With just a week to go before the US 2024 election, there are many who still feel that Kamala Harris has a strong chance of preventing Donald Trump from returning to the White House. However, while Harris is undoubtedly the less worse candidate, it is unlikely that she will make gains in the few days left before Americans head to the polls.
The threat from Donald Trump is clear to anyone with eyes and ears. But there are a number of reasons why he remains a strong contender in the race for the presidency.
Character over substance
Putting aside Trump's lack of vision and policy, he has managed to dominate the news agenda with bizarre comments and off the wall statements. From claiming that groups of Haitian immigrants are engaged in eating dogs and cats to strange ramblings about a dead golfer's penis Trump has controlled the narrative. Week on week the mainstream media have been more focused on Trump's latest faux pas than what Kamala Harris might be saying. And even when the democratic candidate does make headlines it has tended to be more on her reaction over Trump latest comments rather than her policies.
Fraught campaign
The Democratic Party has made several mistakes in this campaign. The first major mistake was not to put forward a serious contender in place of the incumbent Joe Biden. It was clear, even months prior to the campaign beginning, that he was not in a fit mental state. THen came the disastrous presidential debate in June 2024 [BBC / YouTube]. Even after the car crash of a presidential debate with Donald Trump it was weeks before he eventually stood down and handed the baton to Kamala Harris.
The debate on the 27th June triggered many democrats to suggest he might step back while media pundits poured over the growing evidence that Biden was clearly unfit for the job. By July 19, 2024, more than 30 senior Democrats had called for him to withdraw. Finally on July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew his candidacy via a signed letter posted on his personal Twitter account, writing that this was "in the best interest of my party and the country" While Kamala Harris 2024 launched her presidential campaign on the same day she only became official Democratic presidential nominee on August 5, 2024, nearly forty days after that disastrous debate.
Harris was clearly a better candidate than Biden. However there were far better potential candidates within the party than Harris, who had especially been sidelined during her time as VP. But time was pressing and there was no debate concerning the picking of a different candidate. After all, Biden's ill-conceived candidacy had already wasted weeks of campaign time and Harris now had only 90 days to convince the American public that she was the best choice.
There then followed further delays before Harris picked her running mate Tim Walz who had little if any charisma and was likened by some to being like a middle school governor, indeed he was a former school teacher [BBC]. His prowess at public speaking was also less than inspiring and he also failed to impress during a Vice Presidential debate with Trump's chosen running mate J.D.Vance.
It wasn't helpful either when it was revealed that he wasn't in Hong Kong at the time of the Tiananmen Square massacre as he had previously claimed. When challenged on this Walz rambled on about something else entirely before being challenged once again. "I misspoke," Walz finally conceded [BBC].
A divided America
There are a number of key issues that affect many Americans. One specific issue is that of jobs, tax and the economy. Another is that of gun ownership. And there is also the issue surrounding women's rights and abortion.
Both candidates have spelled out their stance concerning all these issues. Both maintain that their plans for the economy will serve America the best while criticising their opponent for their plans. However even economists are divided as to who would be the best candidate concerning such issues.
Trump has said he is the best choice for the average American. "Together, we will deliver low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates and low inflation so that everyone can afford groceries, a car and a home".
He has also promised tariffs of up to 20% on goods imported into the US, and 60% on all goods from China. His rationale is that by making imported goods more expensive, US companies will be encouraged to make more goods domestically, so American workers will benefit in terms of millions more well-paid manufacturing jobs at home [BBC]. However, some economists fear a trade war could ensue which could trigger a global financial crisis.
Many Americans believe that grocery chains and food companies are ripping them off. Food prices are up by about 25% compared to before the pandemic, and some polls suggest American consumers' view of the grocery industry has sunk to a two-decade low.
Harris has promised to address this, saying "As president, I will take on the high costs that matter most to most Americans, like the cost of food".
Polls appear to indicate that Trump is trusted more on his economic plan according to polling released recently, as the American economy sits at a potential inflection point heading into the election [FT].
However when it comes to women's rights and abortion Harris wins over Trump.
One reflection of this is the lean of male voters towards Trump whilst women are leaning towards Harris.
Gun control is one of the most polarising issues in American politics, and whilst it hasn't been a key issue discussed during the debates and discussions leading up to the election it has concerned people on both sides of the political spectrum.
Harris says she favours the Second Amendment and said in the September 10th debate with Trump that she owns a gun. However this has not allayed fears that the Democrats will restrict gun owners rights. Indeed Harris has said she would "ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, require universal background checks, and support red flag laws that keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people." On the face of it these seem sensible measures given the number of mass shootings in the US. But the right to bear arms runs deep in America, even the likes of automatic assault weapons.
Despite having two failed assassination attempts on his own life, Trump has stated that "no one will lay a finger on your firearms" if he wins the election [CBS].
Personality cult
While Harris's policies are, on balance, focused and level headed, many Americans are drawn more towards personality. While the political pundits fact check and dismiss much of what Trump says at his rallies, it means little to his supporters.
"I don't think he really means that," one Trump supporter says, referring to the former president's comments concerning dogs and cats, "He says things for effect."
Trump is a showman more than a politician. His speeches often last for hours and despite being 78 he shows stamina, even if much of what he says is untrue or has only a slim basis in fact.
For many that attend his rallies he has irresistible comedic value that finds the audience compelled to watch and listen for hours [FT].
Warnings and criticism
There are many former members of Trump's administration that have come out and criticised the former president. With just days to go before America goes to the polls John Kelly, the Trump White House's longest-serving chief of staff, said that he believed that Donald Trump met the definition of a fascist and that he was an existential threat to democracy [CNN]. In the days that followed more former aides broke cover to back up Kelly's comments [Guardian].
But it all seems too little too late. Why did these individuals not come forward sooner? Coming out this late in the campaign is unlikely to shift the balance and tip the scales in favour of Harris.
Trump has mused in recent speeches and interviews about turning the US military on political rivals he has referred to as the "enemy within", comments that Harris has pointed to as evidence that the former president is "unhinged" and poses a danger to democratic values [CNN].
Kelly might have acted late in coming out as did H.R.McMaster, who spent 13 months as National Security Advisor in the Trump White House, with his recent book At War with Ourselves, but they aren't the first to bring attention to Trump's being unfit to hold office.
John Bolton, a former US National Security Adviser, was one of the first to express his misgivings about the former president in his book The Room Where It Happened published in June 2020. The book was a scathing and revelatory attack on Trump.
Bolton sys Trump had "no grand strategy" and displayed "a random walk" with "a total focus on re-election" [USA Today - YouTube].
Some four years on, Bolton's opinion has barely shifted. "Trump is unfit to be president," Bolton wrote in the new foreword to "The Room Where it Happened," his account of the 17 months he spent as Trump's national security adviser. "If his first four years were bad, a second four will be worse."
However, despite many Republicans jumping ship and endorsing Harris and criticism growing from former members of the Trump White House, the polls show an almost level pegging between the two candidates.
Polls
It has often been said there are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics. And polls too, could be taken with a large pinch of salt. With a week to go before the 2024 election national polls appeared to show Harris and Trump at 47% each [CNN].
However, for whatever reason, Republicans often under poll, as was explained by James Carville, who rose to prominence for helping Bill Clinton to the White House in 1992. Speaking on Bill Maher's Real Time in late August, Carville said, "I tell Democrats, some caution here. First of all, most quants [quantitative analysts] say we have to win by three in the popular vote."
"So when you see a poll that says we are two up, well actually you are one down if the poll is correct."
"Trump traditionally, when he is on a ballot, chronically under polls. They came back late in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2020 and it showed Biden winning these states by seven or eight points."
Polls are no exact science and while Harris has certainly done better than Biden in polls, it's not a slam dunk.
Moreover, it is not the popular vote that paves the way to the White House, but the winning of so-called 'swing states'.
Skewed electoral system
America's electoral system is hinged upon candidates securing what are called electoral colleges. Each of the 50 US states is assigned a number of college votes which translate to representatives. Some states have many college votes such as California with some 54 while others have just a handful. The number of college votes is related to the population and can thus change over time. This means that the swing-states, that can affect the outcome of the election, can change from one election to another [Vox - YouTube].
Trump did not win the popular vote in 2016, but nonetheless took the presidency due to taking more Electoral College votes.The current state of play appears to indicate Trump only needing to secure Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia in order to secure the presidency.
The strongly leaning states currently show Harris with 226 electoral college votes against Trump's 219, with the milestone being 270. But there are 7 states where polls don't show a clear winner; Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pensylvannia, North Carolina and Georgia.
The likely key states in this race are the aforementioned Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Trump won North Carolina in 2016 and while polls show a shift towards the Democrats, it may not be enough to tip the scales [BBC].
Another key state is that of Georgia where latest polls also seem to indicate that Trump has a slight lead over Harris [Newsweek].
Given the polls are correct, Trump would thus only need to secure Pennsylvania. However polls here show a divide of less than 1%, with latest polling showing Trump just 0.3% ahead of his rival.
However if the likes of Carville are correct, Trump may have a win here too. If Trump takes these three along with what are seen as Republican leaning states, Harris has little chance even if she takes the rest of the battleground states as well as traditional Democratic states [CNN].
Possible outcomes
Few are willing to predict the outcome of this election, despite all indications showing a Trump win.
But what will the return of a Trump presidency mean? Some have opined that given Trump's right-wing leanings and praise of Hitler, that a 'Third Reich or sorts could emerge. Of course others have dismissed this as hyperbole.
However, Donald Trump has talked about using the military and the National Guard to control chaos on election day approaching on the 5th November. Asked if he was worried about violence by immigrants, he answered: "I think the bigger problem is the enemy within," continuing to say that "radical left-lunatics" could pose a potential problem on Election Day. "It should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard or if really necessary by the military." In some appearances, the former President has named Representative Adam Schiff and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi as "enemies within."
But would Trump really round up his enemies in something reminiscent of the 'Night of the Long Knives', a purge that took place in Nazi Germany from 30 June to 2 July 1934. Some certainly fear he might.
However, former White House national security adviser John Bolton has suggested that while a second Trump administration poses "dangers" for the country, former President Trump is "not capable" of being a fascist.
"I think his behaviour alone is troubling enough," he told CNN host Kaitlan Collins. "To be a fascist, you have to have a philosophy. Trump's not capable of that."
It might be true to say that Trump is not the brightest spanner in the toolkit, but that doesn't make him any less dangerous.
Trump deploys language to confuse, destroy, and obliterate any sense of meaning or common understanding. Indeed he has often failed to follow through on declared objectives. Barely any of the wall between Mexico and America got built, and Mexico has yet to receive the bill!
Fears of Civil War
Whilst the face of America will undoubtedly change when Trump wins, there could be a worse outcome if he fails to secure a second term.
One worse case scenario could be a call to arms by militias across America if they feel the election has been 'stolen' from them. Such a scenario could quickly spiral out of control and descend into civil war.
Is this fanciful? Well, some have already called for an insurrection should Trump lose. In June Ohio state Sen. George Lang said that civil war would be necessary if former President Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election.
If Trump loses the election, former Trump-administration official Peter Navarro has declared that "the country will disintegrate."
But it's not just Trump supporters that are raising concerns. One in four Americans fear a civil war could break out following the presidential election, a new poll has found. A YouGov poll of 1,266 registered voters has found that 84% of citizens believe America is more divided today than ten years ago. And 12% of respondents claimed to know someone who "might take up arms" if they believed Donald Trump is "cheated" of an election victory. Five percent said they knew someone who would do the same for Kamala Harris [Daily Mail].
Such prospects will make January 6th look like a Sunday school picnic.
The threat from Donald Trump is clear to anyone with eyes and ears. But there are a number of reasons why he remains a strong contender in the race for the presidency.
Character over substance
Putting aside Trump's lack of vision and policy, he has managed to dominate the news agenda with bizarre comments and off the wall statements. From claiming that groups of Haitian immigrants are engaged in eating dogs and cats to strange ramblings about a dead golfer's penis Trump has controlled the narrative. Week on week the mainstream media have been more focused on Trump's latest faux pas than what Kamala Harris might be saying. And even when the democratic candidate does make headlines it has tended to be more on her reaction over Trump latest comments rather than her policies.
Fraught campaign
The Democratic Party has made several mistakes in this campaign. The first major mistake was not to put forward a serious contender in place of the incumbent Joe Biden. It was clear, even months prior to the campaign beginning, that he was not in a fit mental state. THen came the disastrous presidential debate in June 2024 [BBC / YouTube]. Even after the car crash of a presidential debate with Donald Trump it was weeks before he eventually stood down and handed the baton to Kamala Harris.
The debate on the 27th June triggered many democrats to suggest he might step back while media pundits poured over the growing evidence that Biden was clearly unfit for the job. By July 19, 2024, more than 30 senior Democrats had called for him to withdraw. Finally on July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew his candidacy via a signed letter posted on his personal Twitter account, writing that this was "in the best interest of my party and the country" While Kamala Harris 2024 launched her presidential campaign on the same day she only became official Democratic presidential nominee on August 5, 2024, nearly forty days after that disastrous debate.
Harris was clearly a better candidate than Biden. However there were far better potential candidates within the party than Harris, who had especially been sidelined during her time as VP. But time was pressing and there was no debate concerning the picking of a different candidate. After all, Biden's ill-conceived candidacy had already wasted weeks of campaign time and Harris now had only 90 days to convince the American public that she was the best choice.
There then followed further delays before Harris picked her running mate Tim Walz who had little if any charisma and was likened by some to being like a middle school governor, indeed he was a former school teacher [BBC]. His prowess at public speaking was also less than inspiring and he also failed to impress during a Vice Presidential debate with Trump's chosen running mate J.D.Vance.
It wasn't helpful either when it was revealed that he wasn't in Hong Kong at the time of the Tiananmen Square massacre as he had previously claimed. When challenged on this Walz rambled on about something else entirely before being challenged once again. "I misspoke," Walz finally conceded [BBC].
A divided America
There are a number of key issues that affect many Americans. One specific issue is that of jobs, tax and the economy. Another is that of gun ownership. And there is also the issue surrounding women's rights and abortion.
Both candidates have spelled out their stance concerning all these issues. Both maintain that their plans for the economy will serve America the best while criticising their opponent for their plans. However even economists are divided as to who would be the best candidate concerning such issues.
Trump has said he is the best choice for the average American. "Together, we will deliver low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates and low inflation so that everyone can afford groceries, a car and a home".
He has also promised tariffs of up to 20% on goods imported into the US, and 60% on all goods from China. His rationale is that by making imported goods more expensive, US companies will be encouraged to make more goods domestically, so American workers will benefit in terms of millions more well-paid manufacturing jobs at home [BBC]. However, some economists fear a trade war could ensue which could trigger a global financial crisis.
Many Americans believe that grocery chains and food companies are ripping them off. Food prices are up by about 25% compared to before the pandemic, and some polls suggest American consumers' view of the grocery industry has sunk to a two-decade low.
Harris has promised to address this, saying "As president, I will take on the high costs that matter most to most Americans, like the cost of food".
Polls appear to indicate that Trump is trusted more on his economic plan according to polling released recently, as the American economy sits at a potential inflection point heading into the election [FT].
However when it comes to women's rights and abortion Harris wins over Trump.
One reflection of this is the lean of male voters towards Trump whilst women are leaning towards Harris.
Gun control is one of the most polarising issues in American politics, and whilst it hasn't been a key issue discussed during the debates and discussions leading up to the election it has concerned people on both sides of the political spectrum.
Harris says she favours the Second Amendment and said in the September 10th debate with Trump that she owns a gun. However this has not allayed fears that the Democrats will restrict gun owners rights. Indeed Harris has said she would "ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, require universal background checks, and support red flag laws that keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people." On the face of it these seem sensible measures given the number of mass shootings in the US. But the right to bear arms runs deep in America, even the likes of automatic assault weapons.
Despite having two failed assassination attempts on his own life, Trump has stated that "no one will lay a finger on your firearms" if he wins the election [CBS].
Personality cult
While Harris's policies are, on balance, focused and level headed, many Americans are drawn more towards personality. While the political pundits fact check and dismiss much of what Trump says at his rallies, it means little to his supporters.
"I don't think he really means that," one Trump supporter says, referring to the former president's comments concerning dogs and cats, "He says things for effect."
Trump is a showman more than a politician. His speeches often last for hours and despite being 78 he shows stamina, even if much of what he says is untrue or has only a slim basis in fact.
For many that attend his rallies he has irresistible comedic value that finds the audience compelled to watch and listen for hours [FT].
Warnings and criticism
There are many former members of Trump's administration that have come out and criticised the former president. With just days to go before America goes to the polls John Kelly, the Trump White House's longest-serving chief of staff, said that he believed that Donald Trump met the definition of a fascist and that he was an existential threat to democracy [CNN]. In the days that followed more former aides broke cover to back up Kelly's comments [Guardian].
But it all seems too little too late. Why did these individuals not come forward sooner? Coming out this late in the campaign is unlikely to shift the balance and tip the scales in favour of Harris.
Trump has mused in recent speeches and interviews about turning the US military on political rivals he has referred to as the "enemy within", comments that Harris has pointed to as evidence that the former president is "unhinged" and poses a danger to democratic values [CNN].
Kelly might have acted late in coming out as did H.R.McMaster, who spent 13 months as National Security Advisor in the Trump White House, with his recent book At War with Ourselves, but they aren't the first to bring attention to Trump's being unfit to hold office.
John Bolton, a former US National Security Adviser, was one of the first to express his misgivings about the former president in his book The Room Where It Happened published in June 2020. The book was a scathing and revelatory attack on Trump.
Bolton sys Trump had "no grand strategy" and displayed "a random walk" with "a total focus on re-election" [USA Today - YouTube].
Some four years on, Bolton's opinion has barely shifted. "Trump is unfit to be president," Bolton wrote in the new foreword to "The Room Where it Happened," his account of the 17 months he spent as Trump's national security adviser. "If his first four years were bad, a second four will be worse."
However, despite many Republicans jumping ship and endorsing Harris and criticism growing from former members of the Trump White House, the polls show an almost level pegging between the two candidates.
Polls
It has often been said there are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics. And polls too, could be taken with a large pinch of salt. With a week to go before the 2024 election national polls appeared to show Harris and Trump at 47% each [CNN].
However, for whatever reason, Republicans often under poll, as was explained by James Carville, who rose to prominence for helping Bill Clinton to the White House in 1992. Speaking on Bill Maher's Real Time in late August, Carville said, "I tell Democrats, some caution here. First of all, most quants [quantitative analysts] say we have to win by three in the popular vote."
"So when you see a poll that says we are two up, well actually you are one down if the poll is correct."
"Trump traditionally, when he is on a ballot, chronically under polls. They came back late in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2020 and it showed Biden winning these states by seven or eight points."
Polls are no exact science and while Harris has certainly done better than Biden in polls, it's not a slam dunk.
Moreover, it is not the popular vote that paves the way to the White House, but the winning of so-called 'swing states'.
Skewed electoral system
America's electoral system is hinged upon candidates securing what are called electoral colleges. Each of the 50 US states is assigned a number of college votes which translate to representatives. Some states have many college votes such as California with some 54 while others have just a handful. The number of college votes is related to the population and can thus change over time. This means that the swing-states, that can affect the outcome of the election, can change from one election to another [Vox - YouTube].
Trump did not win the popular vote in 2016, but nonetheless took the presidency due to taking more Electoral College votes.The current state of play appears to indicate Trump only needing to secure Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia in order to secure the presidency.
The strongly leaning states currently show Harris with 226 electoral college votes against Trump's 219, with the milestone being 270. But there are 7 states where polls don't show a clear winner; Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pensylvannia, North Carolina and Georgia.
The likely key states in this race are the aforementioned Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Trump won North Carolina in 2016 and while polls show a shift towards the Democrats, it may not be enough to tip the scales [BBC].
Another key state is that of Georgia where latest polls also seem to indicate that Trump has a slight lead over Harris [Newsweek].
Given the polls are correct, Trump would thus only need to secure Pennsylvania. However polls here show a divide of less than 1%, with latest polling showing Trump just 0.3% ahead of his rival.
However if the likes of Carville are correct, Trump may have a win here too. If Trump takes these three along with what are seen as Republican leaning states, Harris has little chance even if she takes the rest of the battleground states as well as traditional Democratic states [CNN].
Possible outcomes
Few are willing to predict the outcome of this election, despite all indications showing a Trump win.
But what will the return of a Trump presidency mean? Some have opined that given Trump's right-wing leanings and praise of Hitler, that a 'Third Reich or sorts could emerge. Of course others have dismissed this as hyperbole.
However, Donald Trump has talked about using the military and the National Guard to control chaos on election day approaching on the 5th November. Asked if he was worried about violence by immigrants, he answered: "I think the bigger problem is the enemy within," continuing to say that "radical left-lunatics" could pose a potential problem on Election Day. "It should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard or if really necessary by the military." In some appearances, the former President has named Representative Adam Schiff and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi as "enemies within."
But would Trump really round up his enemies in something reminiscent of the 'Night of the Long Knives', a purge that took place in Nazi Germany from 30 June to 2 July 1934. Some certainly fear he might.
However, former White House national security adviser John Bolton has suggested that while a second Trump administration poses "dangers" for the country, former President Trump is "not capable" of being a fascist.
"I think his behaviour alone is troubling enough," he told CNN host Kaitlan Collins. "To be a fascist, you have to have a philosophy. Trump's not capable of that."
It might be true to say that Trump is not the brightest spanner in the toolkit, but that doesn't make him any less dangerous.
Trump deploys language to confuse, destroy, and obliterate any sense of meaning or common understanding. Indeed he has often failed to follow through on declared objectives. Barely any of the wall between Mexico and America got built, and Mexico has yet to receive the bill!
Fears of Civil War
Whilst the face of America will undoubtedly change when Trump wins, there could be a worse outcome if he fails to secure a second term.
One worse case scenario could be a call to arms by militias across America if they feel the election has been 'stolen' from them. Such a scenario could quickly spiral out of control and descend into civil war.
Is this fanciful? Well, some have already called for an insurrection should Trump lose. In June Ohio state Sen. George Lang said that civil war would be necessary if former President Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election.
If Trump loses the election, former Trump-administration official Peter Navarro has declared that "the country will disintegrate."
But it's not just Trump supporters that are raising concerns. One in four Americans fear a civil war could break out following the presidential election, a new poll has found. A YouGov poll of 1,266 registered voters has found that 84% of citizens believe America is more divided today than ten years ago. And 12% of respondents claimed to know someone who "might take up arms" if they believed Donald Trump is "cheated" of an election victory. Five percent said they knew someone who would do the same for Kamala Harris [Daily Mail].
Such prospects will make January 6th look like a Sunday school picnic.
The Daily Show's Jon Stewart described the closing days of the election campaign as a "What the f***" moment in American history. "Did we all just die during COVID and is this some surreal purgatory?" Stewart ponders following Trump's latest publicity stunt of cooking fries at a branch of McDonald's. "Or maybe it's a dream!" [The Daily Show]. Sadly not. This will be America's nightmare from which the rest of the world will catch more than just a cold.
tvnewswatch, London, UK
tvnewswatch, London, UK
