Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Chinese spies rattle the British

Anger has boiled over and screams have reached fever pitch in the British media and amongst a number of politicians following revelations that an alleged Chinese spy had formed an "unusual degree of trust" with the Duke of York, Prince Andrew.

Accusations

The man made headlines in early December after being banned from entering the UK and it was subsequently revealed had a close relationship with the disgraced prince.

Initially identified only as H6, the Chinese businessman is also accused of having developed relationships with politicians to be "leveraged" by China.

The Chinese embassy in London has accused some UK parliamentarians of having a "twisted mentality towards China" and that such "anti-China clamours" were an attempt to "smear China, target against the Chinese community in the UK and undermine normal personnel exchanges between China and the UK" [sic]. [Daily Mail / Guardian]

Iain Duncan Smith, who has often criticised China for its human rights abuses, intellectual property theft and espionage, has said he could not understand why people around Prince Andrew were not being checked by the security services.

Growing concerns
 
The naming of the 'spy' had been blocked, despite his name being in the public domain and easily searched in news articles going back many years. Indeed, the man in question was the subject of some controversy as recently as 2020 when the Daily Mail reported that he had gained access to influential establishment figures, including George Osborne and Prince Andrew.

The article claimed the former Chinese government official had founded the Hampton Group, one of a number of Chinese businesses that facilitated "subtly infiltrating areas of influence," according to the then chair of the defence committee in Britain, Tobias Ellwood. "We have to be very worried about how the regime is manipulating Britain's important areas of interest using these kind of tactics.[sic]"

Yang's background

Yang Tengbo [杨腾波] was born in China in 1974. Having graduated with a bachelor's degree in history from the School of History and Archives at Yunnan University in 1995 he went on to join the civil service [Wikipedia]. While Chinese civil servants are not necessarily members of the Chinese Communist Party [CCP], some 95% of civil servants in leading positions from division (county) level and above are CCP members, thus it is likely Yang had by this time secured membership.

He first came to the UK in 2002 and studied in London for a year, before taking a masters degree in public administration and public policy at the University of York.

In 2005 he founded consultancy firm Hampton Group International - one of five companies he has been publicly listed as a director of in the UK. By this time Yang had become an honorary member of the 48 Group Club, a pro-China lobbying group, and a member of the Chinese Communist Party [BBC / Wikipedia].

In the 2020 book "Hidden Hands" published by Australian researchers, the 48 Group Club was accused of acting as a conduit for the Chinese government to "cultivate" senior British businessmen and politicians, and explored China's covert influence around the world. Meanwhile Yang has reportedly had his membership revoked in light of the allegations against him [Botanwang - Chinese]. 

Yang's rise to importance continued following the founding of his consultancy firm. In April 2009, Yang Tengbo was cordially received by President Hu Jintao in London and the following year he was awarded the title of "Top Ten Leaders of the 11th China Era Who Influence China" in Beijing. He later initiated the establishment of the China-UK Entrepreneurs Association which facilitated the landing of "Pitch@Palace", a venture capital platform initiated by Prince Andrew, Duke of York, to China to support young entrepreneurs. It was perhaps this enterprise that established his close links with Prince Andrew and which later raised eyebrows with the British security service [zgcforum - Chinese / Guardian].

Gaining advantage

China's foreign policy should come as no surprise to anyone who understands the country. Ever since China 'opened up' in the 1980s, it has sought to gain advantage wherever it can.

For example China might conveniently ignore some WTO and other international trade rules while taking advantage of others. Many people might for example be unaware that China is able to take advantage of cheap postal rates when shipping items all over the world. These lower postal rates are set by the Universal Postal Union (UPU) treaty for so-called 'developing countries'.

In practice a consumer in the US or Europe can order an item from China including shipping for less than what a local seller or distributor might be able to offer the same product. While China is still developing in many ways, the fact that it is the second largest economy seems to be somewhat incongruous with its being judged to have access to more favourable shipping rates. 

China has feathered its nest in other ways too. By 'investing' in Africa and other places, building roads and other infrastructure, China has secured cheap copper, oil and other important natural resources.

China has long 'welcomed' businesses to invest and create manufacturing bases in China. However, this has come with a hidden cost as many firms find their intellectual property copied or blatantly stolen.

The world has been coaxed by China's cheap manufacturing base to knock out everything from clothes to hi-tech items. But the factories where these items are produced often have a secret output of items which end up on the 'black-market'.

Stolen IP

Those shanzhai or counterfeit items one might buy at 10% of the cost of the real item at a Beijing store, may in fact be the real item. In other cases, the items are an exact copy since the blueprint is simply passed around between enterprises. Most shanzhai products tend to be aimed at the domestic or tourist market and as such may little dent the profits of some firms. Most Chinese people will be unable to afford a real North Face jacket, Chanel bag or Burberry scarf but will be happy to wear the fake. The tourists are happy too, as they go home with a fake 'Rimowa' suitcase, that normally costs in the region of $1,000, having paid less than $50.

Authorities turn a blind eye to such things for several reasons. The first is 'Bread and Circuses'. Keep the people happy. If people are happy in their lives with their designer clothes, watches, suitcases and phones, they are less likely to create problems. Keep the tourists happy. While the draw to China is more than the lure of cheap designer products at Beijing's infamous Silk Market, there won't be many tourists leaving Beijing without at least a couple of 'knock-off' items.

China, has of course used IP theft to bolster its international position too. It is clear that while many people in the West might buy a branded product, there is a shift towards Chinese brands or cheaper Chinese made products that are essentially copies of well known brands.

Data theft and retention

It will be of no surprise that people's data is worth much to companies. Be it your browsing history on your favourite shopping website to purchasing habits at your local supermarket, collected via a loyalty card, such data is a goldmine.

So it is of growing concern that hacking and cyberattacks are becoming more frequent. And many such attacks are emanating from China. In recent weeks AT&T and other telecoms giants in the US have been targeted prompting the FBI to advise consumers not to send text messages [NPR].

Traditional espionage

Information is everything and can give advantage in business deals and securing contracts. Thus, traditional spying also maintains a place in a world of hi-tech espionage.

It is in this world that the likes of Yang Tengbo play a role. His name was revealed following a High Court ruling on the 16th December. His ban from entering the UK is due to his being deemed a national security risk. He is accused of being engaged in "covert and deceptive activity" on behalf of the Chinese state [Politico].

In part this may be true, in as much as any information, private or otherwise, he gleaned from his contacts would have likely been shared with the Chinese state.

Allegiance to the state

Any member of the CCP [the Chinese Communist Party or Zhongguo Gongchandang 中国共产党] is expected to pay allegiance to the state. Moreover, nearly every professional in China is likely to be a member of the CCP.

While membership is usually by invitation only, without being a member of the CCP an individual is less likely to excel in business or gain a promotion within a company.

Thus the assertion that Yang had 'close links to the Chinese government' is in fact true of probably every top Chinese business person, ambassador or official.

Banned

Yang is reported to have been stopped and questioned by police in November 2021 at the UK border under powers to investigate suspicions of "hostile activity" by a foreign state. This followed shortly after a meeting in London with the Chinese Ambassador to the UK Zheng Zeguang, in his role as Executive Chairman of the Chinese Chamber of Commerce in the UK [UKCBA - Chinese]. 

During that stop he surrendered a number of electronic devices including a mobile phone. From what was found on the devices it prompted a decision by the then Home Secretary Suella Braverman to use exceptional powers to ban him from the UK.

Information obtained from the devices, including a letter addressed to Yang from Prince Andrew's adviser Dominic Hampshire, appeared to suggest that Yang had placed himself in a position "to generate relationships between senior Chinese officials and prominent UK figures which could be leveraged for political interference purposes by the Chinese State" [BBC].

This is all likely to be true. Though there is an element of naivety on the part of the press and amongst politicians that Yang is an exception. However there are some lone voices calling out the Chinese. Iain Duncan Smith, a former Conservative party leader and strong critic of the Chinese government, has said the allegations surrounding Yang were "the tip of the iceberg" of Chinese influence in the UK [Guardian]. 

Chris Yang, has described the claims as "ill-founded" while China has repeated it oft repeated line of not meddling in China's internal affairs.

"The UK side must have a right perception of China, see the historical trend clearly, and handle its relations with China on the basis of mutual respect, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit," a spokesperson from the Chinese Embassy in London said in a statement.

Difficult playing fields 

At the heart of it all, China is not only seeking strength in terms of its economic position on the world stage, it is also establishing a position of self-sufficiency should it decide, in the future, to close its doors and end its open door policy. Should that happen, despite all the criticisms of China, the world beyond its borders would find itself in a world of hurt. The global economy would find itself without the necessary rare earths needed for technology, much of the world's manufactured goods and even food, given China supplies a quarter of the world's grain and feeds one-fifth of the world's population. Moreover, China ranks first globally in producing cereals - such as corn, wheat, and rice - fruit, vegetables, meat, poultry, eggs, and fishery products [CFR]. 

It's all very well to criticise China. Many criticisms are of course well founded. But the West has made decisions over the last few decades that has resulted in the erosion of domestic manufacturing and agriculture in favour of a quick economically viable solution by farming industry out to China. Some resources, such as rare earths, do exist outside of China. But the mining operations have, in many cases, been mothballed, partly due to environmental and other considerations. Thus, should China shut its doors, it would take decades for the world to recover its industry, agriculture and restart mining of natural resources.

The West must plan for such eventualities. China plans for years, decades and even centuries ahead. Most western democracies focus only on the short term, planning only from one election cycle to another. Such short-termism will be their undoing if they don't wake up and smell the coffee. At least one doesn't have to rely on China for the morning brew with the likes of Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia and Columbia providing the bulk of the world's coffee beans [Wikipedia]. However, an increasing amount is now being shipped to China as their appetite for coffee grows. Exports of Brazilian coffee to China surged 186.1% in 2024 compared to 2022-2023. So even that's not a safe bet [Xinhua].

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Friday, December 13, 2024

HMS Britain sinking as economy slides

When the new Labour government sought office it promised 'Change' and claimed that it had costed its manifesto pledges whilst dismissing in a number of pre-election debates that it would not raise taxes.

Black holes and expectations

Yet within weeks of winning the 2024 general election the new administration took aim at pensioners by cutting winter fuel payments and warned of a 'painful' budget due to a 'black hole' in the economy which it claimed it had not foreseen and that it had inherited from the previous Tory government.

Since the election Labour repeatedly claimed to have inherited a "£22 billion black hole" from the previous government. But there are suggestions the hole could be even larger with the Guardian pointing to a £100 billion hole and Sky News, prior to the budget, that the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves was looking to find £40 billion to plug public finances.

Whether the figure is as low as £20 billion or as much as £100 billion, it should come as no surprise to anyone that the British economy is failing.

GDP falls again

On Friday 13th December new figures showed the UK economy had declined further in October from the previous month, sinking the pound, and providing a tailwind for a FTSE 100 stacked with international earners

According to the Office for National Statistics, UK gross domestic product fell 0.1% in October from a month prior. In September, GDP had fallen at the same rate. Moreover, the UK economy barely grew between July and September, with uncertainty about the Budget being blamed for the weak growth [BBC / Sky News].

Labour had made boosting economic growth its top priority when it came into power but Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she was "not satisfied" with these latest figures which cover the first three months of the new government.

Following criticism of her fiscal policy Reeves claimed that she had seen little in the way of solutions being put forward.

Elephant in the Room

However there is an elephant in the room that most politicians continue to ignore; that of Brexit.

Whether the majority of the British people voted for it or not, the fact is leaving the EU has decimated the economy. And the cost to each individual, on average, is significant.

A government report published in January this year said that the average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit. Further to this the report said the UK economy was almost £140 billion smaller because of Brexit. According to the new research, the economic damage is only going to get worse – with more than £300 billion set to be wiped off the value of the UK's economy by 2035 if no action is taken, and more than £60 billion wiped off the value of London's economy alone [London gov / Camecon PDF].   

While the report was commissioned by the divisive politician Sadiq Khan and city hall, the otherwise independent report paints a bleak picture.

It also reinforces what is already known.

GDP loss

Estimates of the UK's GDP loss range from 1.2–4.5%. The UK's real Gross Value Added (GVA) in 2023 is around £140 billion less than it would have been if the UK remained in the EU.

Job losses

The UK has 1.8 million fewer jobs than it would have if Brexit had not happened. Moreover the UK is projected to have nearly 3 million fewer jobs post-Brexit by 2035.

Trade decline

UK goods exports to the EU have fallen by 27% since 2021, and imported goods are 32% lower. However, services have performed better than expected, with service exports now outpacing goods exports.

Regional disparities

The economic decline has been most pronounced in England and Scotland, while Northern Ireland has mostly benefited.

Foreign investment

Inward foreign direct investment dropped by 12.3 billion in 2020, the first drop since 2008.

Productivity

The OBR estimates that the UK's productivity could fall by 4% over the long term.

Living standards

Lower productivity usually means slower wage growth and lower living standards.

The list is almost endless.

It's the economy, stupid!

But while hardline Brexiteers may bleat about sovereignty - which was never really lost by being a member of the EU - to quote the US Democratic party strategist James Carville, "It's the economy, stupid!"

Simply put, if the economy is doing well, everything falls into place. If the economy fails it can lead to recession and even revolution.

Britain is unlikely to revolt. But the risk of a deep recession is very real [City AM] .

Of course money needs to be found to deal with the £22 billion deficit, and fund housing, infrastructural projects, the health service, etc.

But taxing a population who are already feeling the pain of Brexit repercussions, as well as the fallout from the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, will not improve matters.

Britain needs to attract investment, which in turn creates jobs. However, foreign investors are dissuaded from investing in the UK, primarily because of Brexit, due to increased red tape which makes exporting products to the EU more difficult logistically, and more expensive.

Tourism

There has been a fall in tourism to the UK since Brexit, especially school exchange trips. While new rules for French school trips were introduced in December 2023 there are concerns these may be affected by more Brexit red tape to come [Guardian].

And while there has been a slight lift in school parties heading to Britain since the former PM Rishi Sunak made a deal with the French last year, things don't always work out as intended. Earlier this month a minor paperwork error left 100 French schoolchildren stranded and forced to head back to their hometown after UK border officials refused entry.

The group of Year 6 students aged 10 and 11, had been eagerly anticipating their five-day trip to the Scottish Highlands. British border officials in Amsterdam refused them entry, citing incorrect information on the France-UK School Trip Travel Information Form, a mandatory document since Brexit for French students travelling to the UK. The error was a trivial one in that the school had mistakenly entered both identity card and passport numbers into the same section of the form, rather than separating them into their designated fields.

The 'jobs-worth' border guards could not be dissuaded by Dutch port officials who attempted to mediate and the students simply had to return to Saint-Winoc college in Bergues in northern France [La Voix du Nord].

The incident was not an isolated one. And while the news made headlines mostly in the French press, it is not good for Anglo-French relations.

Economically it is a disaster. French educational trips alone contributed around £100 million per year to the UK economy before Brexit [Schengen News]. But after Britain left the EU in January 2020 the numbers of trips fell by 60%. Sunak's deal with Macron last year boosted numbers a little but figures show only a 30% lift [Guardian / East Anglia Bylines]. 

Exports

Heading the other way are British exports. Though since Brexit these too have fallen off a cliff. British food sales to the EU have fallen by more than 16% on average across the three years since Brexit, with businesses blaming new border checks.

The report by the Centre of Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) equates the financial figure to being a £2.82 billion a year drop in produce travelling from Britain to the EU [Sky News].

And it gets worse as the EU's General Product Safety Regulation (GPSR) will apply as of 13th December making it a requirement for businesses in third countries to carry out and record safety checks for items they wish to import into the EU bloc. Of course, this comes with a cost as well as yet more paperwork. The result, yet more small businesses giving up exporting from UK PLC [iNews].

There are of course other issues that Brexit has affected; immigration being perhaps one of the most contentious subjects. But economically Brexit has severely damaged the British economy and it's only likely to get worse according to economists [BBC].

BoE criticism

Soon after Rachel Reeves' budget the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bayley made a speech in which he said that Brexit had "weighed" on the economy.

"The changing trading relationship with the EU has weighed on the level of potential supply. The impact on trade seems to be more in goods than services, that is not particularly surprising to my mind. But it underlines why we must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations while respecting the decision of the British people," Bayley said [BBC / Guardian / BoE].  

Bailey was attempting to be diplomatic in stating that the UK should "rebuild relations while respecting the decision of the British people." However, polls are increasingly showing that the British people's position on Brexit has clearly shifted [Guardian]. 

Labour pledges

The new Labour government has dismissed out of hand any notion that Britain should rejoin the EU, the single market or the customs union.

Politically it would be damaging, since the pledge not to rejoin was clearly set out in their manifesto. But at some point the government needs to wake up and smell the coffee before it is too late to turn the boat around.

Rachel Reeves speaks of being "disappointed" concerning figures showing Britain's economic slowdown and merely talks of "hope" that things might improve [Daily Mail]. 

Hopes & Dreams

But futures aren't built on hopes and dreams. Farmers might have hoped for a better harvest this year. Yet inclement weather this year has resulted in the second worst harvest on record. The wheat harvest in England is estimated to be down by 21%, with Britain's wine producers also hit hard. Some harvests are down by between 75% and a third, depending on the region [Guardian].

While this has nothing to do with Brexit, leaving the EU will make replenishing the shortfalls with imported wheat more costly for consumers in the coming months since imports will prove more expensive due to Brexit related red tape.

The economic slump and rising costs is only likely to increase a brain drain. Recent polls indicate that some 23% of UK adults are considering moving abroad in the next five years, with 12% contemplating emigration in the next 12 months [ifammagazine]. 

Such figures are of course speculative. A desire to leave won't necessarily manifest itself in reality since there are practical and financial factors that may thwart such a move.

Nonetheless it is concerning that ever growing numbers of the better educated and qualified are expressing the desire to jump off what might be perceived as a sinking ship, HMS Britain.

Change

So back to that 'black hole'. Should the current government make the decision to rejoin the EU, what would that mean in reality?

There would of course be political repercussions from the hardline Brexit headbangers within the Tory party and Nigel Farage's Reform UK. Such protestations could of course be stemmed by proposing a final binding referendum, now that the British public has seen the fallout from the 2016 Brexit decision.

Negotiations could then be discussed, in lieu of this, with EU counterparts with a proposal to implement article 49, and thus pave the way to Britain's rejoining the bloc.

The mere proposal to rejoin, while upsetting some, would likely increase confidence within business and could bolster investment from abroad if seen as a serious attempt at becoming a key player within Europe once again. This in turn could see deficits reduced and a rebuilding of the economy.

Of course there will be hurdles. And it could take up to ten years before being ratified - though there is a slim chance that this could be sped up if there was agreement on all sides.

A change of direction, rather than the 'make Brexit work' approach - which clearly isn't working, has a far greater potential of bringing back some buoyancy to HMS Britain and help turn the ship around.

Britain may still have some future, but not whilst it is sailing around in a rudderless ship without a clear set course, and from which greater numbers of passengers and crew are fleeing in whatever lifeboats they can find.


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