The UK is in limbo and a state of uncertainty as another Article 50 extension puts back a possible Brexit to 31st October. The PM faced a turbulent session in the commons where she battled questions from all sides on Thursday last week after returning from Brussels with the new extension [Guardian]. Afterwards she faced more anger as she left parliament surrounded by high security and to heckling from protesters as her car exited the parliamentary estate.
Theresa May had earlier told MPs to use the Easter recess to consider their 'national duty' to resolve the Brexit crisis. But there is no sign that that will happen. Indeed, it is more likely that October will roll around without any consensus.
A comical farce
The whole sorry mess of Brexit is playing out like a comical farce as the PM Theresa May attempts to carry out her mandate to deliver Brexit.
After nearly two years of negotiation to secure a 'deal' - technically speaking just a withdrawal agreement - May has failed completely to secure support either within her own party or across the house in order that she can get it ratified.
The Withdrawal Agreement had been secured late last year but May decided not to put it before parliament before Christmas as she admitted it "would be rejected by a significant margin" [BBC].
And so off she went to Brussels to ask for changes to it despite the European Council President Donald Tusk having said the remaining 27 EU countries would not "renegotiate" the deal.
In January Theresa May put the 'deal' before parliament only to see it rejected. Again she tried in March. Once again it was rejected and she was forced to ask for an extension or either allow the UK to crash out or revoke Article 50.
The EU gave her a short extension until the 12th April. But in the two weeks after the date Britain was due to leave the EU, parliament seemed unable to come to any consensus on anything.
A whole series of indicative votes failed and 'May's deal' failed to get a majority on a third attempt.
"Please Sir, can I have some more"
Rather like a schoolboy or girl asking for more time to complete their assignment Theresa May once again, cap in hand, returned to Brussels asking for an extension [France24].
The prime minister arrived with no real reason for an extension other than she had now decided to begin discussions with the opposition party in order to break the impasse following a marathon cabinet session.
And while there was some consternation emanating from Macron on the French side, the EU eventually decided to allow an extension until the 31st of October with a review of proceedings on the 20th of June.
The dates on the calendar were particularly poignant. And the fact that an extension was granted was also odd given that May's request for one gave no concrete plan or reason.
In fact it seemed clear that while the EU could have quite legitimately refused an extension since May was essentially just asking for more time, the EU did not wish to be seen to be deliberately forcing her hand into making a decision to either revoke or jump off the cliff.
Should May have failed to revoke article 50, the EU could have been seen to have helped push the UK off the proverbial cliff.
But by allowing an extension the EU has also gone back on its stated proclamation that an extension would only be granted if there were a new plan.
Simply stating she was in talks with Corbyn does not amount to a new course of action. Even if, as some within Labour want, May shifts her red lines and shows a leaning towards a customs union, the Withdrawal Agreement is - as the EU has stated any times - still not up for renegotiation.
Even if May were to relax her hardline approach - admittedly not as hardline as the likes of the ERG want of Brexit - the extreme hardliners within her party and the DUP might be joined by the less extreme Tory Brexiters.
So the chances of pushing her 'deal' through still remain somewhat implausible.
European Elections
Following May's decision to talks with Labour, many Tories were said to "be fuming". Theresa May was now "getting into bed with a Marxist," ERG hardliner Mark Francois said on College Green after May returned with an extension.
Meanwhile others were calling for her resignation.
Furious that she had agreed to the long delay, breaking her own pledge that, "as Prime Minister", she would not delay beyond the end of June, hardline Brexiter Peter Bone said, "If the PM intends to keep her word, can we expect her resignation later tonight?"
Only days before the media reported growing divisions in the party with funding drying up and [BBC].
The Observer reported she had been warned by her mutinous MPs that they would move to oust her if the UK was forced to take part in European elections and extend its EU membership beyond June.
The paper also reported that MPs feared many Conservatives would boycott the poll, increasing the chances of the far-right and Nigel Farage's new Brexit party [Guardian].
However there is talk, even amongst hardline UKIP supporters that they would not vote in European Elections.
Meanwhile some were calling on voters to spoil their ballot papers rather than vote for a candidate [Telegraph].
Such actions could of course benefit pro-European parties and potentially leave other parties left out in the cold should MEPs take their seats in June. And if Britain were to remain in the EU beyond October the Tories and other hardline parties may well feel rather stupid.
Extension and review
But what of the extension? The EU has put two dates on the calendar. The first date is June 20th when it will review Britain's progress on the Brexit withdrawal process.
If the Withdrawal Agreement has still not passed then MEPs with take their seats on the 2nd July.
Mid-August poses another issue. This is the approximate time by which the prime minister would need to call a general election to be held before the article 50 extension expires – in order to meet the requirements of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011, and also the timetable set out in the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013, which requires 25 working days for an election campaign.
In early September MPs will be returning from summer recess, unless recalled early, to deal with Brexit crises and contemplate any possible general election or second referendum.
And on 31st October the six-month article 50 extension will expire once again creating another new possible date for Britain's crashing out without a deal.
Trick or treat?
The choosing of Halloween as the new extension date has created many opportunities for headline writers.
The Guardian saw the new Brexit date as "very appropriate" with another column ran with the headline; "Halloween Brexit is a fitting outcome for the zombie prime minister" [Guardian].
The Halloween jokes on social media were prolific with suggestions of Jacob Rees-Mogg Halloween masks to puns on horror films such as the Exorcist, renamed Brexorcist and depicting Theresa May with her head rotated the wrong way [iNews].
Trick or treat? You couldn't quite make it up, said the BBC.
But the extension is bittersweet for all sides.
In its simplest sense, the prime minister asked for a delay so that she didn't open Pandora's Box.
Should she have revoked, as the clock ticked towards the default time that Britain was due to leave the EU on the 12th of April, she would have unleashed a wrath of fury against herself and her party.
On the other hand if she had allowed a no-deal Brexit it would likely have precipitated economic turmoil and thrown the country into uncharted waters.
After May went cap in hand to Brussels, the EU eventually said yes to a new timetable. But the new October deadline might not solve very much at all.
Impasse unlikely
There appears to be as much division within parliament as there was before and the chances of the Withdrawal Agreement passing seem as remote as ever.
Given the 'deal' cannot be changed or renegotiated, it seems rather futile discussing anything with the opposition as May has been doing.
May's red lines, of no single market or customs union, have essentially created the Withdrawal Agreement she has attempted to pass through parliament, and the particularly contentious Irish backstop.
Should she not have ruled out a customs union, the Irish backstop may well not have been necessary. But now it's too late to change since the negotiation is at an end.
And so all the extension does is to enable a little more can kicking while business and the UK population waits with just as much uncertainty as to what might happen on the 1st November.
No-deal planning
Businesses - and many individuals - have been making preparations for a no-deal Brexit for some time. Companies have been stockpiling - often at great cost in terms of storage. So too have many individuals, fearing panic buying or other disruptions to supply chains could result in shortages.
The two week delay after the March 29th Brexit date was cancelled was a slight inconvenience. But creating a six month delay creates many logistical issues for anyone stockpiling or planning for a no-deal Brexit.
Does one continue to keep a stockpile going? And if one does decide to continue, stock has to be constantly rotated especially for perishables. The government has reportedly stepped down its no-deal planning [Guardian]. But this does not necessarily guarantee a no-deal Brexit won't happen, perhaps just less likely.
For EU citizens there is no more certainty as regards their status, only that there will be a delay before they'll need to act.
For everyone that Brexit will likely affect, be it a hard no-deal Brexit or leaving on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement, the next six months only offer a brief respite and leave them in limbo.
What's next?
Theoretically, the UK could leave on Halloween, but given the previous adjustable dates of 29th March and 12th April, it's not beyond the realms of possibility of another extension later this year.
If MPs manage to break the deadlock and agree on a withdrawal agreement in good time before 31st October, the UK can leave on the first day of the month following the passing of a deal. But few believe the deal will ever pass.
As parliament went into recess for the Easter break one could be forgiven for thinking Brexit was all but over.
College Green - from where the world's media have broadcast their reports about Brexit was almost deserted on Friday morning and most of the gazebos had been taken down.
On Friday much of the news media had veered away completely from Brexit news. Indeed it reminded one of those days long ago when there was something else in the news besides Brexit.
The lull will not last of course. In two short weeks MPs return to parliament, and there will once again be a glut of opinion and debate surrounding Brexit and the upcoming European Elections that Britain is now obliged - due to the extension - to take part in.
And so the circus continues….
tvnewswatch, London, UK
Theresa May had earlier told MPs to use the Easter recess to consider their 'national duty' to resolve the Brexit crisis. But there is no sign that that will happen. Indeed, it is more likely that October will roll around without any consensus.
A comical farce
The whole sorry mess of Brexit is playing out like a comical farce as the PM Theresa May attempts to carry out her mandate to deliver Brexit.
After nearly two years of negotiation to secure a 'deal' - technically speaking just a withdrawal agreement - May has failed completely to secure support either within her own party or across the house in order that she can get it ratified.
The Withdrawal Agreement had been secured late last year but May decided not to put it before parliament before Christmas as she admitted it "would be rejected by a significant margin" [BBC].
And so off she went to Brussels to ask for changes to it despite the European Council President Donald Tusk having said the remaining 27 EU countries would not "renegotiate" the deal.
In January Theresa May put the 'deal' before parliament only to see it rejected. Again she tried in March. Once again it was rejected and she was forced to ask for an extension or either allow the UK to crash out or revoke Article 50.
The EU gave her a short extension until the 12th April. But in the two weeks after the date Britain was due to leave the EU, parliament seemed unable to come to any consensus on anything.
A whole series of indicative votes failed and 'May's deal' failed to get a majority on a third attempt.
"Please Sir, can I have some more"
Rather like a schoolboy or girl asking for more time to complete their assignment Theresa May once again, cap in hand, returned to Brussels asking for an extension [France24].
The prime minister arrived with no real reason for an extension other than she had now decided to begin discussions with the opposition party in order to break the impasse following a marathon cabinet session.
And while there was some consternation emanating from Macron on the French side, the EU eventually decided to allow an extension until the 31st of October with a review of proceedings on the 20th of June.
The dates on the calendar were particularly poignant. And the fact that an extension was granted was also odd given that May's request for one gave no concrete plan or reason.
In fact it seemed clear that while the EU could have quite legitimately refused an extension since May was essentially just asking for more time, the EU did not wish to be seen to be deliberately forcing her hand into making a decision to either revoke or jump off the cliff.
Should May have failed to revoke article 50, the EU could have been seen to have helped push the UK off the proverbial cliff.
But by allowing an extension the EU has also gone back on its stated proclamation that an extension would only be granted if there were a new plan.
Simply stating she was in talks with Corbyn does not amount to a new course of action. Even if, as some within Labour want, May shifts her red lines and shows a leaning towards a customs union, the Withdrawal Agreement is - as the EU has stated any times - still not up for renegotiation.
Even if May were to relax her hardline approach - admittedly not as hardline as the likes of the ERG want of Brexit - the extreme hardliners within her party and the DUP might be joined by the less extreme Tory Brexiters.
So the chances of pushing her 'deal' through still remain somewhat implausible.
European Elections
Following May's decision to talks with Labour, many Tories were said to "be fuming". Theresa May was now "getting into bed with a Marxist," ERG hardliner Mark Francois said on College Green after May returned with an extension.
Meanwhile others were calling for her resignation.
Furious that she had agreed to the long delay, breaking her own pledge that, "as Prime Minister", she would not delay beyond the end of June, hardline Brexiter Peter Bone said, "If the PM intends to keep her word, can we expect her resignation later tonight?"
Only days before the media reported growing divisions in the party with funding drying up and [BBC].
The Observer reported she had been warned by her mutinous MPs that they would move to oust her if the UK was forced to take part in European elections and extend its EU membership beyond June.
The paper also reported that MPs feared many Conservatives would boycott the poll, increasing the chances of the far-right and Nigel Farage's new Brexit party [Guardian].
However there is talk, even amongst hardline UKIP supporters that they would not vote in European Elections.
Meanwhile some were calling on voters to spoil their ballot papers rather than vote for a candidate [Telegraph].
Such actions could of course benefit pro-European parties and potentially leave other parties left out in the cold should MEPs take their seats in June. And if Britain were to remain in the EU beyond October the Tories and other hardline parties may well feel rather stupid.
Extension and review
But what of the extension? The EU has put two dates on the calendar. The first date is June 20th when it will review Britain's progress on the Brexit withdrawal process.
If the Withdrawal Agreement has still not passed then MEPs with take their seats on the 2nd July.
Mid-August poses another issue. This is the approximate time by which the prime minister would need to call a general election to be held before the article 50 extension expires – in order to meet the requirements of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011, and also the timetable set out in the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013, which requires 25 working days for an election campaign.
In early September MPs will be returning from summer recess, unless recalled early, to deal with Brexit crises and contemplate any possible general election or second referendum.
And on 31st October the six-month article 50 extension will expire once again creating another new possible date for Britain's crashing out without a deal.
Trick or treat?
The choosing of Halloween as the new extension date has created many opportunities for headline writers.
The Guardian saw the new Brexit date as "very appropriate" with another column ran with the headline; "Halloween Brexit is a fitting outcome for the zombie prime minister" [Guardian].
The Halloween jokes on social media were prolific with suggestions of Jacob Rees-Mogg Halloween masks to puns on horror films such as the Exorcist, renamed Brexorcist and depicting Theresa May with her head rotated the wrong way [iNews].
Trick or treat? You couldn't quite make it up, said the BBC.
But the extension is bittersweet for all sides.
In its simplest sense, the prime minister asked for a delay so that she didn't open Pandora's Box.
Should she have revoked, as the clock ticked towards the default time that Britain was due to leave the EU on the 12th of April, she would have unleashed a wrath of fury against herself and her party.
On the other hand if she had allowed a no-deal Brexit it would likely have precipitated economic turmoil and thrown the country into uncharted waters.
After May went cap in hand to Brussels, the EU eventually said yes to a new timetable. But the new October deadline might not solve very much at all.
Impasse unlikely
There appears to be as much division within parliament as there was before and the chances of the Withdrawal Agreement passing seem as remote as ever.
Given the 'deal' cannot be changed or renegotiated, it seems rather futile discussing anything with the opposition as May has been doing.
May's red lines, of no single market or customs union, have essentially created the Withdrawal Agreement she has attempted to pass through parliament, and the particularly contentious Irish backstop.
Should she not have ruled out a customs union, the Irish backstop may well not have been necessary. But now it's too late to change since the negotiation is at an end.
And so all the extension does is to enable a little more can kicking while business and the UK population waits with just as much uncertainty as to what might happen on the 1st November.
No-deal planning
Businesses - and many individuals - have been making preparations for a no-deal Brexit for some time. Companies have been stockpiling - often at great cost in terms of storage. So too have many individuals, fearing panic buying or other disruptions to supply chains could result in shortages.
The two week delay after the March 29th Brexit date was cancelled was a slight inconvenience. But creating a six month delay creates many logistical issues for anyone stockpiling or planning for a no-deal Brexit.
Does one continue to keep a stockpile going? And if one does decide to continue, stock has to be constantly rotated especially for perishables. The government has reportedly stepped down its no-deal planning [Guardian]. But this does not necessarily guarantee a no-deal Brexit won't happen, perhaps just less likely.
For EU citizens there is no more certainty as regards their status, only that there will be a delay before they'll need to act.
For everyone that Brexit will likely affect, be it a hard no-deal Brexit or leaving on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement, the next six months only offer a brief respite and leave them in limbo.
What's next?
Theoretically, the UK could leave on Halloween, but given the previous adjustable dates of 29th March and 12th April, it's not beyond the realms of possibility of another extension later this year.
If MPs manage to break the deadlock and agree on a withdrawal agreement in good time before 31st October, the UK can leave on the first day of the month following the passing of a deal. But few believe the deal will ever pass.
As parliament went into recess for the Easter break one could be forgiven for thinking Brexit was all but over.
College Green - from where the world's media have broadcast their reports about Brexit was almost deserted on Friday morning and most of the gazebos had been taken down.
On Friday much of the news media had veered away completely from Brexit news. Indeed it reminded one of those days long ago when there was something else in the news besides Brexit.
The lull will not last of course. In two short weeks MPs return to parliament, and there will once again be a glut of opinion and debate surrounding Brexit and the upcoming European Elections that Britain is now obliged - due to the extension - to take part in.
And so the circus continues….
tvnewswatch, London, UK
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