China's COVID wave has spurred fears that a dangerous new variant could emerge which "could be more contagious, more deadly, or evade drugs, vaccines and detection".
The warning comes as a tsunami of COVID-19 infections sweep across China with speculation that the wave could see more than a million die [Time / CNN].
The situation in China is unique because of the path it has followed throughout the pandemic. While almost every other part of the world has battled infections and embraced vaccinations with potent mRNA shots to varying degrees, China largely sidestepped both. The result is a population with low levels of immunity facing a wave of disease caused by the most contagious strain of the virus yet to circulate.
According to official sources, Chinese cities are currently being hit by the highly transmissible Omicron strain, mostly BF.7 which is the main variant spreading in Beijing and is contributing to a wider surge of COVID infections in the country.
BF.7 is a sub-lineage of the Omicron variant BA.5, and has the strongest infection ability since it is highly transmissible, has a shorter incubation period, and a higher capacity to cause reinfection or infect even those who are vaccinated.
The BF.7 strain has been found in several other countries, including the US and UK and European nations such as Belgium, Germany, France and Denmark. Recently it has also recently been detected in India.
However there is rising concern the wave of infections sweeping through China could spawn a new more deadly variant.
"There will certainly be more omicron subvariants developing in China in the coming days, weeks and months, but what the world must anticipate in order to recognize it early and take rapid action is a completely new variant of concern," says Daniel Lucey, a fellow at the Infectious Diseases Society of America and professor at Dartmouth University's Geisel School of Medicine. "It could be more contagious, more deadly, or evade drugs, vaccines and detection from existing diagnostics."
This is concerning enough. But even more concerning is that studies into sequencing changes in the virus has dropped significantly in the last few months. Fewer people are testing, fewer samples are being taken and as a result laboratories around the world are receiving fewer samples to analyse.
The global pullback from sequencing COVID could mean a new, possibly more dangerous variant evades detection until it's spreading widely. The pandemic that much of the West has thought to be largely over could just be beginning.
Even if a new variant fails to emerge, the toll on China's economy could have dramatic repercussions in other ways.
The US is already raising concerns that the chaos brought about by the wave of infections in China could seriously hurt the global economy and further constrain corporate supply chains.
In a world already turned upside down by the pandemic and more recently by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, any significant collapse of China's economy could be devastating.
[Sources: The Wire / CBS / Financial Post / Business Today / Reuters / NCBI / Daniele Focosi, MD PhD MSc : Twitter ]
The warning comes as a tsunami of COVID-19 infections sweep across China with speculation that the wave could see more than a million die [Time / CNN].
The situation in China is unique because of the path it has followed throughout the pandemic. While almost every other part of the world has battled infections and embraced vaccinations with potent mRNA shots to varying degrees, China largely sidestepped both. The result is a population with low levels of immunity facing a wave of disease caused by the most contagious strain of the virus yet to circulate.
According to official sources, Chinese cities are currently being hit by the highly transmissible Omicron strain, mostly BF.7 which is the main variant spreading in Beijing and is contributing to a wider surge of COVID infections in the country.
BF.7 is a sub-lineage of the Omicron variant BA.5, and has the strongest infection ability since it is highly transmissible, has a shorter incubation period, and a higher capacity to cause reinfection or infect even those who are vaccinated.
The BF.7 strain has been found in several other countries, including the US and UK and European nations such as Belgium, Germany, France and Denmark. Recently it has also recently been detected in India.
However there is rising concern the wave of infections sweeping through China could spawn a new more deadly variant.
"There will certainly be more omicron subvariants developing in China in the coming days, weeks and months, but what the world must anticipate in order to recognize it early and take rapid action is a completely new variant of concern," says Daniel Lucey, a fellow at the Infectious Diseases Society of America and professor at Dartmouth University's Geisel School of Medicine. "It could be more contagious, more deadly, or evade drugs, vaccines and detection from existing diagnostics."
This is concerning enough. But even more concerning is that studies into sequencing changes in the virus has dropped significantly in the last few months. Fewer people are testing, fewer samples are being taken and as a result laboratories around the world are receiving fewer samples to analyse.
The global pullback from sequencing COVID could mean a new, possibly more dangerous variant evades detection until it's spreading widely. The pandemic that much of the West has thought to be largely over could just be beginning.
Even if a new variant fails to emerge, the toll on China's economy could have dramatic repercussions in other ways.
The US is already raising concerns that the chaos brought about by the wave of infections in China could seriously hurt the global economy and further constrain corporate supply chains.
In a world already turned upside down by the pandemic and more recently by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, any significant collapse of China's economy could be devastating.
[Sources: The Wire / CBS / Financial Post / Business Today / Reuters / NCBI / Daniele Focosi, MD PhD MSc : Twitter ]
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