2008 leaves little to rejoice about

Oil prices, China, the US election & a global recession dominated 2008

2008 has been an eventful year but perhaps it is the cataclysmic events that have left the most lasting of memories. January saw the price of oil pass the $100 per barrel mark. The month also saw a stand off between Iranian forces and US warships over territorial water disputes. The year also started with Israeli incursions into Gaza leaving nearly 50 Palestinians dead. Financial markets were also rocked after rogue trader Jerome Kerviel lost more than €4.9 billion for the French bank Societe Generale in what at the time was described as a “large scale internal fraud” by President Sarkozy.

China saw the beginning of what was a turbulent year after thousands became stranded in the worst snow storms the country had seen for years. The clear up continued well into February and left dozens dead. The US also experienced rare February storms which left around 60 dead. The New York Philharmonic Orchestra played a rare concert in North Korea to soften the diplomatic tension between the two countries. But tensions continued in many other countries. Violent clashes occurred in Serbia and Kosovo after the latter declared its independence and bombings continued to wreak havoc in Iraq and Pakistan.

In March Dmitry Medvedev won the Russian election but was widely seen as Putin’s puppet. Attempts at developing a peace process in the Middle East once again fell on stony ground and incursions and terrorist attacks continued. China returned to the headlines after riots in Tibet left up to 100 dead and the fallout became a PR disaster for the country after protests followed the Olympic torch around the globe during April. There were further troubles after a train crash in Shandong province left 70 dead.

May became a cause for celebration for many Londoners after Boris Johnson won the Mayoral election. But it was the natural disaster in Myanmar which dominated headlines after a cyclone left thousands dead and without help as the country’s dictatorship refused foreign aid. China was the next victim after a massive earthquake struck Sichuan province. Around 80,000 died in the earthquake and a quarter of a million were injured, but China was far more accepting of foreign help, though it was less appreciative of the criticism of its building regulations after it emerged many schools appeared to have been badly built. May also saw oil rise beyond $135 per barrel leaving many motorists around the world with increased running costs.

June brought further rises in the price of fuel and tanker strikes in Britain which nearly saw the pumps run dry. Zimbabwe was once again in the news after Robert Mugabe stole another election. But in the US election Hillary Clinton finally conceded defeat in her bid as Democratic candidate and endorsed Barack Obama. China once again suffered the wrath of nature’s power after floods left millions homeless and more than a hundred dead.

July saw violence return to Israel after a man used a tractor to unleash an attack on civilians. Four were killed and nearly 40 were injured before the man was shot dead by police. Bomb attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan left more than 60 dead. July also saw the first signs of the impending recession after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ran into trouble and stock markets around the world began to fluctuate wildly. But it was the Olympics which hit the headlines as August arrived. However, despite the show of the century, the media could not help but criticise the poor air quality, the arrests of foreign journalists and highlight terrorist attacks that struck in parts of the country.

As the US election campaign got into full swing the financial crisis began to bite hard and one institution after another began to fold. China was also suffering from its own crisis after it was revealed that milk had been contaminated with the industrial chemical melamine leaving thousands sick and at least four babies dead. But it was the financial downturn that gripped most people’s attention well into October. Almost everyday there was further bad news as one company after another announced it was running into financial difficulty.

November brought with it a moment of history after Barack Obama became the first black American President. But the celebrations were short lived as the reality of the deepening financial crisis set in. There was further tragedy after Pakistani terrorists killed dozens on the streets of Mumbai in India. A three day siege ensued and around 156 were killed. India was left reeling from the attacks and there were calls from many to retaliate against Pakistan. THere was no retaliation, though tensions remain high between the two nuclear powers.

December saw Greece gripped by riots after police shot a young teenager dead. Zimbabwe, already suffering from financial collapse, was now becoming the victim of a cholera pandemic which Mugabe blamed on the West. But the West was more concerned with its own demise as one company after another shut its doors. For many retailers it was far from a very merry Christmas as many were forced to slash prices in order to drum up trade. And in the Middle East, the birthplace of Christ, it ended much as it had begun with Israeli bombardments on Gaza and with tanks preparing to roll into the Palestinian territory.

Mugabe defiant as cholera kills 1,100

Robert Mugabe declared Zimbabwe belonged only to him adding that only Zimbabweans could remove him from office. An election, perceived by many as flawed, failed to remove the leader earlier this year and since then Mugabe has become all the more belligerent. He has accused other African leaders and the West of plotting invasions and even of causing the current cholera pandemic. His statement today seems only to reveal how out of touch and perhaps paranoid the African leader truly is. “Zimbabwe is mine” he told members of Zanu-PF party conference. “I will never, never, never surrender ... Zimbabwe belongs to us, not the British” he continued.

The collapse of the country has begun to rally African leaders together in a call for Mugabe to stand dow. Already Botswana and Kenya have called for action and on Friday Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade became the latest senior African politician calling for Mr Mugabe to quit. He told the French newspaper, La Croix, that he had supported Robert Mugabe in the past but was forming the view that the president was now the cause of his country's problems [BBC].

And the problems are more than clear. With massive inflation, huge unemployment the economy has all but collapsed [CNN]. There is little in the shops and now a series health problem is threatening not only the Zimbabwean population but also that of its neighbours. Manuel Lopez Iglesias of MSF told Channel Four News there were bodies everywhere and described conditions as medieval. The death toll has risen to more than 1,100 with more than 20,000 infected by the deadly disease. But the figures may be much higher with both health workers and media unable to operate freely in the country.

Of course the demise of Zimbabwe is not a major threat to the West and fails to attract the same attention as the threat of terrorism and rogue states. Help only arrives in the form of aid agencies such as the UN, Médecins Sans Frontières and the ICRC. Even media reports are scant. Channel Four News devoted less than two minutes to the story in its half hour programme and though Sky News and the BBC cover the story it is often buried. CNN and al Jazeera have been more prominent with their reporting. The Arabic station has a greater advantage of being able to operate in the country and bring viewers a broader perspective. Tonight the story topped al Jazeera's headlines. But for other broadcasters the story was way down the list. Zimbabwe is in danger not only of destroying itself, but doing so while no-one watches and does even less

Cholera pandemic worsens in Zimbabwe

World leaders have called on Robert Mugabe to step down as the cholera pandemic worsens in Zimbabwe. At least 600 have so far died though some suggest the figure may be far higher. Hospitals and health clinics are at crisis point, many unable to provide even the most basic care besides claims by the government that the “cholera situation is under control”. The World Health Organisation have said that more than half a million people are at risk from contracting the disease and the ICRC are attempting to mount operations to deliver medicine and other supplies.

But despite the disease threatening to spread beyond Zimbabwe’s borders few African leaders have called for Mugabe to resign his office. On the border with South Africa there are makeshift refugee camps filled with victims of the outbreak. "I think it's going to get worse," Kgetsa Nare, from the South African Red Cross, told the BBC, "We've got between 500 and 1,000 people crossing every day, and most of them are sick, many with cholera". Eight people have died in South Africa alone, and in Zambia which borders Zimbabwe, one has died in the town of Chirundu. Botswana too is said to be on high alert as one Zimbabwean is being treated for the disease.

One African country that has made continued calls for ousting Mugabe is Botswana. The country’s foreign minister, Phandu Skelemani, said in a recent radio interview that if neighbouring countries closed their borders with the landlocked country, President Robert Mugabe's 28 year rule would end in a week. "If no petrol went in for a week, he can't last," Skelemani said. He expressed little confidence in the SADC mediation process being led by former South African president Thabo Mbeki, and said the SADC should "own up" and admit it had failed. President Ian Khama of Botswana has been one of Mugabe's staunchest critics, even though both countries are among the 14 members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

The worsening situation which some have likened to genocide has prompted some to call for even more drastic action. Former Archbishop and Nobel peace laureate Desmond Tutu has called for the use of military force if Mugabe does not step down. "If they say to him, 'step down' and he refuses, they must go in ... militarily," Tutu said in an interview with a Dutch television programme on 4th December.

And there was even calls to physically oust Mugabe with force from Kenya which has seen its own troubles in recent months. Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga called for Mugabe's removal during an interview with the BBC on the same day Desmond Tutu spoke out. "Power-sharing is dead in Zimbabwe and will not work with a dictator who does not really believe in power-sharing. It's time for African governments to take decisive action to push him out of power".

The rhetoric and calls for Mugabe to step down has seemingly only strengthened the leaders resolve and prompting him to accuse the West of plotting colonialist invasions [BBC].
But when the disease spreads well inside the borders of South Africa, action may follow. It will not be calls by other African leaders and archbishops, nor protestations by Condoleezza Rice, George Bush or Gordon Brown, that will motivate South Africa to mount any action. It will only be the threat to its own security.