Following Labour's landslide in the UK general election with less votes than the Corbyn party managed to achieve in 2019 there has been much debate over whether it is time to push for electoral reform. But would a move to proportional representation be beneficial and would it result in parties such as Reform UK being given a bigger platform?
Channel 4 News recently showed what the UK parliament might look like if the 4th July vote had been translated into seats under proportional representation. On the face of it Labour is certainly diminished with both the Tories and Reform UK taking a great deal more seats. However, if people were voting under a proportional representation system the electorate would likely vote very differently.
In July's election many people voted 'tactically' to 'get the Tories out' rather than with their heart and along party lines. Unless a staunch Lib Dem member, those who might have otherwise voted for the Liberal Democrats would in many constituencies shifted to vote Labour. This lending of votes gives a false impression that Labour had gained support amongst the British electorate.
There would have been many Tory supporters who were disillusioned with their party but unable to swing further right to Reform UK. This same demographic might have supported the Lib Dems but felt there would have been little point in areas where the Lib Dems only garner a relatively small level of support.
This may also partially explain the extremely low turnout which on average measured in at just 59.9%.
This of course does not fully explain what occurred on Thursday 4th July. Causes of voter apathy are multifold. There is of course a growing disillusionment with politicians on all sides. There is a growing feeling that whoever one votes for, nothing will ultimately change.
This is almost certainly true with the first past the post system. British politics has, for at least 100 years, simply rocked back and forth between Labour and the Conservatives. And apart from a few brief periods where sitting governments have sought to form an alliance or pact, there has always been a majority with minor parties having very little influence on policy.
Those opposing proportional representation often point to Israel and its having to form tenuous coalitions. But Israel is an exception given it has a relatively small house and also a fractured politique.
But beyond Israel many countries that use PR have few problems. In Europe, the UK is one of only three countries not using PR. Belarus and France are the only outliers. Some 31 countries use a Party List Proportional Representation while five use a Parallel voting/Mixed system, two use a Single Transferable Vote and two use a Mixed Member Proportional Representation.
For Brits these terms may seem confusing. Certainly the First Past the Post [FPTP] is simple to understand, but in many instances across constituencies there are situations where more than half the electorate are represented by someone they didn't vote for.
The disparity and division is even more stark if turnout is low. In the case of the recent election voter turnout was as low as 50% in some constituencies with the declared winner taking as little as 30% of those who bothered to vote.
For example Basildon, which has an electorate of nearly 77,000, saw a turnout of 55%. This accounted for around a little over 42,000 actually turning out to vote. Of this the vote for the winning candidate and that in second place was just 22 votes and accounted for 30.6% each of those that voted. But of the overall electorate the winning candidate only took 16.7%.
Of course one could blame the 45% who, for whatever reason, didn't vote. But even putting that aside, some 69% of those that voted did not vote for the winning candidate.
While there is certainly an element of apathy on the part of voters, one major factor behind many people's not taking part in an election is due to the fact that their vote more often than not doesn't get recognised.
In this particular constituency the 5% of voters backed Green and the Lib Dems. Yet in our current FPTP system the Greens took 4 seats which represents a little under 1% of the seats in parliament. On average the vote for the Green party was between 4 and 6%. Though with strong campaigning and other factors the party beat all odds and gained 4 seats with a vote share of between 40 and 56%.
The Lib Dems' share varied across the country. In some areas their vote barely exceeded 1 or 2%. But in areas in which it secured seats it often took in excess of 40% of the vote. Yet overall the number of seats secured in parliament, while much larger than in previous elections, did not reflect the number of votes the Lib Dems received overall.
According to the Electoral Reform Society the 2024 election was "one of the most disproportionate results in recent history", with Labour winning 63% of seats from only 33.8% of the vote. Should the UK have used a more proportional system, Reform UK would expect to have 93 MPs, the Green party 44, the Lib Dems 79, the Conservatives 154, and Labour would have only 220.
For those proposing a change to the electoral system , which have tended to err on centrist or fringe parties, such figures might be concerning, given such a system could potentially give a right-wing party headed by Nigel Farage 93 seats over his current 5. The Greens would also have gained significantly too, up from a meagre 4 MPs to 44. Meanwhile the Lib Dems would only have secured a handful of extra seats. The Tories would remain in second place and slightly higher than their current number of seats. But Labour would have no sweeping mandate as it would have no majority in the house.
Indeed in such a situation, such is often the case in places like Germany, coalitions or agreements are made, if not on a permanent basis, certainly for passing legislation upon which like-minded parties can agree.
Ironically it has been the right-wing press, and members of right leaning parties that have added their voice to the call for electoral reform. Ahead of the election many papers and politicians were raising fears of a so-called Labour-dictatorship with its likely super majority.
Of course it is very much sour grapes since it is unlikely those same papers or politicians would be calling for a rethink of the way elections are decided should the polls have been showing the Conservatives to be heading towards a landslide victory.
While for many people, Farage's politics are reprehensible, he makes a valid point when it comes to representation in parliament and how skewed the system is.
There are those on the left and among centrists that might fear a move to PR, given how Reform UK could seize a large number of seats - based on the 2024 election at least.
However, a PR system might prompt people to vote much differently. There would, for example, be far less tactical voting since every vote would count. Moreover, given this, many otherwise apathetic voters might feel more inclined to exercise their democratic choice.
Labour could, with its large mandate, push electoral reform through. However, it is unlikely so to do. It has made no commitment in its manifesto, and in previous questions concerning electoral reform Labour has always rejected the notion. Moreover, given its having received such a large majority on so few votes, Labour would be unlikely to facilitate a loss of such a mandate.
The word Change might have dominated Labour's manifesto, but they will be reluctant to rock the current status quo.
Unfortunately it will mean that in the medium to long term one can only look forward to the ping pong political charade that is first past the post.
Labour may not in a single term manage to turn the economy around or fix the multitude of problems left in the wake of 14 years of Tory chaos, Brexit, the fallout from the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. But the disaster of the Tory years will still remain fresh in people's minds in 5 years time, thus resulting in a likely second term for Labour. However, after a decade of being unable to fix Brexit Britain, a more moderate Tory party will probably return once again.
The only possible chance of breaking this cycle will be if Labour loses its majority when the country goes to the polls again in 2029 and are forced by the opposition to make a change to Britain's broken electoral system.
[electoral-reform / election24 / Guardian / YouGov / Guardian / Guardian comment / C4News - YouTube / Daily Mail / Independent (paywall) /
tvnewswatch, London, UK
Channel 4 News recently showed what the UK parliament might look like if the 4th July vote had been translated into seats under proportional representation. On the face of it Labour is certainly diminished with both the Tories and Reform UK taking a great deal more seats. However, if people were voting under a proportional representation system the electorate would likely vote very differently.
In July's election many people voted 'tactically' to 'get the Tories out' rather than with their heart and along party lines. Unless a staunch Lib Dem member, those who might have otherwise voted for the Liberal Democrats would in many constituencies shifted to vote Labour. This lending of votes gives a false impression that Labour had gained support amongst the British electorate.
There would have been many Tory supporters who were disillusioned with their party but unable to swing further right to Reform UK. This same demographic might have supported the Lib Dems but felt there would have been little point in areas where the Lib Dems only garner a relatively small level of support.
This may also partially explain the extremely low turnout which on average measured in at just 59.9%.
This of course does not fully explain what occurred on Thursday 4th July. Causes of voter apathy are multifold. There is of course a growing disillusionment with politicians on all sides. There is a growing feeling that whoever one votes for, nothing will ultimately change.
This is almost certainly true with the first past the post system. British politics has, for at least 100 years, simply rocked back and forth between Labour and the Conservatives. And apart from a few brief periods where sitting governments have sought to form an alliance or pact, there has always been a majority with minor parties having very little influence on policy.
Those opposing proportional representation often point to Israel and its having to form tenuous coalitions. But Israel is an exception given it has a relatively small house and also a fractured politique.
But beyond Israel many countries that use PR have few problems. In Europe, the UK is one of only three countries not using PR. Belarus and France are the only outliers. Some 31 countries use a Party List Proportional Representation while five use a Parallel voting/Mixed system, two use a Single Transferable Vote and two use a Mixed Member Proportional Representation.
For Brits these terms may seem confusing. Certainly the First Past the Post [FPTP] is simple to understand, but in many instances across constituencies there are situations where more than half the electorate are represented by someone they didn't vote for.
The disparity and division is even more stark if turnout is low. In the case of the recent election voter turnout was as low as 50% in some constituencies with the declared winner taking as little as 30% of those who bothered to vote.
For example Basildon, which has an electorate of nearly 77,000, saw a turnout of 55%. This accounted for around a little over 42,000 actually turning out to vote. Of this the vote for the winning candidate and that in second place was just 22 votes and accounted for 30.6% each of those that voted. But of the overall electorate the winning candidate only took 16.7%.
Of course one could blame the 45% who, for whatever reason, didn't vote. But even putting that aside, some 69% of those that voted did not vote for the winning candidate.
While there is certainly an element of apathy on the part of voters, one major factor behind many people's not taking part in an election is due to the fact that their vote more often than not doesn't get recognised.
In this particular constituency the 5% of voters backed Green and the Lib Dems. Yet in our current FPTP system the Greens took 4 seats which represents a little under 1% of the seats in parliament. On average the vote for the Green party was between 4 and 6%. Though with strong campaigning and other factors the party beat all odds and gained 4 seats with a vote share of between 40 and 56%.
The Lib Dems' share varied across the country. In some areas their vote barely exceeded 1 or 2%. But in areas in which it secured seats it often took in excess of 40% of the vote. Yet overall the number of seats secured in parliament, while much larger than in previous elections, did not reflect the number of votes the Lib Dems received overall.
According to the Electoral Reform Society the 2024 election was "one of the most disproportionate results in recent history", with Labour winning 63% of seats from only 33.8% of the vote. Should the UK have used a more proportional system, Reform UK would expect to have 93 MPs, the Green party 44, the Lib Dems 79, the Conservatives 154, and Labour would have only 220.
For those proposing a change to the electoral system , which have tended to err on centrist or fringe parties, such figures might be concerning, given such a system could potentially give a right-wing party headed by Nigel Farage 93 seats over his current 5. The Greens would also have gained significantly too, up from a meagre 4 MPs to 44. Meanwhile the Lib Dems would only have secured a handful of extra seats. The Tories would remain in second place and slightly higher than their current number of seats. But Labour would have no sweeping mandate as it would have no majority in the house.
Indeed in such a situation, such is often the case in places like Germany, coalitions or agreements are made, if not on a permanent basis, certainly for passing legislation upon which like-minded parties can agree.
Ironically it has been the right-wing press, and members of right leaning parties that have added their voice to the call for electoral reform. Ahead of the election many papers and politicians were raising fears of a so-called Labour-dictatorship with its likely super majority.
Of course it is very much sour grapes since it is unlikely those same papers or politicians would be calling for a rethink of the way elections are decided should the polls have been showing the Conservatives to be heading towards a landslide victory.
While for many people, Farage's politics are reprehensible, he makes a valid point when it comes to representation in parliament and how skewed the system is.
There are those on the left and among centrists that might fear a move to PR, given how Reform UK could seize a large number of seats - based on the 2024 election at least.
However, a PR system might prompt people to vote much differently. There would, for example, be far less tactical voting since every vote would count. Moreover, given this, many otherwise apathetic voters might feel more inclined to exercise their democratic choice.
Labour could, with its large mandate, push electoral reform through. However, it is unlikely so to do. It has made no commitment in its manifesto, and in previous questions concerning electoral reform Labour has always rejected the notion. Moreover, given its having received such a large majority on so few votes, Labour would be unlikely to facilitate a loss of such a mandate.
The word Change might have dominated Labour's manifesto, but they will be reluctant to rock the current status quo.
Unfortunately it will mean that in the medium to long term one can only look forward to the ping pong political charade that is first past the post.
Labour may not in a single term manage to turn the economy around or fix the multitude of problems left in the wake of 14 years of Tory chaos, Brexit, the fallout from the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. But the disaster of the Tory years will still remain fresh in people's minds in 5 years time, thus resulting in a likely second term for Labour. However, after a decade of being unable to fix Brexit Britain, a more moderate Tory party will probably return once again.
The only possible chance of breaking this cycle will be if Labour loses its majority when the country goes to the polls again in 2029 and are forced by the opposition to make a change to Britain's broken electoral system.
[electoral-reform / election24 / Guardian / YouGov / Guardian / Guardian comment / C4News - YouTube / Daily Mail / Independent (paywall) /
tvnewswatch, London, UK
