War of words as nations argue over human rights

In the history of the world there have been abhorrent abuses of people’s human rights. The abuses of medieval ages are past, but well into the 21st century human beings are still subject to torture, unjust incarceration, harassment or worse.

Such abuses are often detailed in reports from various organisations, including Amnesty International, Reporters Sans Frontières and Liberty.

Nation states also release reports detailing such abuses. However such reports often stir up consternation with other countries cited in such reports. At particular loggerheads are the United States and China who often engage in a tit-for-tat war of words over human rights abuses, amongst other issues.

US points finger at Syria, Russia & China

This week the US’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor published its annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2013 [BBC].

This year is particularly poignant since it is marked by the 65th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. But as the papers released by the State Department clearly detail, human rights abuses still continue.

While the main focus was the ongoing rights abuses in Syria, particularly singled out in the US report were Russia [PDF], that “continues to curb civil society and political opposition and target marginalized populations, including religious and ethnic minorities”, and China [PDF] for its “lack of judicial independence” which the US said “has fueled a state-directed crackdown on activists and suppression of political dissent and public advocacy.” 

In addition to the US report the US Ambassador also added his voice to the debate and called on China to respect human rights [Daily Mail].

But Russia and China were just to two biggest countries accused of abusing human rights. Ukraine which has seen a turbulent few weeks was also detailed in the report with its former government accused of exerting “increased pressure on civil society, journalists, and protesters calling for government accountability and a future with Europe.”

There were also concerns raised about Cuba and Egypt where their respective governments also “used excessive force to quell peaceful protests and dissent.” [Summary PDF]

China upset at "arbitrary & irresponsible attacks"

China, it appears, took umbrage at the US report and responded with its own dossier detailing the abuses by the United States [VoA].

In its response, published via China’s state run news agency Xinhua, the State Department of the United States was criticised for making “arbitrary attacks and irresponsible remarks” on the human rights situation in almost 200 countries and regions.

“The US carefully concealed and avoided mentioning its own human rights problems,” Xinhua notes, and goes on to list what it calls “serious human rights problems in the US”.

It talks of America’s lack of personal security due to the “increasing number of violent crimes in 2013 with frequent occurrence of firearms-related criminal cases.”

“American citizens' lives and personal safety are threatened by an increasingly dangerous environment,” the report states. 

The Xinhua report points particularly at US surveillance of its citizens, highlighting the revelations exposed by whistleblower Edward Snowdon.

“The US government took liberty in monitoring its citizens, which shocked the world,” the article lambasts.

China also accused the US of tortures in its prisons and claimed that electoral systems were “plagued by malpractices and inefficiency”.

The US is accused of flagrant disregard for life with its drone strikes in Pakistan and Afghanistan which have left countless civilians dead or maimed.

Truth & contradictions

Both reports have certain elements of truth, but just as China accuses the US of having “carefully concealed and avoided mentioning its own human rights problems”, so too did China fail to acknowledge its own breaches of citizens rights.

Indeed both nations could be accused of being a pot calling the kettle black.

The US democratic system is perhaps far from perfect, and there may well be instances of corruption. However there is no democracy in China at all and little if any way of seeking help or representation from one’s politicians. In fact any attempt to lobby or petition the Chinese government often results in a prison sentence.

It might also be true to say that many people are badly treated with the United States’ prison system Indeed, the Guantanamo detention facility did nothing to raise the image of the country in the eyes of civil rights campaigners.

However, China locks many people up in appalling conditions, following trial which are far from open and just.

As for monitoring and surveillance, both nations are as guilty as each other. In fact all nations may well carry out surveillance in order to protect its interests. What is different is that in the west, Snowdon’s revelations are public and open for debate. Similar discussions in China would likely be deemed as “subversion of the state” and result in lengthy prison sentences for any transgressors. Can one imagine an organisation similar to the ACLU, with its slogan “Because Freedom Can’t Protect Itself”, existing in China?

Casting stones

The use of drones is certainly a valid criticism. But for a nation that fails to recognise or even acknowledge the 1989 Tiananmen massacre, which left hundreds dead, or the great famine that saw millions die in the late 1950s and early 1960s, such criticisms are rather hollow.

The Cold War, and war of words that once used to exist between the West and Russia certainly seems to shifted further east.

But both sides need to take stock concerning these issues. Perhaps they might take note from scripture. As Jesus is once quoted as saying, "let he who is without sin, cast the first stone" [John 8:7]. The contect of his statement may have been different [See Wikipedia] but the basic principle stands.

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Virtual currency concerns as MtGox shuts shop

This week saw a tumultuous upset in the currency market, though it was a story mostly consigned to the business columns of financial broadsheets. The story was that Bitcoin, a virtual currency, may soon be consigned to the virtual scrapheap [Telegraph].

MtGox shuts down

One of the biggest Bitcoin Exchanges, MtGox, had gone offline and was informing its customers that “in light of recent news reports and the potential repercussions on MtGox's operations and the market, a decision was taken to close all transactions for the time being in order to protect the site and our users.”

The exchange had already been hit by technical issues and recently halted all customer withdrawals of the digital currency after it spotted what it called "unusual activity".

But while six other major Bitcoin exchanges issued a joint statement distancing themselves from MtGox, the move to shut down such a large enterprise is a setback for backers of Bitcoin, who have been pushing for greater adoption of the currency.

The Bitcoin has had a shaky history, least of all to do with the security issues that are intrinsically tied into a virtual currency. Only days before MtGox shut shop the Financial Times was questioning whether the currency was “brilliant or bonkers”

The virtual currency went up 5,580% in price last year, which rather puts 30% equity market returns in their place, the FT’s New York correspondent Stephen Foley observed.

Such increases have raised eyebrows and prompted some individuals to make potentially unwise financial decisions. A growing number of people have been asking “what is Bitcoin?” and “should I buy some?”- but at Foley suggests, not necessarily in that order.

Given the unease concerning security, potential DDoS attacks on servers, reports of Bitcoin theft and huge fluctuations in Bitcoin’s value, one might have thought most rational people would have steered clear. Granted, it is not easy for governments to trace, thus the virtual currency has been linked to tax evasion, money laundering, and various transactions connected to illegal activity from drugs to arms dealing. As such governments are looking carefully at how they might control Bitcoin.

Crypto-currencies

Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a mysterious computer scientist with the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, who conceived it as an alternative to government-controlled currencies and a means to transfer money quickly, cheaply and anonymously outside the slow, expensive and highly regulated international banking system.

Bitcoins are no more unusual in theory than Air Miles, Nectar points, or credits in online games, except that they can be transferred easily between people and used to pay anyone who wants to accept them, giving them greater currency than loyalty schemes.

The supposed maximum ceiling is 21 million Bitcoins, a built-in scarcity, a little like the gold standard, which is one of the main reasons the price has been driven up, as speculators anticipate greater use of a fixed pool of currency.

However after MtGox went offline the price dropped as concerns rose as to the future of the currency [BBC]. Others who trade in the currency tried to mitigate the damage. The closure of the site did not "reflect the resilience or value of Bitcoin", said a statement from representatives of several other Bitcoin exchanges, including Coinbase and BTC China.

"This tragic violation of the trust of users of MtGox was the result of one company's actions.

"As with any new industry, there are certain bad actors that need to be weeded out, and that is what we are seeing today.” [Business Week]

Repercussions

The Bitcoin might not quite be dead, but its value has slumped in the last month by almost half. Indeed it may well be a life or death moment for this virtual coin [BBC].

The latest reports have perhaps hit home and warned off investors about what some are calling the most dangerous currency in the world [Telegraph].

But Bitcoin isn’t the only virtual currency. An interesting graphic posted by the FT on its Google+ page illustrates several other currencies such as Catcoin, Dogecoin, Litecoin, Peercoin and Nxt.

Whether these virtual cryptocurrencies are any more or less secure, the MtGox shut down has affected them all [IBTimes].

According to the website CoinMarketCap, which monitors the market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies, the various digital currencies have shown drops of anywhere between 10% and 40% for the digital currencies listed.

As regards the Bitcoin itself it has seen its value rise from $14 for a single Bitcoin to around $850 throughout 2013. But such large inflation has prompted many analysts to suggest short-term speculation is creating a Bitcoin bubble.

And where there are bubbles, there are often crashes. The danger is that even a crash in a virtual currency could cause fluctuations in real financial markets, depending how much money is tied up in the virtual currency.

Concerns

Governments are perhaps rightly cautious about these new virtual currencies, not only because of the legal concerns, but also for knock-on effects on the real economy should these cryptocurrencies fail [Guardian].

But it is not just economists and governments that are raising concerns. Many comments on social networks show that the general public are still quite sceptical about such currencies.

As one man wrote on the FT’s Google+ page, “I am not an economist, but I was much happier when money was based on some physical and tangible commodity like gold. If we decide money is whatever we accept as money then  we may as well go back to barter or collecting sea shells.”

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Dalai Lama visit prompts war of words with China

China has once again been flexing its muscles and either dictating, or attempting to dictate, the new agenda this week.

Even before the Dalai Lama stepped off the plane in the US this week, China was already rattling a sabre saying that there would be consequences should President Obama meet with the spiritual leader.

Of course such threats were largely ignored by Washington, and were essentially out of China’s control.

Media controls

Meanwhile in China itself, authorities clamped down on media freedom once again, blocking CNN several times throughout the week during its In China series which focused on press freedom.

The roundtable discussion, hosted by CNN’s Kristie Lu Stout, featured The Wall Street Journal’s China bureau chief Charles Hutzler, Foreign Correspondents Club president and Christian Science Monitor correspondent Peter Ford, and Hong Kong University journalism academic Ying Chan.

However, the show was blocked within minutes as it went to air on Wednesday [The Australian]. It is perhaps unsurprising in a country that blocks most western social media websites and controls most of the news output at a central level.

China is ranked at 173 in the most recent World Press Freedom Index due in part to its track record for imprisoning journalists and censoring the Internet The situation also shows little sign of improving. There is no free discussion or an ability to air opposing views without attracting the attention of the authorities.

Reporting risks

Those that attempt to bring change often find themselves in court and imprisoned for years on end. Last month activist Xu Zhiyong found himself in court accused of having "gathered a crowd to disturb public order" after a series of small protests where demonstrators had unfurled banners in Beijing calling for officials to publicly declare their assets [CNN].

Western media who attempted to cover the trial found themselves targeted by police who manhandled several TV crews. A CNN crew was prevented from approaching and filming the court house and CNN's Beijing correspondent, David McKenzie, was kicked, pushed and punched by Chinese security before being forced into a nearby van and driven away.

“The government makes it much more difficult” to cover “the big stories” The Wall Street Journal’s China bureau chief Charles Hutzler told CNN. “And it's gotten much worse in recent years," Hultzer added [CNN].

While western media battles to get the news, it doesn’t face the problems experienced by China’s growing number of investigative journalists. They face battles not only in finding the truth behind the countless number of corruption cases, but also a battle in getting the story published.

Censorship, threats & violence

One such investigator, Wang Keqin, says the biggest problem he faces is not the threats, but the censorship imposed either by the media outlets themselves or the authorities directly.

“China today ought to be a paradise for investigative journalists, the unprecedented amount of shady deals that are happening here is beyond your imagination.” However, Wang has been warned off by officials, paid thugs, and many editors refuse to touch his stories.

He is one of a number of investigators who have been forced out of their jobs. But Wangs says this is only part of the problem. “Our biggest enemy is not physical threats, it’s censorship.”

“What they really need is a good editor in chief who’s willing to sacrifice for the story.”

For western journalists too there is a cost to trying to report the story. In recent years photographers and cameramen have particularly become the target of violence where in some cases their cameras are confiscated or smashed.

There are also inhibiting effects of so-called visa wars where journalists and reporters have had their visas refused or revoked. Both Bloomberg and the New York Times faced restrictions following the publication of stories which highlighted the financial affairs of top politicians and their family members.

Propaganda war

Clearly there is a propaganda war too. And the Dalai Lama’s visit highlighted this very strongly as Xinhua published dozens of articles criticising US policy, the Dalai Lama himself and those who seek Tibetan independence.

But while western media might publish both points of view, China’s media tends only to air the sanctioned view of the state.

China called on the US to hold back from meeting the spiritual leader saying he was engaged in “anti-China secessionist moves” [Xinhua].

Indeed Xinhua went on to describe the White House as becoming a “bully pulpit for Tibetan secessionists” and said the decision to meet the Dalai Lama was “both regrettable and harmful” as well as marking “a flagrant breach of Washington's pledge to refrain from interfering in China's domestic affairs

In another commentary published by Xinhua, the meeting was dubbed a “lose lose deal” that would harm Sino-US relations.

No middle ground

“While it is doomed to fail in its attempt to press for "Tibet independence," or the "middle way" approach that the high monk preaches, the third Obama-Dalai Lama in five years, planned at the White House Friday, is certain to harm China-U.S. relations,” the commentary read.

The US went ahead with its meeting regardless, but did nonetheless acknowledge China’s concerns.

In a statement the Obama administration said it supported the Dalai Lama's "Middle Way" approach to the political tensions over protests for Tibetan independence.

"The United States recognizes Tibet to be a part of the People's Republic of China and we do not support Tibetan independence," said National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden. "The United States strongly supports human rights and religious freedom in China."

"We are concerned about continuing tensions and the deteriorating human rights situation in Tibetan areas of China," Hayden added. "We will continue to urge the Chinese government to resume dialogue with the Dalai Lama or his representatives, without preconditions, as a means to reduce tensions."  [CNN]

China for its part rejects the Dalai Lama’s “Middle Way” and the US’s support for saying the approach is “at odds with China's constitution and state system in every conceivable way” and that “It is nothing but smoke and mirrors, camouflage and deceit.” [Xinhua]

The debates on this and other issues are fraught with problems. In China there is no real debate, indeed it is one sided, and opposing or dissenting views or opinions are blocked. In the West both sides of the debate may be covered and discussed, but such discussions will not effect any change.

Those who need to hear the arguments, indeed rarely hear the counter argument. It is a situation brought about by a state that fear change, or an upset to the status quo.

But perhaps with the ongoing political and violent protest seen in the Ukraine these last few weeks, Beijing is justifiably cautious in allowing too much debate.


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Scotland's long fight for independence

While Britain reels over the continuing bad weather than has seen hurricane strength winds and almost constant rain for weeks there is another storm brewing in Scotland of a political kind, that of Scottish independence.

The Scottish government set out its plan for how Scotland would operate as an independent country, subject to a yes vote in this year's independence referendum. The 670-page White Paper on independence was hailed by First Minister Alex Salmond as being "Scotland's future in Scotland's hands".

The re-balancing of Scotland's economy, by increasing manufacturing, is noted as a priority. But should Scotland become an independent state, it may face some serious challenges.

In the last few days all parties in Westminster have said the pound may not shared with the Scots [D Mail].

Indeed with independence, Scotland may find itself not only politically independent but financially independent. This could create problems on both sides of the border with Scotland having to decide whether to join the euro or creating its own separate currency.

Some small business owners feel that independence would be an attractive proposition whilst others believe independence may come at a cost. "On the face of it, I would say with regard to small businesses it looks quite attractive," one business owner told the BBC in November as plans for a referendum were published. Another voice raised concern, saying, "Can the country really afford it?" [BBC]

Long fight for independence

Scotland joined the union in the early 17th century following the Anglo-Scottish Wars, a series of wars fought between the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotland. This culminated with the Union of the Crowns in 1603.

This was the last major battle between the two Kingdoms, but Scotland had been warring with England for more than a thousand years prior to this. Indeed one of Scotland’s most famous characters in history is Robert the Bruce who won a major victory over the English in 1307 at the Battle of Loudoun Hill. Robert fought successfully during his reign to regain Scotland's place as an independent nation, and even today he is remembered in Scotland as a national hero.

However battles continued between both countries for the next three centuries until Scotland eventually succumbed to English dominance.

Now after some 400 years Scotland may be reasserting itself. But this time the battle battle will be fought at the ballot box rather than in a battle field.

Financial hurdles

For many Scots independence will be welcome. But economically there maybe many difficulties ahead. With Chancellor George Osborne having make clear that Scotland could not keep the pound, an independent Scotland will face many hurdles [BBC].

Speaking in Edinburgh, Osborne said, "The pound isn't an asset to be divided up between two countries after a breakup like a CD collection...If Scotland walks away from the UK, it walks away from the UK pound."

In such a scenario, an independent Scotland would be more exposed to risks from the "volatile" energy and finance industries according to some analysts.

However, it has been widely suggested that an independent Scotland would not be obliged to take a share of UK debts. This could be a contentious issue on both sides of the border.

The UK's national debt in January 2012 stood at £988.7 billion. This excluded bank bailouts. Scotland's GDP per capita is only slightly below the UK's average, standing at about 98.7% of the UK average, so it might be a reasonable approximation to divide this debt evenly by population.

Thus, given Scotland has a population of around 5.1 million of the UK's 62.2 million people, its share of the debt would be about £81 billion. However, UK debt has increased over the past two years and may rise further still.

Should an independent Scotland be obliged to pay off its past debts, there will undoubtedly be some resentment. Conversely, should Scotland be allowed to walk away from these debts, there may be just as much resentment down south.

The oil question

Alex Salmond has hinged much of his economic dream on North Sea oil. However, according to the latest monthly report from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries [Opec], the average oil output in 2013 from the North Sea registered its lowest level since 1977.

This represented a roughly 10% decline from the previous year of 90 thousand barrels per day [tb/d] and could undermine the arguments a number of Scottish nationalists regarding the North Sea oil and gas cash cow which would be available to Scots.

The revenues are significant, though the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility [OBR] predict oil revenue will drop from £6.7 billion in 2013 to £4.1 billion by 2017-18.

The bigger issue at hand is whether such reserves would willinngly be handed to an independent Scotland by Westminster. Under the present arrangement, oil tax revenues are assigned to an economic region set up by the UK government, which is called the UK Continental Shelf [UKCS].

This means that oil resources are not officially assigned to Scotland but instead to a region distinct from the British mainland.

But if Scotland were to become independent, and a sovereign state, it might expect the UKCS to be divided up on a "geographical" basis.

Westminster might try to negotiate a Median Line approach; drawing a dividing line on which all points are the same distance from the Scottish and rest of the UK coastline. This would be similar to the approach used to determine the boundary between Scotland and the rest of the UK for fisheries after devolution in 1999.

No discussion has yet taken place between the UK and Scottish governments on the detail of what would happen to oil revenues should Scotland achieve independence [BBC / Guardian / IBT].

Growing economy

Scotland’s GDP stood at £148.73 billion in 2013, though this included revenues from North Sea oil and gas. But even aside from energy reserves, its GDP is strong.

When thinking of Scotland many have images of Whisky, haggis and lochness monsters. But Scotland also has a thriving economy currently growing at around 0.7% per annum.

Beyond its claims on North Sea gas and oil reserves, Scotland also does well in agriculture, banking & finance, the computing sector, construction, fishing, shipbuilding, textiles, tourism as well, of course the production of its most famous of exports, Scottish Whisky.

Indeed whisky is probably the best known of Scotland's manufactured products with exports having increased by 87% in the past decade and currently contributing over £4.25 billion to the UK economy. Indeed should the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility [OBR] be correct in its projected drop in oil and gas revenues, whisky may surpass profits made from North Sea Oil ! [Wikipedia]

Scotland will likely do well on its own. The difficulties it will face will be more a psychological one as the North-South divide becomes a little wide with a potential rift growing between the English and Scots once again.

Forced to join euro?

Even without any real antagonism, England might feel even more isolated within Europe should Scotland join the euro. It would leave only Wales and Northern Ireland still using the pound, apart from a few outlying islands such as Guernsey, Jersey and the Falklands.

Scotland’s acceptance of the euro is a very real prospect, post-independence, at least according to some commentators. Writing in the Telegraph Andrew Lilico, an Economist with Europe Economics, and a member of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, suggests that Scotland would essentially be forced to accepting the euro if it wanted to remain in the EU due to financial rules already laid down.

At the end of the day it will be the Scottish people who will decide the direction they wish to go.  

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Floods hit east Britain

Those in the the east of Britain might have thought they had escaped the flooding that has plagued much of the south-west and brought misery to hundreds of thousand of families and businesses. However that all changed this week as incessant rain finally forced river levels up to the point where many burst their banks.

While not as serious as the situation seen in Somerset and other parts of the south-west, for many the resultant floods were just as upsetting and disruptive for many.

Essex was one of the worst hit counties in the east especially to the north-west of the county. The river at the picturesque village of Finchingfield burst its banks after torrential rain fell on Thursday night. By the following morning the village had a what resembled a large lake instead of a river. Teenagers joyfully cycled through the water which was more than a metre deep in parts, though local businesses looked on concerned as water levels lapped at their doors.

The B1053 which runs from Wethersfield, through Finchingfield, to Saffron Walden was almost impassable at many points and several vehicles became stuck.

The owner of one BMW needed the assistance of a local man to tow him to safety using his Range Rover after becoming stuck in water more than half a metre deep [pictured].

Many motorists failed to take the advice of the local fire service which were called to dozens of incidents where cars had become stranded. The Essex County Fire and Rescue Service urged drivers to exercise “a little common sense and consideration” when confronted with flooded roads.

Not only were drivers creating problems for themselves, they were also creating problems for others. Inconsiderate motorists continued to drive into water, creating waves which pushed water into homes near the road and in some cases trapping themselves, their passengers and their vehicles in the water.

Assistant Divisional Officer Dave Moore, who was on scene at several flooding incidents, said, “It beggars belief, we have signs telling motorists the roads are closed and instead of stopping and finding another way around they are accelerating into the water.”

“This creates a wave which pushes water from the road into people’s homes. It is both inconsiderate and stupid. There are fire crews, signs saying the road is closed and deep water in the road and that is not enough to stop people driving into water.”

Just 60 cm of water is enough to float a car and 15 cm of water will reach the bottom of most passenger cars. This depth can cause loss of control or possible stalling as water is sucked into the exhaust or washes into the air intake. “When confronted with flood water the best thing to do is to find an alternative route,” ADO Dave Moore added.

Fire crews meanwhile attended multiple flooding incidents in the Saffron Walden, Newport and Stansted areas of the county. In Saffron Walden soldiers from the nearby Carver Barracks added support to those affected by the floods, helping to sandbag properties [BBC].  

The occupants of 20 flats in Radwinter Road, Saffron Walden, were helped to safety by fire crews. Across the north of the county thousands of pupils were also affected having been sent home because of the flooding.

Meanwhile the Environment Agency issued flood warnings for five rivers; the Stour, Brook, Chelmer, Colne and Box. The flood risk is unlikely to diminish in the coming days as the Met Office forecast heavy rain for much of next week.

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Ten injured after explosion at Essex house

Ten people were injured in a suspected gas explosion that virtually destroyed two houses on a street in Clacton, Essex.

A man in his 70s and a woman in her 50s were badly burnt in the fire that followed and were flown by an air ambulance to Broomfield Hospital in what was initially described as a serious condition. Both were later said to be "stable".

Emergency services were on the scene with minutes of the blast, though some local residents had already mounted their own rescue attempts dragging victims from the wrecked houses.

Debris was strewn over a wide area and into adjacent streets damaging cars and breaking windows of several houses. A power outage also forced the local school to close. Police evacuated several homes close to the scene though most were allowed to return later in the day.

Fearing there might be others buried beneath the rubble Search and Rescue teams scoured the scene with dogs. Fortunately no further people were found.

All the emergency services described it a miracle that no-one was killed. Meanwhile late into Wednesday evening Essex police were continuing to work with Essex County Fire & Rescue Service to establish the cause of the explosion.

BBC / Guardian / Telegraph / D Mail / Mirror / Daily Star / Express

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Banker "targeted" in shooting at Essex station

A 44-year-old banker was shot in a station car park in what police believe was a targeted attack. The man received a gunshot injury to the leg after the assailant wearing a balaclava shot him before fleeing the scene.

The victim, who has been named as Robin Clark, a broker with City firm RP Martin, got out of his car in Mount Avenue car park behind Shenfield station, Essex, and was approached by a balaclava-wearing man at around 05:51 GMT. He was taken to Basildon hospital to receive treatment, though police said his condition was not life-threatening.

Meanwhile police carried out a detailed examination of the scene before removing Mr Clark's vehicle, a Ford S-Max, on a lorry. Speaking about the incident Detective Superintendent Gary Richardson said, "At this stage we believe the victim of this assault was deliberately targeted."

"We do not believe this incident was gang-related and I would like to reassure the public that there is no reason for any undue concern," he added.

Trains running through the station were disrupted and a number of services were cancelled while investigations were conducted by police. However services resumed at about 07:00 GMT.

Many commuters also faced problems parking as the main railway station car park remained closed for much of the day.

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Dotted lines, slowing economy and cigarette bans

China's economy is slowing or, as some media outlets have described it, stabilising. But the country faces many troubles ahead, financially, politically, territorially and domestically. With potential property bubbles, a rise in corruption, a risk of clashes in the South China Sea and growing pollution, the future looks extremely uncertain. With all that stress a proposed ban on indoor smoking might be a step too far.

Slowing economy

According to official data China's 2013's growth rate matched that for 2012. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 7.7% in the October-to-December period, down from 7.8% in the previous quarter. Nonetheless it was still higher than the government's target rate of 7.5%.

Monday's announcement of another lackluster economic performance struck investors hard. To many in the west, where growth of 2% would be considered an achievement, China's numbers may still inspire awe and envy. However China's ailing performance might be of some concern given it has routinely seen 10% growth a year since the 1980s. On the surface it may appear worrying but China's steady growth through the Great Recession of 2008 helped prevent the entire global economy from slipping into an even more destructive downturn.

These are the views of many financial analysts, though there are some who believe that all is not what it appears to be.

Economic concerns

China is well known for having an opaque political system. But its financial system too is far from open, and given that statistics are compiled and issued by state bodies there is scepticism amongst some that the whole truth is not being told.

Writing in Forbes only days before China released its annual financial report Gordon Chang spoke of issues that could devastate the Chinese banking system and the larger economy as well. In short, wrote Chang, "China's growth since the end of 2008 has been dependent on ultra-loose credit first channelled through state banks, like ICBC and Construction Bank, and then through the WMPs [Wealth Management Projects], which permitted the state banks to avoid credit risk."

"Any disruption in the flow of cash from investors to dodgy borrowers through WMPs would rock China with sky-high interest rates or a precipitous plunge in credit, probably both. The result? The best outcome would be decades of misery, what we saw in Japan after its bubble burst in the early 1990s."

Chang is not the only one to raise concerns. Al Jazeera reported that shadow banking - non-transparent, less regulated credit - could stoke asset bubbles and threaten stability. Indeed, one of the biggest worries for Chinese policy makers has been the rapid increase of debt, much of it channelled through a loosely regulated shadow banking system.

Rising debt

Furthermore there are increased concerns that burgeoning local government debt will only add to China's economic problems.

"Borrow and spend, or in China's case, borrow and invest, works great to prop up growth for a while but eventually debt rises, investment becomes less productive and the risks rise," says Steven Barnett, division chief at the International Monetary Fund, who covers China.

There is also the growing concern of a crash in property prices if the housing market bubble bursts. This is highly possible given the saturation of empty properties sitting idle across China, bought up by individuals and corporations as an investment. Should the price of property crash millions would find themselves in negative equity. The consequences could spiral out of control and make the sub-prime mortgage fiasco in the US, that triggered the 2008 downturn, look like a mere blip [BBC / Time].

Rise in nationalism

Faced with devastating economic problems, massive unemployment, bankruptcies and a property crash, president Xi Jinping is rallying support under the flag of nationalism and once again wielding the Communist sledgehammer [American Thinker].

China's radically undervalued Yuan currency has allowed the country to import manufacturing jobs and export low-priced products under a form of state-sponsored capitalism called "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics".

From 1993 to 2008, China's economy quadrupled, raising 500 million people out of abject poverty. The US economy only doubled, while Europe's rose by just half and Japan stagnated. Now there are concerns that could all become unravelled in a matter of years.

However, China's growth could receive a boost from one unexpected source as demand for Chinese exports from strengthening developed economies, led by the US, picks up in 2014, Jamil Anderlini writes in the Financial Times.

In the years since the financial crisis, China's economy has become less dependent on exports than it once was, and slowing investment and shrinking overcapacity should more than negate any positive effect from stronger trade, Anderlini suggests. But China's economic future is far from certain.

Dotted lines

Another issue that raises concern and uncertainty is the territorial dispute in the South and East China Sea.

In the last month concerns were raised further after China implemented new rules which required all foreign fishing vessels seek Beijing's permission to operate in most of the South China Sea. The US called the rules "provocative" [BBC]. Meanwhile some countries directly affected by the new rules responded in other ways. For the first time since Vietnam clashed with China some 40 years ago in a territorial battle, the country announced it would mark the occasion with a memorial to the dozens of Vietnamese soldiers who were killed in the bloody battle [BBC].

Meanwhile a government spokesperson in Hanoi called the new regulations "illegal and invalid" and stated, "Vietnam demands that China abolish the above said erroneous acts, and practically contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability in the region." [Yahoo News]

In Chinese state media there have been continued dismissals of those criticising China's territorial claims. In one article published by Xinhua it was claimed that the South China Sea rules were no threat to peace, this according to "experts."

Those "experts" were, needless to say, academics belonging to state run bodies.

One such "expert" quoted in the article was Wu Shicun, president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies. He insisted that China's claim, defined by the South China Sea "nine-dash line", was established long before the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea took effect.

"In accordance with the intertemporal law, the nine-dash line should be recognized by the international community," Wu said. "The waters that China claims had been under Chinese jurisdiction long before the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea was established [in 1982], and therefore should be taken into consideration," he added.

Drifting pollution

Closer to home Xi Jinping is facing another battle to curb the ongoing threat of industrial pollution. Not only is it directly affecting China's citizens' health, it may also be affecting their wealth. New statistics appear to show that tourism has dropped, partly due to the rise in air pollution.

The "Green Book of China's Tourism" issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said revenue at hotels with a three-star rating or above dropped by nearly 12% in the first half of 2013, compared with the same period in 2012. Foreigners' reluctance to come to China was attributed by researchers to poor travel services and damage to tourist cities' reputations because of air pollution, food safety scandals and traffic congestion, the South China Morning Post reported.

But those staying at home may not escape Beijing's smog it has been revealed. According to several articles published in the last few days China's pollution is drifting across the Pacific Ocean and arriving on American shores.

The US study, upon which the reports were based, suggests that up to 25% of the sulphates found in the air of cities on the western seaboard may have originated in China [Daily Mail / Business Week].

Smoking curbs

Back in China many face more localised pollution in the form of cigarette smoke. But lawmakers are about to curb smoking in enclosed spaces, though such attempts have failed in the past. Recent reports suggest that by the end of 2014 those wishing to light up will have to go outside, a practice now seen the world over [SCMP].

China ratified the World Health Organisation's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in 2005, but missed the deadline to honour it by 2011. The latest announcement, published in state media, indicates that China may be more serious in its commitment [Xinhua].

So far only a few cities have implemented the 2011 rules, but they are rarely enforced and often flouted [Guardian].

About one in three cigarettes smoked in the world is smoked in China, according to the World Health Organization. And more than half of Chinese men smoke, according to the Global Adult Tobacco Survey in 2010. China had the highest number of smokers in the world in 2012 with 281 million, about one-third of the world's smoking population. A report late last year by the state-run broadcaster CCTV [CNTV - Chinese] put the number of smokers in China around 350 million [NYT blog].

The statistic in themselves will make it difficult for authorities trying to impose such a ban. While many comply with no smoking bans in hospitals, stations, airports and buses, in other places notices are simply ignored. It is quite common in Beijing, for example, to see a 'no smoking' sign placed adjacent to an ashtray on a restaurant table.

Meanwhile even where restaurants do enforce the ban more strictly patrons often either blatantly ignore the restriction or smoke in the toilets.

Tax loss

With such a large percentage of the population smoking, China could face unrest should such a ban be imposed. Furthermore the country could face big financial issues. Some of China's provinces rely heavily on tobacco. Yunnan province, for example, produces around 40% of China's entire tobacco harvest, the sales of which account for around 45% of the provincial government's tax revenue. And while cigarettes are not taxed as highly as in the west, tobacco taxes account for a tenth of central government revenue.

There are also social issues. Tobacco companies often sponsor and fund schools, ironic given the health concerns, and any drop in revenue could have a knock on effect on many children's education.

But Dr. Judith Mackay, the senior adviser at the World Lung Foundation, who examines tobacco issues in China, says that there are far more important considerations. "This isn't a health problem. It's a huge economic problem. There's all these things ranging from medical and health care costs, the costs to the families and there's the cost of second-hand smoke," she told CNN.

It may be that the new rules will not be applied strictly, as was seen in 2011. Indeed with the risk of losing tax revenue, angering 250 million smoking men and potentially running some businesses into the ground [as was seen when the smoking ban was implemented in the UK as hundreds of pubs saw their custom drop], Xi Jinping may be more focused as waving the nationalist flag, asserting dominance in the South China Sea and stabilising the economy.


tvnewswatch, London, UK

China consolidates and asserts its power

Xi Jinping has been China's president for less than a year but he is already attempting to consolidate his power under the guise of a clampdown on corruption.

Ongoing purge

The ongoing purge has already seen top party chief Bo Xilai ousted and sentenced to life imprisonment for taking millions of pounds of bribes, embezzling public money and trying to cover up the murder of the British businessman Neil Heywood [Telegraph].

But while Bo Xilai drew strong interest and headlines in both domestic and the international press, others have slipped under the radar and glare of the media spotlight.

In late 2012 Li Chuncheng, a deputy party chief of Sichuan, was investigated for corruption [BBC]. Within a year he had joined the growing list year of others ousted from the party.

Amongst them were Wang Suyi, former senior official of north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Li Daqiu, former vice chairman of the Guangxi Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and former chairman of the Guangxi Federation of Trade Unions, and Jiang Jiemin, head of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [BBC / China Daily / Telegraph].

Liu Tienan, former deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, and Wang Yongchun, the deputy general manager of the China National Petroleum Corporation also found themselves investigated and ousted from their positions [BBC / WSJ / Caixin].

These individuals escaped lightly in that they were merely expelled from the party. Other were less fortunate such as Former railways minister Liu Zhijun who in July was given a suspended death penalty for taking bribery and abuse of power [Xinhua].

Tiger hunt

The ongoing purge is now focussing on Zhou Yongkang and his allies in what appears to be a concerted campaign to rid the party of any individuals that might oppose Xi Jinping [SCMP / NYT / NYT / CDT]. Rumours had circulated as early as March 2012 that Bo Xilai and communist party official and domestic security chief  Zhou Yongkang had been plotting for a political takeover within the upper ranks of the Communist Party [tvnewswatch: Suspicious death of Briton with links to Bo Xilai / tvnewswatch: Rumours of coup..].

Whispers surrounding President Xi Jinping's "tiger hunt", a metaphor for seeking out corrupt senior government officials, have been circulating ever since he assumed the top positions in party and state in 2012. But Zhou's ousting would be relatively unprecedented in recent Chinese history, indeed it would hark back to the days of Mao when even top officials could be purged, jailed or even meet an unsavoury end.

Until 2012, Zhou was a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, with oversight for the police, courts and intelligence services. Although Zhou is widely believed to be guilty of corruption and abuse of power, no current or retired member of the Politburo Standing Committee has ever been prosecuted.

Last month Li Dongsheng, a deputy national police chief with close ties to Zhou Yongkang, became the latest target in the ever widening anti-corruption probe [SCMP]. While claims that Zhou may have been involved with Bo Xilai in a planned coup might be highly exaggerated, it is clear the noose is tightening.

Tightening grip

The few details which filter out paint a picture of much infighting within the CCP, though there are no official statements on the matter. There is also concern raised since the ousting of Zhou will result in Xi having more control over both the security services and the military than any Chinese leader in decades.

This is particularly concerning given a rise of nationalism across the country, a condition which has been exacerbated by China's slowing economy.

In an address made in February last year at the Center for Security Policy's National Security Group Lunch on Capitol Hill, Gordon Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China, suggested that a slowing and distressed economy, as well as a crisis of political legitimacy would only further nationalism within China which in turn would increase hostility with its neighbours [YouTube].

Territorial claims

This something that has already manifested itself in China's establishing of a new "air defence identification zone" which covered much of the east and south China sea [BBC].

Tensions between China and its neighbours have been growing sometime concerning claims by China over disputed territory. However China's aggressive approach is seen by some as being particularly dangerous.

The newly declared zones has not been accepted by the international community and herein lies the danger. Soon after China implemented the new zone the US ignored it and flew unarmed B52s through the zone without declaring their presence. The US flights were followed soon after by brazen intrusions by South Korean and Japanese aircraft. Though China did not respond directly they subsequently put military reconnaissance flights into operation within the newly declared zone.

In a tit for tat move the South Korean then extended its air defence zone to partially overlap with the zone declared by China [Reuters]. But the most dangerous incident occurred only three days before when a United States guided missile cruiser, the USS Cowpens, was forced to take evasive action as a PLA [People's Liberation Army] Navy vessel neared each other on 5th December [BBC].

Described by some experts as the most serious Sino-US confrontation in the South China Sea since 2009 the US defence secretary Chuck Hagel warned the Chinese action was "irresponsible" and future incidents could "set off some eventual miscalculation" [BBC / NYT].

Risk of conflict

It could be argued that China is merely barking and asserting its feelings. However any missteps could well lead to a dangerous and widespread conflict. With other tensions existing between India and China over the Arunachal Pradesh region the risks are all too clear. China once again tested its nuclear neighbour when it sent troops into the disputed region on the 11th August before making a tactical withdrawal four days later [BBC].

China has continually tested the US's resolve over the last decade. It has harassed unarmed US Navy reconnaissance vessels most notably the blocking of the Impeccable in the South China Sea in 2009 [Wikipedia / BBC]. In 2001 China forced down a Navy EP-3 in the infamous Hainan Island incident and in 2006 China surfaced a Song-class attack submarine in the middle of the Kitty Hawk strike group near Okinawa [Washington Times].

So far the United States have resolved such issues diplomatically, but such impotent reactions could be read as signs of weakness by Chinese military strategists. While conflict is best averted, China's arrogance and assertiveness could well lead to a very dangerous year in 2014. Indeed, one day into the new year China implemented new rules on fishing access to disputed areas of the South China Sea which require foreign fishing vessels to ask for permission to enter its waters.

War of words

The new rules have been described as "provocative and potentially dangerous." by the United States which could itself become embroiled in any future conflict between China and its neighbours [BBC / Reuters].

"The passing of these restrictions on other countries' fishing activities in disputed portions of the South China Sea is a provocative and potentially dangerous act," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told a news briefing. "China has not offered any explanation or basis under international law for these extensive maritime claims."

"Our long-standing position has been that all concerned parties should avoid any unilateral action that raises tensions and undermines the prospects for a diplomatic or other peaceful resolution of differences," Psaki added.

China however maintains the new rules were legitimate. In a report in the state run China Daily. "The goal is to strengthen the security of fisheries resources and to reasonably utilize and exploit them," ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a regular news conference and added that the implementation of the rules were "a normal routine practice" for an ocean state.

The Global Times, another mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party, and Xinhua both quoted Hua saying that "under international laws, universal practice and domestic laws" China had the "right and obligation to manage the biological and non-biological resources on relevant islands, reefs and in relevant waters"

Past tensions

The waters concerned have certainly seen tensions in the past. In March 2013, Hanoi accused China of shooting at a Vietnamese fishing boat in the area and setting fire to its cabin. In May, a Taiwanese fisherman was shot dead by Philippines coastguards in waters claimed by both countries, an issue which Beijing capitalised on given its territorial claims concerning Taiwan.

Speaking to BBC's Newshour today [Friday 10th January] Hu Xijin, editor of the Global Times reiterated China's stance concerning its operations in the East and South China Sea.

Occasionally described as China's Fox News, the Global Times, with a distribution of some 1.5 million, outputs often aggressive and strident nationalist articles and sharp critiques of the west and US foreign policy in particular.

"They can't interfere in our politics and we don't interfere in their politics," Hu insists, when quizzed on China's aggressive stance in the South and East China Seas concerning its neighbours. "Do you see the cannon in the South China Sea? You don't. Do you hear the cannon in the South China Sea? You don't." Hu concedes there is always an ongoing struggle but maintains the situation is not volatile. "Now in the South China Sea there is peace, not war."

Uneasy peace

There may not be a war, but the tensions existing in the South and East China Seas could hardly be described as peaceful. Xi may be attempting to maintain stable relations with the United States and Britain, trying to build business and economic ties. But at the same time Xi is expanding China's military capabilities and asserting its regional interests.

With a quickening arms race in Asia, growing nationalist rhetoric, and continued tensions with Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines, there is a risk of misunderstandings and possible mishaps.

Xi Jinping's domestic policy is intrinsically tied into its foreign policy. His anti-corruption policy may, on the face of it, seem laudable. However it is likely a whitewash.

While many of the ousted officials may indeed be guilty of massive corruption and other crimes, their dismissal from the party is likely to serve Xi's interests by shedding officials which are less willing to back his own agenda.

Smokescreens

How many of Xi's closest allies are guilty of corruption is difficult to assess. But given that corruption runs so deep within the Chinese power structure it is hard to believe his own supporters are not taking bribes or involved in illegal activities.

Indeed according to public documents compiled by Bloomberg, Xi's own extended family have over many years expanded their business interests to include minerals, real estate and mobile-phone equipment.

The documents do not implicate Xi himself, his wife or daughter, but the massive holdings of his extended family are not comfortable reading for a man claiming to be on an anti-corruption drive.

Xi was said to be "repulsed by the all-encompassing commercialization of Chinese society, with its attendant nouveau riche, official corruption, loss of values, dignity, and self-respect," according to a leaked US cable disclosed by Wikileaks.

However Beijing's attempt to cover up foreign investigations which reveal the wealth of its top leaders, through media blackouts and censorship, only increases suspicions that corruption goes right to the top.

Thus the ongoing campaign to rein in corrupt officials is clearly a smokescreen to cover-up the central committee's wrong-doing and to rally support for the CCP as a whole. Indeed this and the nationalist campaigns are all designed to avert eyes from the very real economic problems China faces in the coming years.


tvnewswatch, London, UK

2013 - anticipation, disappointment & confrontation

The number 13 is considered unlucky by many and 2013 could also be considered to be a rather disastrous year too. In many ways 2013 was marred by terrorism, war, confrontation and natural disasters.

African turmoil

January saw the French military begin a five-month intervention into the Northern Mali conflict, targeting the militant Islamist Ansar Dine group. Meanwhile in the north of the continent thirty-nine international workers and one security guard died in a hostage crisis at a natural gas facility near In Aménas, Algeria [Wikipedia].

The continuing conflict in the Central African Republic saw President François Bozizé flee to the Democratic Republic of the Congo after rebel forces captured the. nation's capital, Bangui. By November 2013 reprisal attacks on civilians from Séléka's mainly Muslim fighters and Christian militias called "anti-balaka" increased and the UN warned the country was at risk of spiralling into genocide and said it was "descending into complete chaos", while France described the country as "...on the verge of genocide."

North Korean threat 

North Korea once again rattled its sabre conducting third underground nuclear test, prompting widespread condemnation and tightened economic sanctions from the international community. Even China, a staunch ally of the secretive rogue state, criticised the test though they held back from imposing punitive sanctions [Wikipedia].

Only two days later in Russia, some might have thought the end was indeed nigh and that the bomb had indeed been dropped when a meteor exploded the city of Chelyabinsk. It was most powerful meteor to strike Earth's atmosphere in over a century when a meteor hit Tunguska in 1908. The Chelyabinsk  meteor strike was captured by dozens of car mounted dash-cams as well as CCTV cameras. While the strike was significant in that some 1,491 people were injured and over 4,300 buildings were damaged it was a wake up call for the scientific community concerning the Earth's vulnerability to meteor strikes [Wikipedia / tvnewswatch: Russian meteor strike provides a wake up call].

Terror attacks

Terrorism also reared its ugly head once again striking blows in the US and Europe. In April two Chechen Islamist brothers exploded two bombs at the Boston Marathon in Boston, Massachusetts, in the United States, killing 3 and injuring 264 others. Both suspects were tracked down with a few hours one being killed in an exchange of fire whilst the other was placed on trial and convicted [Wikipedia / tvnewswatch: Terror attack in US leaves 3 dead, 100 injured / tvnewswatch: Boston terror suspects identified / tvnewswatch: Boston terror suspect shot dead / tvnewswatch: Hunt over as second Boston bomber arrested].

One month later terrorism returned to the streets of London when two men ran over a British army soldier with a car, then used knives and a cleaver to stab and hack him to death. They told passers-by that they had killed a soldier to avenge the killing of Muslims by the British armed forces and awaited for police to arrive. Both were shot by armed police but survived to stand trial where they were found guilty and sentenced to life imprisonment [Wikipedia / tvnewswatch: Renewed terror threat needs a pro-active response].

Surveillance revelations

June saw another attack on the west after US defence contractor Edward Snowden disclosed operations engaged by a US government mass surveillance program to news publications and flees the country. The fallout was highly significant in that it revealed how the United States conducts its operations potentially handing its enemies a gift in being able to thwart or defend themselves from surveillance in the future. Some of the revelations published suggested complicity from Silicon Valley's top tech companies including Apple, Microsoft, Google, Skye and Facebook, though all denied giving the US government a carte blanche. Nonetheless trust was certainly lost amongst many consumers who remain skeptical as to whether private information stored by the big hi-tech corporations is willingly being handed over to the NSA. As for Snowden he was granted temporary asylum in Russia where he still remains, and the leaks are still flowing [tvnewswatch: PRISM raises more questions than answers / tvnewswatch: Snowden gets asylum amid more leaks & terror threats].

Tech disappointments

2013 proved to be a somewhat disappointing year for technology geeks in other ways too. Despite much talk concerning Google Glass, Google's controversial wearable tech device, it has yet to be released to the general public on either side of the Atlantic. Wearable tech in the form of the smartwatch was also a big disappointment with poor battery life, a lack of features and designs that failed to impress.

The search giant did reveal a few surprises however. It brought out un updated Nexus 7 tablet with faster processing, resolution and a rear facing camera. A much anticipated Nexus 5 smartphone also rolled off the production line in November and while arguably better, or at least comparable with the new iPhone 5 [tvnewswatch: Apple having to Think Different again], it did not wow consumers as might be expected. This was partly due to the fact that the new Android 4.4 KitKat operating system did not bring many new surprises or features. In fact despite all the promotions and buzz around KitKat 4.4 the differences between KitKat and Jelly Bean 4.3 were marginal and for some a disappointment [tvnewswatch: Google unveils Nexus 5 with Android Kit Kat].

Less of a disappointment was Google's Chromecast, a small HDMI dongle that could potentially transform the way people use the web and their television. The device enables casting of Internet based services such as YouTube and Netfix to the television screen using a phone or tablet as a remote control whilst the Chromecast device simply streams directly from the WiFi itself. Most tech reviews praised the device the only pitfall being the take up by streaming sites in terms of adding the Chromecast facility to their apps. The biggest disappointment was from consumers around the world who at the end of the year are still waiting for a launch date outside the US [tvnewswatch: Google launches new Nexus 7 & TV streaming device].

Tensions in East China Sea

Perhaps the biggest concern of 2013 was not so much whether one would be able to get one's hands on a Chromecast device and stream Internet content on a TV, but whether we'd all be here to enjoy it when it did arrive. With tensions building in the East and South China Seas the potential of a major conflict was becoming more real by the month.

Tensions between China and its neighbours have been growing sometime concerning claims by China over disputed territory. However China upped the anti when it established a new "air defence identification zone" which covered much of the east and south China sea [BBC]. The US ignored it and flew unarmed B52s through the zone without declaring their presence. The US flights were followed soon after by brazen intrusions by South Korean and Japanese aircraft. Though China did not respond directly they subsequently put military reconnaissance flights into operation within the newly declared zone.

In a tit for tat move the South Korean then extended its air defence zone to partially overlap with the zone declared by China [Reuters]. But the most dangerous incident occurred only three days before when a United States guided missile cruiser, the USS Cowpens, was forced to take evasive action as a PLA [People's Liberation Army] Navy vessel neared each other on 5th December [BBC].

Described by some experts as the most serious Sino-US confrontation in the South China Sea since 2009 the US defence secretary Chuck Hagel warned the Chinese action was "irresponsible" and future incidents could "set off some eventual miscalculation" [BBC / NYT].

Certainly some observers, such as Gordon Chang, who penned The Coming Collapse of China, said the threat from China was far more serious than many were suggesting. In an address made in February at the Center for Security Policy's National Security Group Lunch on Capitol Hill, Chang suggested that a slowing and distressed economy, as well as a crisis of political legitimacy would only further nationalism within China which in turn would increase hostility with its neighbours [YouTube].

It could be argued that China is merely barking and asserting its feelings. However any missteps could well lead to a dangerous and widespread conflict. With other tensions existing between India and China over the Arunachal Pradesh region the risks are all too clear. China once again tested its nuclear neighbour when it sent troops into the disputed region on the 11th August before making a tactical withdrawal four days later [BBC].

China has continually tested the US's resolve over the last decade. It has harassed unarmed US Navy reconnaissance vessels most notably the blocking of the Impeccable in the South China Sea in 2009 [Wikipedia / BBC]. In 2001 China forced down a Navy EP-3 in the infamous Hainan incident and in 2006 China surfaced a Song-class attack submarine in the middle of the Kitty Hawk strike group near Okinawa [Washington Times].

So far the United States have resolved such issues diplomatically, but such impotent reactions could be read as signs of weakness by Chinese military strategists. While conflict is best averted, China's arrogance and assertiveness could well lead to a very dangerous year in 2014.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Legal war spreads to Twitter & social media

The UK's Attorney General has declared he will try to rein in those who dare to break the rules surrounding what can be said during an active trial on social media. However, any attempt to do so could have a counter-productive effect.

In reports this week it is suggested that the attorney general Dominic Grieve QC is to publish guidance on Twitter to help prevent social media users from committing contempt of court when commenting on legal cases [BBC / Telegraph].

Grieve has said he "will not shy away" from taking legal action against those who flout the rules. But jurisdiction in such rulings effectively only cover the UK and those tweeting from beyond Britain's shores are beyond the reach of its legal system.

Red rag to a bull

Indeed his turning to Twitter to disseminate advisories that have previously only been issued to the media is likely to act like a red rag to a bull. As John Walsh writes in The Independent there are a great many bulls that might be stirred into action.

"Instantly I see a red rag being waved under the noses of a million bulls, and the words "Court case! Court case with secrets!!" yelled across the Twittersphere. It'll be like (as George Orwell once defined advertising) "the rattle of the stick in the swill bucket" to stir a million busy imaginations into action online," Walsh comments.

And while those tweeting from abroad may have less to fear from the wrath of Britain's legal system, even those in the UK might push the boundaries as best they can. "The owners of the imaginations may realise they're straying into areas of possible contempt, but they will, I guarantee, test that word "possible" to its outer limits," Walsh adds.

Online reaction

The reaction on many newspaper forums were scathing of Grieve's proposal calling it another assault on free speech with some vowing to ignore any advisories [Daily Mail].

The Internet has been described as a "megaphone for gossip" by Lord Justice Leveson, who warned against "trial by Twitter as he called for new laws to curb "mob rule" last year.

But curbing such platforms are difficult especially given that they are often hosted in other countries. While countries like China curtain such activity by complete blocks of such foreign social media sites, Britain is unlikely to follow such a drastic route quite yet.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Safety concerns raised after police helicopter crash

There have been concerns raised over the safety of the helicopter which was involved in the tragedy which claimed at least 8 lives on Friday [29th November].

According to reports the Eurocopter EC135 Type 2 has been the subject of two recent European Aviation Safety Authority (EASA) emergency airworthiness directives.

While it is still too early to determine whether the crash was a result of a mechanical failure, air crash investigators will likely be looking at whether there were problems with the aircraft itself.

Safety fears

It has emerged that the helicopter, which was operated for Police Scotland by Bond Air Services Ltd, was one of dozens of aircraft grounded in 2012 over safety fears. Should a mechanical failure be found to be behind Friday's tragedy it could have far reaching ramifications.

With a cruising speed of up to 254 km/h [158 mph], the twin-engined EC135 has become popular with police and ambulance services. Should they be grounded due to safety concerns it could have a significant impact on how the Air Ambulance Service respond to emergencies and how the police track suspects and monitor situations on the ground.

Victims

Eight people died when the twin-engined EC135 fell from the sky and crashed through the roof of the crowded Clutha pub in Glasgow city centre, Scotland. Some 40 others were injured some with serious injuries ranging from broken limbs, head injuries and lacerations.

More than 48 hours after the crash there remained some concern that some individuals might still be buried in the debris.

Recovery

Safety investigators and firefighters were working to lift the aircraft from the pub on Sunday having already removed the rotor blades and taken them away for forensic examination. Meanwhile the EASA, which has the authority to ground helicopters that are found to have technical design flaws, said the agency is "working closely" with Eurocopter and investigators but has not ruled out grounding the EC135 Type 2. A spokesman told reporters that it is "prepared to take any action based on facts to ensure that the type of helicopter in question continues to be operated safely".

Previous concerns

On 23rd September, the EASA warned of "stiffness" in the "main rotor actuators" of the variant, which could lead to "reduced control of the helicopter". And in May last year, the agency reported a "crack detected" on parts of the "main rotor hub shaft", which could "lead to loss of the helicopter". This problem was first reported on an EC135 aircraft operated by Bond Air Services for the Scottish Air Ambulance Service.

The EASA alert led to the temporary grounding of all the 22 EC135 aircraft operated by Bond Air Services in the UK, including the Police Scotland aircraft that crashed on Friday, then operated by Strathclyde Police.

In early November the transport select committee launched an investigation into the safety of helicopter flights in Scotland. Following the crash, a spokesman for the British Airline Pilots' Association said that the number of number of recent helicopter incidents in Scotland was a "matter for concern" and called for the committee to "look into the circumstances around" the accident.

Other incidents

On 23rd August this year four people were killed when an AS332L2 Super Puma crashed into the sea about 2 km off the Shetland Islands.

Operated by Bond Offshore Helicopters, the aircraft was similar to one which crashed a few miles off Peterhead in Scotland in April 2009 which killed all 16 people on board. Investigators concluded that the main cause of that accident was the catastrophic failure of the main rotor gearbox.

The aircraft was manufactured by EADS, which owns Eurocopter, and the company is concerned that fingers are already being unfairly pointed at it for the Glasgow crash. However the Air Accidents Investigation Branch found that there was no technical fault to blame for the Super Puma incident.

Finger pointing

But with some experts pointing to a possible loss of power in Friday's incident, finger pointing may be the least of concerns. Phil Giles, a former air accident investigator, said, "One of the first things you notice from the images from Glasgow is one of the rotor blades sticking up in the air, which suggests there was very little power on the helicopter when it crashed. So it looks like the engines had probably stopped."

"From everything I've seen, it suggests the pilot had more of a problem on his hands than just a power failure, though, as the aircraft doesn't seem to have entered autorotation, which is the helicopter equivalent of a glide, and it dropped liked a stone."

Financial implications

Police forces and Air Ambulance Services have already been affected by cost cutting exercises. In England and Wales police helicopters in England and Wales, though not Scotland, were reorganised in a £15m cost-cutting measure into a single National Police Air Service. Its fleet now comprises 23 helicopters, including 14 of the EC135 Type 2 aircraft involved in the latest crash.

A grounding of half its fleet could be very costly indeed, especially if it were indefinite. Air Ambulance Services would be even harder hit since they rely primarily on charitable donations and sponsorship rather than funding from central government. Friday's incident may not be good for Bond Offshore Helicopters or Eurocopter and its subsidiaries should their record on safety be further called into question.

[Sky News / BBC / Guardian / Independent / FT / Daily Mail / 

Pictured: a Eurocopter EC135 Type 2 operated by Essex Police and of the same type that crashed in Glasgow.

tvnewswatch, London, UK