither is it the only form of prejudice. Chinese restaurants have also seen a sharp decline in business wary customers stay away. At Yin Ji Chang Fen, a restaurant in Manhattan's Chinatown, business has dropped 30% to 40% since the first cases of coronavirus were reported near the start of the year.

"If you listen to all the different news reports, people are scared," says Debbie Chen who runs a restaurant in Houston. "There may be some hints of xenophobia. ... But at the same time, I think that for some people, it might just be ignorance, fear, and there may be people putting things out without thinking about how it impacts working people." [USA Today]

The xenophobia displayed by many could indeed be labelled the pathogen of prejudice as one publication described the phenomenon [Economist].

Sadly the situation may get a lot worse before it gets better. If, as some fear, the threat from COVID-19 is greater than is being publicly disseminated, there will, in the weeks and months to come many repercussions.

"Zombie apocalypse!"

Shutdowns of businesses, industry, transport networks and schools may become commonplace. Health services and hospitals may well become overwhelmed as they attempt to deal with the increased number of patients. A rising death toll may precipitate panic amongst the general population which could well precipitate social disorder. In Italy one has already seen panic buying with shops and supermarkets being emptied. And some in Britain are already stockpiling [Guardian].

Kim Geun-woo, a 28-year-old resident of Daegu, South Korea's fourth largest city, told Reuters, "It's like someone dropped a bomb in the middle of the city. It looks like a zombie apocalypse." [Reuters]  

Whilst the description of a 'zombie apocalypse' is perhaps going a little far, the situation is certainly beginning to look like a Hollywood disaster movie.

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Fear is the biggest threat from the 2019-nCoV coronavirus

The number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus has overtaken the 2003 SARS outbreak inside of mainland China, as multiple countries began evacuating their citizens from the city at the heart of the outbreak [CNN].

But scientists outside of China still have no clear understanding of the epidemiology, and as to whether it could become a global pandemic, partly because of the confused and incomplete information coming from China itself.

Growing concerns

In China, where 5,974 people are infected, and 132 have died through Tuesday, there is growing concern. And there are also growing fears around the world too, as countries ban flights from certain parts of China and consider or implement Chinese tourist bans [Jakarta Post] .

The high fatality rate is certainly concerning, but still far less than the fatality rate of SARS and MERS. But there is still a worry this outbreak could pose a serious threat to health on a global scale.

Too early for complacency

The coronavirus, temporarily named 2019-nCoV, has yet to show signs it is something that could become a global pandemic. Nonetheless, it is still too early to be complacent.

Unlike scenarios of viral outbreaks depicted in Hollywood movies such as Outbreak, and more recently Contagion, this virus has been slow to manifest itself.

2019-nCoV was first identified in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019 after people developed pneumonia without a clear cause and for which existing vaccines or treatments were not effective.

Initial numbers of those infected were small, and appeared to only be clustered around individuals who had close connection to a wholesale seafood market in Wuhan which is now widely believed to be the source of the virus.

The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, which had over a thousand stalls selling fish, chickens, pheasants, bats, marmots, venomous snakes, spotted deer and the organs of rabbits and other wild animals, was identified by authorities as being the source of infection, given that by January 2020 two-thirds of those shown to have contracted the virus had been exposed to the market. As a result the market was closed on 1st January 2020.

Numbers of those infected at this point were still small, amounting to only 41. However, with testing for the virus only beginning to roll out in other medical establishments it was of course unclear whether this virus had spread widely.

Growing numbers

The similarity of symptoms with that of seasonal flu has also complicated the issue, that being a high fever, dry cough, muscle aches and tiredness. Less frequent symptoms included coughing sputum or blood, headache and diarrhoea.

As tests of suspected victims increased it became clear that the numbers were increasing significantly. On the 16th January the number of those identified as having contracted 2019-nCoV was still only around 45 but had risen to 121 on the 18th of January. By the 24th January some 1,287 people had been found to have the virus and within just another four days that figure had risen to 5,974.

The spread of the virus and indications that it could take up to 14 days to appear raised further concerns. Indeed there have also been reports that some individuals can be asymptomatic but nonetheless still capable of passing on the virus. Such assertions, put out by the Chinese authorities are, however, dismissed by many US experts. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the Washington Post, "Even if there [is] some asymptomatic transmission, in all the history of respiratory-borne viruses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks."

"The driver of outbreaks is always a symptomatic person," Fauci adds.

Unclear information

The lack of clear and accurate information coming from the Chinese has not helped scientists and researchers.

Researchers outside of China are struggling to accurately model the outbreak and predict how it might unfold, in part because the data released by Chinese authorities is incomplete. China has shared information showing when cases were reported, but not when people became ill.

Researchers also want to know more about the incubation period, currently estimated at two to 14 days, and how severe most cases are [WHO document PDF].

Unclear epidemiology

The lack of clear information has not helped in correctly determining the so-called basic reproduction number, sometimes referred to as the R-nought.

The R nought of an infection can be thought of as the number of cases one case generates on average over the course of its infectious period, in an otherwise uninfected population.

According to Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease in the US, the R nought of the 2019-nCoV is somewhere around 1.5 to 3 whilst the World Health Organization (WHO) have published an estimated R0 of 1.4 to 2.5. Other teams have since come up with slightly higher values, indeed as high as 5.

Measles, which is one of the most contagious infections in the world, has an R nought of around 12 to 18, by comparison, whilst Polio, Smallpox and Mumps all average at around 5.

The season flu on the other hand has an R nought of around 1, having a range between 0.9 and 2.1.

Researchers caution that R0 estimates come with large uncertainties. But having said that, there is the mortality rate that is less opaque. Currently the number of victims that have died having contracted the virus amount to around 2.3%. With mortality rates of 10% for SARS-CoV and 37% for MERS-CoV, the national and international response might seem to be one of overreaction and panic.

Knowns and unknowns

But there is still much unknown about this new virus and it is not yet clear whether those dying are within a group normally considered to be of a healthy age group.

What seems to be clear is that this new virus is not nearly as infectious as the measles virus, which can live as long as two hours in the air after an infected person coughs or sneezes. And it does not, thus far, seem comparable to the threat posed by the seasonal flu, which has killed at least 8,200 people in the United States so far this season. However, with that said both the seasonal flu and this new coronavirus do appear to have a similar mortality rate of between 2.5 and 3 percent. However, there are established methods of treatment for the seasonal flu, whilst this new virus thus far seems unresponsive to treatment.

Given the potential threat, a battle is being fought on two main fronts; containment and the development of a cure.

Lockdown

Soon after the virus and its source were identified Chinese authorities began a gradual shutdown of places and spaces. This has culminated in the city of Wuhan and several others in Hubei province being essentially locked down.

Both expats and local residents have described surreal scenes as the streets of a city once bustling with over 9.6 million people were now deserted.

"No-one is on the streets and it is very quiet," one woman told Euronews. "It's very strange."

An Irish expat meanwhile told Channel Four News in the UK that it was like a scene from a dystopian science fiction movie.

The virtual lockdown of an entire province, with bans on the use of cars and a shutdown of the public transport system may have slowed the spread,  but the door may have been bolted too late.

Already people having travelled from Wuhan, before restrictions were put in place, have infected other across China. Others too have made their journey across international borders and as of Tuesday this week people in at least 13 countries had been identified as having contracted the virus.

As such many experts feel containment will not succeed. "There is a real possibility that this virus will not be able to be contained," said former CDC director Tom Frieden. Indeed, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noted in an interview recently, that the virus may have been spreading unnoticed for weeks in Wuhan before it emerged into public view [Washington Post].

As the number of those found to have the virus outside China rose to nearly 100 on Wednesday, British Airways announced it was stopping all of its flights to China. The airline currently flies two daily flights to China, one to Beijing and Shanghai. BA's decision came after UK officials advised against non-essential travel. Other European and US airlines have also adjusted their schedules [Bloomberg]. 

Meanwhile hundreds of British citizens being flown back to the UK from Wuhan on Thursday will be put in quarantine for two weeks on their arrival [BBC].

Finding a cure  

Whilst various countries focus on ways to deal with any potential outbreak within their own borders, the battle is also on to find a vaccine with researchers aiding in the fight against this new virus.

Researchers at a specialist lab in Melbourne, Australia, said they were able to grow a copy of the virus from an infected patient. The sample was sent to them last Friday.

"We've planned for an incident like this for many, many years and that's really why we were able to get an answer so quickly," said

Mike Catton of the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity [BBC].

But any vaccine might take weeks or even months to develop, test and approve.

Fear and misinformation

There is one other battle the world faces, however. It is one of misinformation.

Numerous conspiracies have appeared since the outbreak - not to mention videos about bat soup with some users blaming Chinese eating habits for the outbreak. In other online posts there are suggestions that the virus had been known about for years and that it might have even be part of China's "covert biological weapons programme" and may have leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Then there is the 'fake nurse video' in which a woman claiming to be working in one of the Euhan hospitals claimed that the authorities had covered up the true extent of the outbreak and that over 90,000 people had so-far been infected [BBC].

The coronavirus 2019-nCoV undoubtedly poses a grave risk and could kill a great number of people before it is controlled. However, it is unlikely, at least with current evidence available, to be like the worst case scenarios as depicted in the film Contagion. Whilst there are some similarities to that movie, the most stark similarity is the film tagline "Nothing spreads like fear"

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A Nightmare Before Christmas as UK heads to a nexus of uncertainty

As Halloween passed and Brexit failed to materialise once again many Remainers were perhaps positive in thinking that Boris Johnson's promise to 'get Brexit done' had indeed died in a ditch.

But just as in the movie of the same name the evil protagonist was not dead, and rose once again to slay more victims.

Britain was dragged into an election campaign which culminated in what Remainers would certainly have seen as a Nightmare on Downing Street as Boris Johnson was elected to lead the country towards Brexit and 'Get it done'.

The apocryphal date of Friday the 13th seemed all the more ironic. Just as Michael Myers returns repeatedly just as one thought he'd been dispatched in Halloween, so the evil protagonist, Jason, in the film franchise Friday the 13th, repeatedly returns to slay his victims.

The victims in this case were dozens of hardline Remain candidates, defectors from the Tory party, and a significant number of Labour MPs.

For Labour, the Lib Dems and the whole pro-European movement this really was The Nightmare Before Christmas.

Of course in the movie, the evil protagonist Jack Skellington, accompanied by his faithful dog Zero, eventually sees the error of his ways and puts things right.

But happy endings are truly rare in real life, and it's more likely than not, this tale will continue in the same vane of many horror movies where the monster continually returns.

On the day Boris has set in his sights for Britain to leave the EU another horror movie is released, namely Gretel and Hansel.

The story is described as being set a long time ago in a distant fairy tale countryside and focuses on a young girl who leads her little brother into a dark wood in desperate search of food and work, only to stumble upon a nexus of terrifying evil.

As Britain stumbles into the dark labyrinth of trade deals and attempts to establish itself as an independent nation outside the EU, the metaphors are both ironic and stark.

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Brexit - the future is not set

Promises that Britain would be leaving the European Union have once again fallen flat as Boris Johnson's pledge to "get Brexit done" has entirely failed. But quite what the next step is, in this ongoing saga, remains unclear.

As has been stated many times over, Brexit would only lead to uncertainty followed by more uncertainty. In whatever form it takes there will never be a clear course.

A so-called hard Brexit, 'clean break' or 'WTO Brexit' would certainly be the most uncertain course since Britain would be put into a position whereby it would have to renegotiate trade deals with every country in the world. Until such point as a trade deal with each country had been established Britain would be trading under WTO rules which would subject the country to crippling tariffs on all its exports. And while Britain might mitigate huge price increases on imported products by reducing tariffs, it would have to apply to all countries which would damage British industry since many would be unable to compete on price.

Even putting a 'hard Brexit' aside, Boris Johnson's 'deal - technically just a Withdrawal Agreement' - would only offer a transition of a few months in which a trade deal with Britain's biggest trading partner would have to be ironed out. In the same period Britain would also have to negotiate trade deals with its other major trading partners or again be forced to fall back on WTO tariffs and regulations.

Given trade deals are notoriously difficult and can take years rather than months, the assertion by many that 'no-deal' has been taken off the table is essentially untrue.

Boris Johnson's 'deal' is now off the table, at least until after a general election which has now been set for 12th December. MPs will have their last day in the Commons on Tuesday 5 November and parliament will not resume until at least 16th December but could be later. No dates have been published as yet but there could be as few as parliamentary 25 days until the next deadline when the most recent extension expires.

Whilst no absolute prediction can be made a hung parliament is more than likely meaning the passing of Boris Johnson's 'deal' may be even more difficult and the risk of Britain crashing out without a deal on the 31st of January remains a possibility.

But predictions and promises are hard to tie down. ERG member and Tory MP for Rayleigh Mark Francois insisted that, "If we don't leave by the 31st of October this country will explode."

Britain hasn't left and there is no sign of insurrection, explosion or similar event. But there may well be strong signs of Brexit fatigue and political frustration on whatever side of the fence one sits.

From a nightmare on Downing Street, a possible Halloween Brexit and an election result expected on Friday the 13th and a likely Nightmare Before Christmas, life truly seems to be imitating art.

Tomorrow the sixth movie in the Terminator franchise is released in British cinemas running with the strap "Welcome to the day after Judgement Day". MPs with soon face their own judgement day in a little over a month. But to take another line from Terminator, "The future has not been written. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves."

Indeed, "the future is not set."

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China's War on Islam

In August this year Qatar pulled it's signature to a document which many other Islamic countries had signed in support of Beijing as policy in Xinjiang which has seen more than a million Uighurs detained in so called education camps [Bloomberg].

Activists hailed the move. "We are happy and welcome the fact that Qatar changed its position and ended its support for China's policies against the Muslim Uighurs," Mahmoud Mohamad, vice president of the Istanbul-based Society of Muslim Scholars of East Turkestan (SMSET) told Al Jazeera.

But whilst it was a sign that the international Muslim community might be finally changing it's stance concerning Muslims' plight in China, many Islamic countries have so far ignored China's harsh treatment of Muslims despite an increasing clampdown on Muslims in China, many Islamic countries.

Sinicization

In January this year Beijing passed a new law requiring Islamic shops and restaurants to comply to displaying signage that did not show Islamic symbols or Arabic writing.

While the capital was the first place to see the enforcement of the new rules, the dictate has gradually rolled out across China in what many see as Beijing's ongoing effort of sinicization.

Sinicization is nothing new in China, especially with regards to religion. Indeed one notable example is Tibet. China led a military assault on Tibet in October 1950, and in April 1951 Tibet's leaders said they were strong-armed into signing a treaty, known as the 'Seventeen Point Agreement', which gave China control over Tibet's external affairs and allowed Chinese military occupation, in return for pledging to safeguard Tibet's political system.

However, there was widespread open rebellion against Chinese rule within Tibet by 1956, which tipped over into a full uprising in March 1959. Tibetans say that thousands died during the occupation and uprising, but China disputes this [BBC].

Since then there has been a process of sinicization by means of state propaganda, police presence, cultural assimilation, religious persecution, immigration, population transfer and political reform.

Muslim fears

China is now developing a five-year plan for the sinicization of Islam, according to the country's government-backed China Islamic Association.

One US-based Muslim student activist Sulaiman Gu said the sinicization program had been designed to target Hui Muslims in particular.

"The sinicization of Islam is mostly targeted at Hui Muslims," Gu told RFA. "[They] know very well that there's no point in using the rhetoric of anti-terrorism or separatism to justify it, but it's still a form of cultural genocide."

Meanwhile Dilxat Raxit, spokesman for exile group the World Uyghur Congress, said the sinicization campaign is utterly coercive. "China has always seen the beliefs of Islam as a fundamental challenge to Communist Party rule," he said. "There is a plan; there's an aim here."

Persecution

Recently a video of Uighurs in China's Xinjiang surfaced online that showed dozens of Uighur men, their heads shaved, blindfolded and with their hands tied behind their backs during a mass transfer at a train station in the north-west region of China [ABC / Sky News].

The images have shocked many especially those in the Muslim community. Alim Osman, president of the Uyghur Association of Victoria in Australia, compared China's treatment of Muslims to Nazi Germany.

"It's chilling and it's very horrifying for us. We feel like we are alone in this battle against the Chinese communist regime," he told the ABC. "[It] feels like exactly the same as what happened in Nazi Germany — it's happening in the twenty-first century again," he said.

Whilst China describes detention camps in Xinjiang as vocational skills education centres they are widely seen as concentration camps by human rights groups [Uyghur Congress].

China is accused of locking up hundreds of thousands of Muslims without trial in its western region of Xinjiang often claiming they are being detained to counter the threat of terrorism.

The region has a long history of rebellion and resistance to Chinese rule. Indeed, the relationship between the Uighurs and their modern-day political masters has long been fraught. But whilst there have been riots and terrorist attacks, Beijing's response has been seen by some as overkill. 

Terror attacks

In 2013, an attack on pedestrians in Beijing's Tiananmen Square, which claimed two lives as well as the three Uighur occupants of the car, marked a significant moment.

Although relatively small in terms of fatalities it rattled the foundations of the Chinese state.

The following year, 31 people were slaughtered by knife-wielding Uighur attackers at a train station in the Chinese city of Kunming, more than 2000 km away from Xinjiang.

These incidents have prompted authorities to clampdown hard. Over the past four years, Xinjiang has been the target of some of the most restrictive and comprehensive security measures ever deployed by a state against its own people.

Facial recognition cameras, monitoring devices that read the content of mobile phones and the mass collection of biometric data is widespread.

New legal penalties have been introduced to curtail Islamic identity and practice - banning, among other things, long beards and headscarves, the religious instruction of children, and even Islamic-sounding names [BBC].

Sinicization spreads

In the last few months the clampdown against Islam appears to be spreading with restaurants, shops and even mosques being forced to comply with new rules.

As far south as Yunnan province authorities have forced businesses to cover up Arabic script and pictures of mosques. Even the English word 'halal' falls foul of the new rules.

Most shops have complied without complaint, though any protestation would likely fall on deaf ears.

Nonetheless there is disquiet in the Muslim community many of whom see the clampdown as an attempt to sinicize China and accuse authorities of "erasing" Muslim culture.

It's not just shops that have drawn the attention of authorities. Mosques too have been forced to comply with new rules.

Some local authorities have insisted Mosques raise the national flag and surveillance on them has also increased.

Fear

"There's fewer people attending prayers now," one Muslim told tvnewswatch, adding that increased monitoring had dissuaded some people from attending.

There is, he said, a threat that any officials, such as those in government or police, would be demoted or sanctioned should they attend prayers.

And it wasn't just mosques either. According to this Muslim, even Buddhist temples are being monitored with those in government positions also being dissuaded from visiting.

Indeed there is a general feeling that President Xi Jinping seems bent on ending or at least limiting any independent commitment to a belief system other than the one embodied in official Communist Party propaganda [WBHM].

His government's next target appears to be the 10-million-member Muslim Hui minority, who are scattered all across China including Xinjiang, Gansu, Beijing, Xi'an, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Hainan and Yunnan.

The Hui minority have no particular record of separatism or extremism but there seems to be a fear within the Communist Party that adherence to the Muslim faith could turn into religious extremism and open defiance of its rule [Washington Post / NYT] .

Rights removed

While most Muslims are still 'free' to practice their religion, albeit under increased surveillance and having complied with new rules concerning signage on shops and restaurants, some are finding their rights eroded.

Uighurs in particular, even those outside Xinjiang, have found their movements restricted.

One Muslim, who lives in south west Yunnan told tvnewswatch his Uigher wife is unable to travel abroad with him since she has had her passport confiscated. She cannot even change her citizenship from Xinjiang to the town where she now lives with her husband in Yunnan province.

With local citizenship refused for Uighers who have relocated there is always the risk they could be rounded up and be placed in one of the detention camps that now house more than one million Uighers deemed a threat by Beijing.

"Everything you see in the foreign media is true," he says, referring to reports such as in-depth investigations by Sky News and CNN.

Growing Islamophobia

However, many Han Chinese don't see the real picture, and see instead a growing Muslim threat.

Such views are exacerbated by the distorted reports that emanate from state media.

While it is true that an uprising in Xinjiang province some ten years ago resulted in the deaths of many Han Chinese, to some extent the events were isolated to that particular region.

"I don't like Muslims," one Han Chinese told tvnewswatch, who had recently returned from the province. He spoke of fearing being attacked by the local Muslim population, whom he said would be quite willing to stab any Han Chinese they encountered.

"I was glad of the strong police presence," he said.

Such sentiments are apparently common. Yet whilst expressing a hatred or dislike for Muslims or Islam, the very same people often choose to eat at Muslim restaurants and even associate with Muslim 'friends'.

These apparent contradictions are hard to reconcile. Indeed, it seems only to indicate that the concerns many have regards Muslims are mostly unfounded.

Most seem unable to recognise that the Uigher uprising that targeted Han Chinese as well as the police, resulted from growing oppression by the authorities, and was not merely Islam versus China.

Playing with fire

Beijing's war on Islam, and indeed other religions, in an attempt to sinicize China may well create bigger problems than it can handle.

Xi Jinping's new China talks of Harmony, Patriotism and Democracy amongst other so-called "socialist core values".

However, alienating core groups and essentially labelling them as the enemy within, is certainly not conducive to establishing harmony.

Indeed, continued repression of the Uighers and Muslims as a whole is more likely to create discord.

So-called Muslim extremists have used Western interference in the Middle East as an excuse to wage war in the form of terror attacks across Europe and the US.

China, thus far, has avoided major attacks. But should it continue with its propaganda campaign and persecution of Muslims and pursue its aggressive policy of sinicization, China may well find itself in the cross hairs of Islamic terrorism.

China's systematic anti-Muslim campaign, and accompanying repression of Christians and Tibetan Buddhists, may represent the largest-scale official attack on religious freedom in the world. Communist China has never been comfortable with religion. During a meeting in Beijing in 1954 Mao Zedong famously told the Dalai Lama, "Religion is poison" [Guardian].

Returning to the past

Xi Jinping is widely seen by observers outside of China as modelling himself on Mao. He is already using tried-and-true methods to craft a personality cult, his airbrushed image looming large on propaganda posters plastered across the country.

And his hardline approach is concerning many.  Cui Haoxin, a Hui Muslim poet who publishes under the name An Ran, fears a return to the days of the Cultural Revolution.

The methods of repression employed in Xinjiang now loom over all of China. "One day this model will not only target Muslims," he says, "Everyone will be harmed by it." [NYT]

He calls it the harshest campaign against faith since the end of the Cultural Revolution, when so-called Red Guards unleashed by Mao Zedong destroyed mosques across the country.

One such incident was the move against the Shadian mosque in Yunnan province which resulted in more than 1,600 deaths [Wikipedia: Shadian Incident].

As China marks the 70th Anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping faces more than a few problems [BBC / LAT].

Pro-democracy protests continue in Hong Kong, a trade war with the US intensifies and there is an ever increasing rich-poor divide with many people marginalised despite China's economic success.

It also faces a continuing battle hiding its chequered past, including man-made famines and massacres that resulted in millions of deaths, hidden from its 1.4 billion people.

Meanwhile it seems to be on the verge of repeating the same mistakes all over again.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Boris serves kippers & red herrings as Brexit becomes a dog's breakfast

It's often the case that those proposing to leave the EU cite interference with unnecessary rules, regulations and directives. Boris Johnson in an address to Tory party members claimed that EU rules forced a kipper supplier in the Isle of Man was required by EU directives to include a "plastic ice pillow" in the package before being dispatched [BBC]. Meanwhile a caller to LBC's James O'Brien show claimed the EU was responsible for banning the practice of wrapping fish and chips in old newspapers.

These are just two examples of lies and half truths that are rarely scrutinised or challenged. Boris Johnson's example was entirely erroneous.

Sky News Brussels correspondent Mark Stone described it as, "Multiple layers of nonsense" given that the Isle of Man is not in the EU, the regulation was not an EU directive and was in fact a British rule. EU sources later insisted that rules that required smoked kipper producers in the Isle of Man to use a "plastic ice pillow" when sending to UK, as made famous by Boris Johnson, were in fact BRITISH rules and not Brussels' rules. In fact the EU does not regulate sales of smoked fish to consumer, only sale of fish from business to business. The Isle of Man example is outside scope of EU food safety rules and while the EU has broad rules saying that food should be safe it has nothing to say concerning the use of an ice pillow. Indeed, this is a British addition designed to stop Listeria [Twitter / Guardian].

As regards the woman and her assertion that the EU had stopped her enjoying fish and chips in newspaper, she is both right and wrong.

In 1976 the European Council put forward a directive that may have brought about the end of fish and chips wrapped in newspaper, though it was in fact UK law that stopped the practice.

Food contact materials, or FCMs, are widely used in everyday life in the form of food packaging, kitchen utensils, tableware, etc. When put in contact with food, the different materials may behave differently and transfer their constituents to the food. Thus, if ingested in large quantities, FCM chemicals might endanger human health, or change the food itself. Therefore, food contact materials are subject to legally binding rules at EU level, currently laid down in Regulation (EC) No 1935/2004 which aims at ensuring FCM safety.

Of course, there are many people who feel nostalgic about fish and chips wrapped in the previous day's newspapers. But the practice may well have died out anyway as paper shops often returned papers on a SoR [Sale or Return] basis.

The practice of wrapping goods in newspaper survived until as late as the 1980s when it was ruled unsafe for food to come into contact with newspaper ink without grease-proof paper in between. Indeed vendors could still use newspaper as outer wrappings, but since old newspapers are returned to distributors shops would not find it easy to obtain them today.

There are many things people feel nostalgic about. But is that to say we should bring them back? Many things that were once commonplace have been banned on safety grounds or because certain practices are no longer practical.

We  might look back with happy memories of using hop on/hop off buses and slam door trains. But how many people suffered serious injury misusing them. Being hit by an open door on a moving train is certainly not funny. Neither is having a passenger flying at you as they misjudge their disembarking from a moving bus.

Whilst many smokers might lament the banning of smoking in public places, especially pubs, few would want to return to the days when one could light up on trains, buses, planes and even in supermarkets.

Some laws banning things from everyday life might be considered Health and Safety gone bad by some, but the dangers of some things removed from schools and places of work are entirely sensible. Anyone growing up in the 1970s will probably remember asbestos mats that were placed under Bunsen burners in the science classroom. Now we know better about the risks that asbestos poses to health. Lead too was commonplace in everything from paint to petrol. But both EU and British regulations have forced a change in the way we do things. In 1978 the US banned the use of lead in paint that was used on toys and similar regulations gradually came into force in Britain and across the EU. Without such regulations children might well be exposed to dangerous elements such as lead, cadmium and even arsenic which were common in plastic toys made in the 1970s and 1980s.

With regards food, regulations are usually applied in order to prevent leaching of potentially dangerous chemicals into food or to prevent the spoiling of food. However, it takes time to bring new regulations into force. BPA, or bisphenol A, an industrial chemical that has been used to make certain plastics and resins since the 1960s, is widely considered to pose a health threat. Under Plastics Regulation (EU) No 10/2011, the new BPA Regulation reduces the SML for BPA from 0.6 mg/kg to 0.05 mg/kg and expands the ban on the use of BPA in the manufacture of polycarbonate infant feeding bottles to sippy cups. However it is not banned entirely. The same is true as regards phthalates which are legally used in food packaging, though their use is restricted in the EU. Phthalates, which can leach into food from the plastic containers, are widely considered to cause damage to the liver, kidneys, lungs, and reproductive system.

Would the lady who looked back nostalgically at eating fish and chips from newspaper be as angry at EU regulations tightening up regulations concerning plastics in our food?

Of course toxicity is a relative term. Apple pips are poisonous, but you'd need to eat at least 200, and chew them well, to kill you. That said,  fish and chips wrapped in paper that is coated with ink containing 2-naphthylamine and 4-aminobiphenyl which studies have linked the ink to bladder and lung cancers hardly sounds appetising. It is probably true that you'd likely have to eat a great deal of fish and chips wrapped in an old copy of The Times to create any adverse effects. But is it not better to err on the side of caution?

tvnewswatch, London, UK

An eventful June but Brexit impasse continues

June has in many ways been extremely eventful, but at the same time little or nothing has happened.

Theresa May finally made a tearful farewell at the end of May having been forced out by the hardline Brexiters in her party. Her resignation set into motion a leadership contest that became almost comical as more than a dozen candidates put their names forward. By the time voting began however, the list had dwindled somewhat and by the final round only Jeremy Hunt and the favourite, Boris Johnson remained.

Amid this contest President Donald Trump came to town storming into Stansted with two jumbo jets, one for himself and another for his daughter, son, relatives and officials. The party was then ferried about in a fleet of helicopters as well as a cavalcade of vehicles that required the shutting down several streets in central London.

Surrounding the Trump circus were a series of protests. On the first day of his visit the protests were fairly low key and around the Victoria memorial the crowds were a mixture of supporters, protesters and inquisitive sightseers and tourists.

However, while there were certainly a number of Trump supporters, they were relatively few in number. Indeed as his cavalcade travelled from Buckingham Palace to Westminster Abbey, the Mall was almost empty.

The following day as Trump was due to meet the outgoing prime minister Theresa May, thousands filled the streets protesting against the president's visit complete with a giant baby Trump balloon.

While there were perhaps legitimate reasons behind the protesters' anger towards the US president, one should not also overlook the fact that he to some extent had a duty to attend the 75th D-Day anniversary commemorations that took place in the days that followed.

In fact many commentators, usually critical of Trump, observed that the US president had been dignified during commemorations and had not made any major missteps.

With the Trump visit over, British papers were focused less on politics than on the weather as heavy rain swept across many parts of the country bringing flooding to many areas. The wet weather did not continue however and by the end of June there were perhaps some wishing for some rain as a 'Sahara plume' brought a brief heatwave with temperatures exceeding 30°C.

Perhaps it was not surprising that with such high temperatures, Climate Change protesters seized on the opportunity to bring their message to the streets. "Hot isn't it? That's global warming" a chalked message, on a piece of street furniture, proclaimed near the Houses of Parliament as thousands of protesters lobbied their MPs.

Parliament however is in a state of winding down as the summer recess draws closer. Despite the urgency to solve the Brexit crisis, there is little on the parliamentary calendar and the Tories are all too preoccupied with their leadership contest to focus on how to move forward on that other than to put forward unrealistic proposals. In less than Three weeks parliament will wrap up for summer and won't return until early September.

That will leave only 8 weeks during which MPs will have to solve the Brexit impasse. Those eight weeks are not quite as long as one might think either. In parliamentary terms it is only 32 days, since parliament only sits for four days each week. And it might be a great deal less than that since party conference season may well eat into the parliamentary agenda.

By default Britain will leave the EU on the 31st October without a deal unless parliament finds some way of stopping it. The 'Withdrawal Agreement' - often referred to as Theresa May's deal - is essentially dead since the next Tory PM, be it Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt, is unlikely to bring it before parliament again.

Both claim that they will seek a 'new deal' with the EU, despite the European Union having iterated many times previously that the negotiations are at an end and that they will not be opened up again.

Thus there is now only one of two routes Britain is heading towards. A 'no deal' Brexit or no Brexit. But before either of those two potential outcomes, September and October will prove to be politically very turbulent.

And talking of turbulent, outside the insular world of Brexit and way beyond Britain's waters there is much concern over Iran and the risk of war between the US and the middle eastern country following accusations it targeted two tankers in the Gulf and later downed an American drone. Thus far, there has only been a war of words with rhetoric coming from both sides. But it only needs a small misstep for the rhetoric to boil over and become a serious military conflict.

Should that happen Brexit will be the east of Britain's worries since as a member of NATO it may well get drawn into any potential conflict. Furthermore, any disruption to the flow of oil from the Middle East which would likely follow any war with Iran would send the global financial system into a spin, that's to say nothing of the effect it might have on the energy sector and industry.

Perhaps the tensions between the US and Iran might all cool down over the summer, even if the weather a little on the warm side.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Smears begin as Jo Swinson confirms Lib Dem leadership bid

It is perhaps predictable, but within hours of the Lib Dem MP Jo Swinson announcing her bid for leader of the party Twitter was alive with smears accusing the MP of illegally claiming parliamentary expenses and accusing her of being 'just another Tory' for backing them in several controversial policies during the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition between 2010 & 2015.

Swinson confirms leadership bid

Swinson announced she would be standing as a contender in the leadership battle for her party on the BBC politics programme Question Time [BBC].

The contest comes after Sir Vince Cable announced he would be standing down as leader on the 23rd July [Guardian].

Accusations of lying

But soon after her appearance Twitter was alive with criticism. Several tweets accused her of lying concerning the percentage of young people going on to university [Twitter].

However her assertion is backed up by official figures [Twitter]. But that has not stopped the vitriol on social networks.

Swinson has stood by her claim, pointing out that the four percent figure came from the most recent Scottish Index on Multiple Deprivation data, published in 2016, which found the proportion of 17-21 year olds entering into full time higher education in Govan and Linthouse ranged between zero and four percent [Scotsman].

Accusations of dishonesty

There have also been accusations of dishonesty with some Twitter users digging out a 2009 article from the Daily Telegraph which highlighted Swinson's expenses claim for cosmetics, a tooth flosser and a television.

Pointing fingers

Some people on social networks have also pointed a finger at accusations made in 2017 that Swinson overspending during the 2017 election. This despite the fact that police dropped the investigation after being "unable to establish criminality" [BBC].

While it is true that Swinson claimed expenses as highlighted in 2009, most such claims were not rejected and were within the guidelines.

Expenses claims

It is also somewhat disingenuous to criticise Swinson of claiming her somewhat meagre expenses given there were many MPs amongst the ranks of both the Tories and Labour parties claiming far more significant amounts, many stretching the rules as to what could be claimed.

Michael Gove, for example, claimed £7,000 for furnishing a London property before "flipping" his designated second home to a house in his constituency, a property for which he claimed around £13,000 to cover stamp duty. It was also alleged that Gove claimed for a cot mattress, despite children's items being banned under the Commons rule. Gove said he would repay the claim for the cot mattress, but maintained that his other claims were "below the acceptable threshold costs for furniture".

Meanwhile the Telegraph reported on 28 May 2009 the the now hard-Brexiter Bill Cash had claimed £15,000 which he then paid to his daughter, a prospective Conservative candidate, as rent for a Notting Hill flat, when he had a flat of his own a few miles away and closer to Westminster. Cash defended these expenses by claiming that it was done within the rules and that "It was only for a year" [Wikipedia].

Opposition rattled

It is clear that the smears and criticism of Swinson are a result of the opposition being rattled by the Lib Dem success in the European elections and at least one recent poll which suggested the Lib Dems could win the next general election.

The YouGov poll which was published almost at the same time Swinson announced her candidacy, pointed to the Libs Dems having a two point lead over the Brexit Party and way in front of the Conservative and Labour parties.

Some 24% said they would vote for the Remain-supporting Lib Dems, with 22% backing the Brexit Party. Meanwhile, Labour and Conservative parties both polled 19% [Sky News / Daily Mail].

Heading for Number 10?

Swinson, who is the favourite to win the leadership bid, could therefore potentially become not only the first Lib Dem prime minister, but also the first female Lib Dem prime minister.

That scenario would of course depend upon there being a general election whilst the Lib Dems held high in the polls.

Given how disastrous Brexit has been thus far, it seems the Lib Dems may well have a chance, unless Labour's leadership get off the fence concerning their position on a possible second referendum.

Unclear road ahead

Nothing is, of course, certain. Following May's announcement to stand down as PM there is a leadership contest taking place with no less than 12 candidates having put there names forward. Most have proposed standing on a platform of either seeking to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU or to leave without a deal [BBC].

Given the EU has continually iterated that the negotiations will not be opened up again, a no-deal or no Brexit would be the only two options.

Labour meanwhile have still not made their position clear with Corbyn still shying away from backing a second referendum in the near future [Guardian].

There are certainly many hard Brexiters that are willing to back a no-deal, and the Brexit Party has certainly capitalised upon this base.

But the Lib Dems too are earning support from remainers and from those unhappy with the shambles created by Brexit. Indeed the party's clear anti-Brexit message appears to be resonating with many voters.

Should there be no general election and the Tories take Britain out of the EU without a deal, the ensuing chaos could well increase the Lib Dems power base.

Brexit, a deciding factor

Indeed any lack of success concerning Brexit is sure to result in greater support for the Lib Dems as will the change in demographics. Parties that helped bring about a disastrous Brexit or did little to prevent it will likely suffer and lose public support.

The future is still uncertain but today is a good day for the Lib Dems. However, given the abuse emanating from social media, it is also clear it will be no easy fight to get the keys to No 10.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

No-deal Brexit more likely after May quits

The British Prime Minister Theresa May's resignation looks likely to make the UK's looming departure from the EU even more difficult, with some suggesting a hard or "no-deal" Brexit is now almost inevitable.

Brexit costs Tories two leaders

While there remains a good number of hard core Eurosceptics who relish the idea of leaving the EU, there are many even within the Conservative party that think the referendum has brought only chaos.

Speaking in March this year Charles Walker, the Conservative MP for Broxbourne, told one Chinese television news crew that he expected only more chaos to follow after MPs rejected the Withdrawal Agreement for a second time.

He also expressed regret at there ever having been a referendum. "To the day I die I will curse myself for ever thinking that a referendum was a good idea," he told the BBC [New European].  

Many others within the party might also be regretful, even if they don't express such thoughts publicly.

The vote to leave the European Union has cost the party two prime ministers, a loss in public support and a reduced majority in the parliament.

Indeed, while many hard-line Eurosceptics and Brexiters refuse to accept it, the country has lost more than just a couple of prime ministers.

Cost to the country

The British pound tanked the day after the referendum and has yet to recover. And following the Theresa May's announcement to stand down as PM, the currency became volatile once again as a no-deal Brexit risk was seen to rise.

While many Brexiters have insisted a weaker pound would increase Britain's exports, due to them being cheaper, there is little sign that exports have risen at all in the last three years.

In fact there is more a sign that the British economy and its manufacturing base is flailing.

Economic contraction

The latest surveys of business activity, used as an early warning indicator by the Bank of England, showed the economy stalling in the first quarter and at risk of sliding into a downturn, after the weakest performance in the private sector in almost seven years.

The surveys have proven gloomier than official figures over the past few months, although still paint a worrying picture for the path ahead, as British firms put spending decisions on hold.

According to the survey from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, both the construction and service sectors plunged into reverse in March, while manufacturing was only able to expand because of emergency stockpiling in the run-up to Brexit.

Trillions of assets left the UK

Ahead of the original date the UK was set to leave the European Union more than £1 trillion in assets had reportedly been shifted out of London to hubs in the European Union [Reuters].

And while Britain did not in fact leave on 29th March, it is unlikely these assets will return - at least in the short to medium term.

Relocations & slowing investment

The continuing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, and fears of a no-deal Brexit, has slowed investment and some businesses have either relocated completely or moved some of their operations abroad [Independent].

Business investment has fallen for the past four quarters and the new Brexit date is likely to prolong the uncertainty, the FT reported in April [FT]. 

Global slowdown

Brexiters might point to the fact that there is a global slowdown and that the Eurozone is slowing too. This is partly true. However, over the last decade the Eurozone has strengthened [BBC], and growth in the eurozone jumped to +0.4% in the first quarter of this year, stronger than the meagre 0.2% recorded in Q4 2018 [Guardian].

On the other side of the pond, the US is seeing an economic decline [Reuters].

The loss of momentum came even before a recent escalation in the trade war between the United States and China which could have a significant effect on the US economy.

Insulation against a global economic slowdown

While the trade war started by Trump is certainly having an effect on the Chinese economy, China is unlikely to suffer in the medium to long term. Growth is currently 6.9% and even if that were to shrink by half as some economists are predicting [Forbes], China's growth would still remain higher than most other major economies.

That is more than double that of the UK's overall current 1.5% growth rate and a third higher than the US growth rate which stands at a little over 2.2% [Sky News / Guardian]. 

The bigger a trade block the more insulated it will be should there be a global downturn. For small country and those not part of a large trading block, the risks are higher.The world economic slowdown and Brexit uncertainty have already combined to inflict damage to investment and output in Britain.

Escalating trade war

And things could get much worse if the US-China trade war escalates.

President Trump's targeting China's flagship mobile company Huawei has angered the Middle Kingdom to such an extent that there is talk that China could respond with more than just an increase in tariffs on US goods. And other countries could become embroiled as Trump has threatened countries that do business with Huawei [Guardian].

China is currently the largest holder of US government debt. It now owns $1.12 trillion in US Treasury bonds. If China decided to sell off its US government debt holdings as a form of retaliation in the ongoing trade war with the US and President Donald Trump, it could upend global financial markets and drive US interest rates higher.

Many have dismissed such a possibility - which has often been referred to as China's 'nuclear option' - for the fear it could not only upend the global economy but also China's own economy.

China is already make plans to be more self-sufficient and less reliant on foreign markets. And if push comes to shove, China might close its doors, just as easily as it opened them to the West some thirty years ago.

Only last week investors received some unnerving news after China sold $20 billion of securities with a maturity exceeding one year in March, according to US government data. The sales amounted to China's largest retreat from the market in more than two years and could indicate Beijing's readiness to up the stakes if Trump pursues his trade war against the second largest economy in the world [FT].

Many economists do not believe China would go for a large sell of of US treasuries. But not everyone is so sure. "It depends on what the goal is," says Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. "If the goal is to disturb the US Treasury market, then they may not care about inflicting self-harm." [SCMP]

Brexit risks further isolation

But what has all this got to do with Brexit? With the global economy currently displaying signs of unpredictability and volatility, it is important to create as much insulation as possible.

If Britain cuts itself off from its biggest trading partner, that being Europe, and worse, crashes out without a deal and falls back on WTO rules, it would find itself in a very dangerous place if, as has been predicted, another global recession returns.

Even if a global recession does not immediately materialise, trade deals are not going to be easy to draw up as the unease grows over Trump's trade war and concerns over global growth. And even if trade deals are able to be negotiated, they are far less likely to be favourable for Britain than to those with which it is negotiating.

Britain could find itself in some very choppy waters indeed as it would be forced to appease two of the biggest economies in the world with which it does significant trade, outside of the eurozone, and which are currently fighting each other in an ever growing trade war.

With Theresa May's departure the prospect of such scenarios are more real than ever. Most of the main Tory leadership contenders lean towards a no-deal Brexit, especially the favourite Boris Johnson.

The talk heard from several of them is that they could 'renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement', something the EU has repeated time and time again will not be done.

Speaking on College Green soon after May announced her departure, Mark Francois said he'd prefer to leave with a deal, but that if one could not be negotiated by 31st October than Britain could leave on WTO rules for a time and then negotiate a deal with the EU soon thereafter.

Boris Johnson, speaking in Switzerland, spoke similarly suggesting the Irish backstop could be dropped and that if a deal with the EU was not reached by October then Britain would simply fall back on WTO rules.

And so where do we go from here? "Oblivion," joked Alastair Campbell as he walked from College Green. It might have been a quip, but Halloween may be far more frightful than many might have thought.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Under threat from cyber-spies

Today should be a wake-up call for those with smartphones after it was revealed that the popular Whatsapp mobile phone application had been compromised with sophisticated spyware.

Cyber attackers were apparently able to install spyware on WhatsApp through its voice call function, even if the user did not pick up the call, the company confirmed [Sky News / BBC].

Dozens of WhatsApp users, including human rights organisations and a UK-based lawyer, may have been targeted in the attack which exploited a major vulnerability in the app in an attempt to take over the operating system.

The breach was discovered in early May, though no specific date has been made public, and has since been fixed. But WhatsApp, which claims to have more than 1.5 billion users, has urged people to update their app to the latest version of the software.

Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto said an attacker attempted to exploit the app, and was blocked, as recently as Sunday evening.

The Financial Times reported the spyware was developed by NSO Group, an Israeli cybersecurity and intelligence company.

However, NSO Group has distanced itself from direct involvement. In a statement it said, "Under no circumstances would NSO be involved in the operating or identifying of targets of its technology, which is solely operated by intelligence and law enforcement agencies."

"NSO would not, or could not, use its technology in its own right to target any person or organisation, including this individual (the UK lawyer)."

While NSO may not be directly involved, the company is known to sell its technology to third parties particularly foreign governments.

In 2018 a series of reports [Foreign Policy / CitizenLab] said NSO technology had been employed in the targeting of Ahmed Mansoor, a a well-known human rights activist in the United Arab Emirates.

At around the same time Mansoor had his passport confiscated, his car stolen, his email hacked, his location tracked, his bank account emptied, and was beaten by strangers twice in the same week.

Within a year Mansoor had been detained and subsequently jailed for ten years.  

This year the New York Times reported that in 2017 Saud al-Qahtani, then a top adviser to Saudi Arabia's powerful crown prince, was tracking Saudi dissidents around the world and was using NSO Group's technology to aid his search. It is suspected that Saud al-Qahtani's  extensive surveillance efforts ultimately led to the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi. 

It's not just Arab states that are employing NSO's software. According to CitizenLab at least 45 countries were using Israel-based "Cyber Warfare" vendor NSO Group's mobile phone spyware suite called Pegasus.

In the past the focus has been on weapons manufacturers and governments who have been selling arms and military equipment to questionable governments around the world.

While such issues are no less important, it is clear that cyber-weapons pose a significant threat also.

The sale of such software to governments might well be legal. But there are certainly moral questions that should be answered if such technology is being used to illegally target arguably innocent citizens and detain them.

There is also the risk that such software is more difficult to control in terms of its escape into the wild. While guns, tanks and aircraft can be smuggled and sold to dubious organisations and groups outside of government control it is more difficult than disseminating code which can simply be emailed or passed to others on something as small as a memory card or USB thumb drive.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

UK in Brexit limbo until Halloween

The UK is in limbo and a state of uncertainty as another Article 50 extension puts back a possible Brexit to 31st October. The PM faced a turbulent session in the commons where she battled questions from all sides on Thursday last week after returning from Brussels with the new extension [Guardian]. Afterwards she faced more anger as she left parliament surrounded by high security and to heckling from protesters as her car exited the parliamentary estate.

Theresa May had earlier told MPs to use the Easter recess to consider their 'national duty' to resolve the Brexit crisis. But there is no sign that that will happen. Indeed, it is more likely that October will roll around without any consensus.

A comical farce

The whole sorry mess of Brexit is playing out like a comical farce as the PM Theresa May attempts to carry out her mandate to deliver Brexit.

After nearly two years of negotiation to secure a 'deal' - technically speaking just a withdrawal agreement - May has failed completely to secure support either within her own party or across the house in order that she can get it ratified.

The Withdrawal Agreement had been secured late last year but May decided not to put it before parliament before Christmas as she admitted it "would be rejected by a significant margin" [BBC].

And so off she went to Brussels to ask for changes to it despite the European Council President Donald Tusk having said the remaining 27 EU countries would not "renegotiate" the deal.

In January Theresa May put the 'deal' before parliament only to see it rejected. Again she tried in March. Once again it was rejected and she was forced to ask for an extension or either allow the UK to crash out or revoke Article 50.

The EU gave her a short extension until the 12th April. But in the two weeks after the date Britain was due to leave the EU, parliament seemed unable to come to any consensus on anything.

A whole series of indicative votes failed and 'May's deal' failed to get a majority on a third attempt.

"Please Sir, can I have some more"

Rather like a schoolboy or girl asking for more time to complete their assignment Theresa May once again, cap in hand, returned to Brussels asking for an extension [France24].

The prime minister arrived with no real reason for an extension other than she had now decided to begin discussions with the opposition party in order to break the impasse following a marathon cabinet session.

And while there was some consternation emanating from Macron on the French side, the EU eventually decided to allow an extension until the 31st of October with a review of proceedings on the 20th of June.

The dates on the calendar were particularly poignant. And the fact that an extension was granted was also odd given that May's request for one gave no concrete plan or reason.

In fact it seemed clear that while the EU could have quite legitimately refused an extension since May was essentially just asking for more time, the EU did not wish to be seen to be deliberately forcing her hand into making a decision to either revoke or jump off the cliff.

Should May have failed to revoke article 50, the EU could have been seen to have helped push the UK off the proverbial cliff.

But by allowing an extension the EU has also gone back on its stated proclamation that an extension would only be granted if there were a new plan.

Simply stating she was in talks with Corbyn does not amount to a new course of action. Even if, as some within Labour want, May shifts her red lines and shows a leaning towards a customs union, the Withdrawal Agreement is - as the EU has stated any times - still not up for renegotiation.

Even if May were to relax her hardline approach - admittedly not as hardline as the likes of the ERG want of Brexit - the extreme hardliners within her party and the DUP might be joined by the less extreme Tory Brexiters.

So the chances of pushing her 'deal' through still remain somewhat implausible.

European Elections

Following May's decision to talks with Labour, many Tories were said to "be fuming". Theresa May was now "getting into bed with a Marxist," ERG hardliner Mark Francois said on College Green after May returned with an extension.

Meanwhile others were calling for her resignation.

Furious that she had agreed to the long delay, breaking her own pledge that, "as Prime Minister", she would not delay beyond the end of June, hardline Brexiter Peter Bone said, "If the PM intends to keep her word, can we expect her resignation later tonight?"

Only days before the media reported growing divisions in the party with funding drying up and [BBC].

The Observer reported she had been warned by her mutinous MPs that they would move to oust her if the UK was forced to take part in European elections and extend its EU membership beyond June.

The paper also reported that MPs feared many Conservatives would boycott the poll, increasing the chances of the far-right and Nigel Farage's new Brexit party [Guardian].

However there is talk, even amongst hardline UKIP supporters that they would not vote in European Elections.

Meanwhile some were calling on voters to spoil their ballot papers rather than vote for a candidate [Telegraph].

Such actions could of course benefit pro-European parties and potentially leave other parties left out in the cold should MEPs take their seats in June. And if Britain were to remain in the EU beyond October the Tories and other hardline parties may well feel rather stupid.

Extension and review

But what of the extension? The EU has put two dates on the calendar. The first date is June 20th when it will review Britain's progress on the Brexit withdrawal process.

If the Withdrawal Agreement has still not passed then MEPs with take their seats on the 2nd July.

Mid-August poses another issue. This is the approximate time by which the prime minister would need to call a general election to be held before the article 50 extension expires – in order to meet the requirements of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011, and also the timetable set out in the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013, which requires 25 working days for an election campaign.

In early September MPs will be returning from summer recess, unless recalled early, to deal with Brexit crises and contemplate any possible general election or second referendum.

And on 31st October the six-month article 50 extension will expire once again creating another new possible date for Britain's crashing out without a deal.

Trick or treat?

The choosing of Halloween as the new extension date has created many opportunities for headline writers.

The Guardian saw the new Brexit date as "very appropriate" with another column ran with the headline; "Halloween Brexit is a fitting outcome for the zombie prime minister" [Guardian].

The Halloween jokes on social media were prolific with suggestions of Jacob Rees-Mogg Halloween masks to puns on horror films such as the Exorcist, renamed Brexorcist and depicting Theresa May with her head rotated the wrong way [iNews].

Trick or treat? You couldn't quite make it up, said the BBC.

But the extension is bittersweet for all sides.

In its simplest sense, the prime minister asked for a delay so that she didn't open Pandora's Box.

Should she have revoked, as the clock ticked towards the default time that Britain was due to leave the EU on the 12th of April, she would have unleashed a wrath of fury against herself and her party.

On the other hand if she had allowed a no-deal Brexit it would likely have precipitated economic turmoil and thrown the country into uncharted waters.

After May went cap in hand to Brussels, the EU eventually said yes to a new timetable. But the new October deadline might not solve very much at all.

Impasse unlikely

There appears to be as much division within parliament as there was before and the chances of the Withdrawal Agreement passing seem as remote as ever.

Given the 'deal' cannot be changed or renegotiated, it seems rather futile discussing anything with the opposition as May has been doing.

May's red lines, of no single market or customs union, have essentially created the Withdrawal Agreement she has attempted to pass through parliament, and the particularly contentious Irish backstop.

Should she not have ruled out a customs union, the Irish backstop may well not have been necessary. But now it's too late to change since the negotiation is at an end.

And so all the extension does is to enable a little more can kicking while business and the UK population waits with just as much uncertainty as to what might happen on the 1st November.

No-deal planning

Businesses - and many individuals - have been making preparations for a no-deal Brexit for some time. Companies have been stockpiling - often at great cost in terms of storage. So too have many individuals, fearing panic buying or other disruptions to supply chains could result in shortages.

The two week delay after the March 29th Brexit date was cancelled was a slight inconvenience. But creating a six month delay creates many logistical issues for anyone stockpiling or planning for a no-deal Brexit.

Does one continue to keep a stockpile going? And if one does decide to continue, stock has to be constantly rotated especially for perishables. The government has reportedly stepped down its no-deal planning [Guardian]. But this does not necessarily guarantee a no-deal Brexit won't happen, perhaps just less likely.

For EU citizens there is no more certainty as regards their status, only that there will be a delay before they'll need to act.

For everyone that Brexit will likely affect, be it a hard no-deal Brexit or leaving on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement, the next six months only offer a brief respite and leave them in limbo.

What's next?

Theoretically, the UK could leave on Halloween, but given the previous adjustable dates of 29th March and 12th April, it's not beyond the realms of possibility of another extension later this year.

If MPs manage to break the deadlock and agree on a withdrawal agreement in good time before 31st October, the UK can leave on the first day of the month following the passing of a deal. But few believe the deal will ever pass.

As parliament went into recess for the Easter break one could be forgiven for thinking Brexit was all but over.

College Green - from where the world's media have broadcast their reports about Brexit was almost deserted on Friday morning and most of the gazebos had been taken down.

On Friday much of the news media had veered away completely from Brexit news. Indeed it reminded one of those days long ago when there was something else in the news besides Brexit.

The lull will not last of course. In two short weeks MPs return to parliament, and there will once again be a glut of  opinion and debate surrounding Brexit and the upcoming European Elections that Britain is now obliged - due to the extension - to take part in.

And so the circus continues….

tvnewswatch, London, UK

No-deal still likely as the Brexit chaos continues

Only a day before Britain was originally set to leave the European Union no-one was clear what would happen next. An extension had been secured until 12th April such that the PM might get her Withdrawal Agreement passed. But despite a busy week in both cabinet and parliament nothing is certain.

Withdrawal Agreement rejected

The Withdrawal Agreement, secured by Theresa May with the EU last year, was rejected by parliament twice, once in January and again in early March. This forced Theresa May to hold two more votes which she had promised. The first was to establish whether parliament would take a no-deal Brexit off the table whilst the second vote was to ask whether May should seek an extension from the EU.

No-deal was firmly rejected by parliament, with 321 votes against leaving without a deal to 278. However, whilst the vote was not binding it did lead to parliament agreeing in sending Theresa May scuttling back to Brussels to ask for some more time.

Seemingly begrudgingly the EU gave Theresa May until 12th of April to secure her 'deal', and if secured Britain would leave 'in an orderly' fashion on 22nd May. Should her 'deal' not be passed however, Britain would - by default - crash out on the 12th April.

Of course Britain could go back to the EU and request more time. However, just as the the Speaker of the House dismissed a third vote on her deal without substantial changes, the EU seemed likely to dismiss any further requests for an extension without a plan.

Indicative votes - round 1

On Wednesday last week, with only 15 days until the new possible exit date of 12th April, MPs voted on a number of tabled motions, referred to as 'indicative votes'.

However all eight motions put before parliament were rejected. In a repeat of the earlier move to remove no-deal from the table, a no-deal Brexit was firmly dismissed with 400 rejecting such a proposal whilst only 160 backed it.

A so-called Common Market 2.0 or Norway plus option garnered only 188 votes in support while 283 rejected it. Meanwhile another proposal of EFTA & EEA was also rejected by 377 against with only 65 supporting the motion.

A UK wide customs union option did gather a little more support but again there was almost a 50/50 split with 272 MPs rejecting the motion while 264 supported it.

Corbyn's so-called alternative plane also failed with only 237 voting for it whilst some 307 voted against.

There was also no support in the house to Revoke Article 50 to avoid a no-deal Brexit as only 184 voted in favour while 293 rejected the motion.

Meanwhile a Confirmatory public vote motion - or second referendum - also lost with only 268 backing the idea whilst 295 rejected it.

And the last proposal of Preferential arrangements was rejected out of hand with 422 dismissing it while only 139 back the motion.

Deadlock

And so nearly a week on from when parliament sent May to Brussels to buy more time, parliament seemed to be no further forward and in apparent deadlock.

No proposal has been agreed upon, though there is a clear dismissal of a no-deal Brexit with 400 against 160. This was an even more emphatic dismissal on the previous week's vote. In that vote 321 voted to remove a no-deal from the table while 278 had voted in favour of keeping the prospect in place.

While parliament's opposition of a no-deal Brexit has apparently grown there doesn't appear to be much growth in support for the Withdrawal Agreement.

On the day Britain was originally set to leave the European Union the Withdrawal Agreement was once again rejected [BBC].

The government lost by 344 votes to 286, a margin of 58, and meant the UK has missed an EU deadline to delay Brexit to 22nd May and leave with a deal. Speaking afterwards the prime minister said the UK would have to find "an alternative way forward", which was "almost certain" to involve holding European elections.

The margin of rejection of the deal was certainly down on the March and January votes [391 against to 242 for, and 432 against to 202 for respectively], but is seems clear that getting the extra 50 plus votes in a possible fourth vote is very unlikely [Guardian].

Indicative votes - round 2

After the weekend MPs returned to discuss and vote upon a second, but smaller, list of proposals. But once again there was no consensus and all four indicative votes failed [BBC].

Speaker John Bercow chose four proposals to put before MPs; a customs union, a common market 2.0, a confirmatory public vote and a parliamentary supremacy proposal which would seek to rule out no-deal and revoke Article 50 if no extension could be secured.

But as in the previous week's round of votes there was no consensus. Ken Clarke's customs union plan lost by only three votes, defeated by 276 to 273.

The Common Market 2.0 plan - put forward by Conservatives Nick Boles, Robert Halfon and Dame Caroline Spelman, Labour's Stephen Kinnock and Lucy Powell, and the SNP's Stewart Hosie - was defeated by 282 to 261

A motion put forward by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson calling for a confirmatory vote failed by 292 to 280 votes. Meanwhile Joanna Cherry's proposal was defeated by 292 to 191.

Ticking clock

With the clock ticking down to a no-deal on the 12th April, Theresa May was now faced with few options.

She could attempt to put the Withdrawal Agreement before parliament for a fourth time but that would have to be approved by Wednesday 10th in order that the EU can ratify the agreement and approve the 22nd May extension.

However, it appears that horse has already run and Theresa May has to come up with another plan to present to Europe in order to obtain an extension.

Following a cabinet meeting on Tuesday 2nd April which lasted more than 5 hours Theresa May announced she was to consult with the leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn in order that she might establish cross party support for a proposal she might present to EU leaders [BBC].

In an address to the country the PM said she was "taking action to break the log jam," by "offering to sit down with the Leader of the Opposition to try to agree a plan that we would both stick to, to ensure that we leave the European Union and that we do so with a deal."

Of course, as the EU have so often repeated there will be no renegotiation and there is only one 'deal' on the table. Theresa May appeared to recognise this in saying that, "Any plan would have to agree the current withdrawal agreement."

But as has already been seen through the votes on the WA itself as well as a series of votes on various Brexit related motions, there is almost complete deadlock in parliament.

Whilst there was some positive news emanating from the meeting between the PM and Jeremy Corbyn, there were signs that any resolve would be difficult [BBC].

While Labour and Downing Street described the discussions as "constructive", Jeremy Corbyn himself described them as "useful but inconclusive." [BBC / Guardian].

Fantasy plans

There has been much discussion concerning the possibility that the PM and Corbyn could present a plan of a softer Brexit to the EU. But this could be seen as somewhat incredulously by EU leaders.

There is growing impatience amongst EU politicians with Britain. Indeed there has even been talk that Britain should just leave. And while many are still sad to see Britain disgrace itself, Europe seems almost resigned to Britain crashing out on WTO rules.

Britain won't know until Thursday 11th whether the European Union will offer an extension to Article 50. Should there be no extension offered, Britain will crash out of the EU the following day.

If an extension were granted it could well last many months and force Britain to take part in EU elections.

With all the indecision and lack of consensus shown in parliament it seems unlikely that the PM will have an acceptable plan to present to Brussels. Thus as time draws nearer to Friday 12th of April Theresa May will have a choice of either revoking Article 50 or letting Britain crash out of the EU. Will it be a case of "Torschlusspanik"* and May cancelling Brexit? Or will she let Britain crash out and sail into an uncertain economic future?

There is one sticking point as regards the revocation of Article 50. Last year the European Court of Justice ruled that Britain had the power to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit. But the decision to withdraw the notification has to be made in line with the country's "own national constitutional requirements" which could mean that any revocation would have to be put to a parliamentary vote.

Given this scenario Britain could potentially crash out by accident since a parliamentary vote cannot be guaranteed to produce the desired result.

Nearly three years after the referendum there is still only further uncertainty ahead.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

*Torschlusspanik is a combination of three German words, and literally translated means "gate-shut-panic." Apparently the term dates back to the Middle Ages in reference to the panic medieval peasants might have experienced as they rushed to make it back inside the city gates before they closed at nightfall