USA on the road to a fascist state

The 47th President of the United States has said "there are methods" for seeking a third term in White House and added that he wasn't joking during an interview with NBC aired on Sunday 30th March. His bold assertion came after just 70 days in office.

If it wasn't clear to anybody by now that Trump has all but created an American Fascist state then they are surely delusionary.

First 70 days

In the 70 days in office Trump has ruled by diktat, signing countless executive orders that have overwhelmed the judiciary. When judges have attempted to countermand his orders Trump has simply ignored them and steamrollered ahead, ignoring the judges and the constitution. One particular case in point was when more than 200 Venezuelan individuals were deported in shackles to a supermax prison in El Salvador

In other high profile cases, members of ICE [The US Immigration & Customs Enforcement agency] have grabbed individuals and summarily arrested them without charge and incarcerated them at detention centres. The first high profile case was when US Immigration authorities arrested Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil amid President Trump's crackdown on pro-Palestinian campus activism. Then on the 25th March ICE arrested a Tufts University doctoral student who co-authored an op-ed supporting Palestine. Rümeysa Öztürk was taken from the street by masked, plainclothes officers in a Boston-area suburb before being bundled into an unmarked car and disappeared. Her lawyers were unable to find her for many hours until she finally surfaced at a detention centre in Louisiana, some 2,500 km away.

For some it might be brushed away as radicals and criminals being rounded up. But for others, even for those not necessarily sympathetic to the political cause of Khalil and Öztürk, it is disquieting.

The clampdown of supposed dissent and the rounding up of 'illegal immigrants' has prompted many to recollect Martin Niemöller's infamous quote.

Martin Niemöller was a German theologian and Lutheran pastor. He is known for his opposition to the Nazi regime during the late 1930s. But he is best remembered for his quote made following the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

"First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."

While Trump's targets for deportation and incarceration have differed, Niemöller's statement made in the mid-1940s has brought back uncomfortable memories from the past.

It has often been said that while history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes.

Echoes from the past

Trump's second term in office and his consolidation of power has greatly concerned many for the strong similarities of Hitler's rise to power.

On the face of it, this might seem like an exaggeration and hyperbole. But there are a great many similarities as well as differences.

Hitler's battle with the judicial system and his being jailed arguably helped him into power as his incarceration was seen by some at the time as being a witch hunt.  Having failed in taking power by force, Hitler chose the ballot box to secure his grip on Germany.

Similarly, Trump failed to overturn an election with an insurrection - known simply as January 6th - and faced multiple charges which he capitalised upon by claiming it was a witch hunt.

Both would-be dictators came to power on the ticket of promising to make their respective countries great once more. The mantra of Make America Great Again is little different from what Hitler, and other fascist leaders such as Mussolini and Austria's Engelbert Dollfuss attempted to sell to their people in the 1930s.

It is all too simplistic, of course, to make direct comparisons with the likes of Hitler. But fascism comes in many guises. Fascism does not necessarily come with neat uniforms, jackboots and swastikas. Dollfuss was a fascist, but most often wore a suit. Mussolini's attire was somewhat militaristic but less extreme than the imagery the Nazis employed. Politically too, facism can take different forms. Hitler's fascism was on one extreme level while Austria's Engelbert Dollfuss' fascistic rule was liberal by comparison. Indeed, pressured by Hitler to allow his country to be annexed, Dollfuss was for a time even protected and supported by Italy's Mussollini.

Where fascism is mostly grounded is in its focus on 'the leader'. It might even become a cult of personality as seen with China's Mao Zedong or in North Korea with its dynasty of leaders; Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un.

Trump has already built around himself a cult of followers under the slogan of MAGA. Meanwhile he has repeatedly expressed his expansionist dreams of 'taking back' the Panama Canal, annexing Canada - making it the 51st state - and Greenland with claims it is necessary to protect the security of America.

Peacemaker

Trump meanwhile has proclaimed himself to be the peacemaker with his attempt to broker a 'peace deal' and halt the Russia-Ukraine war. Yet critics have said Trump's real motive is not so much a lasting peace than to be awarded a Nobel peace prize.

His attempts to secure a ceasefire and a peace deal has been criticised for appeasing Vladimir Putin while bullying Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling him a dictator and later at a White House meeting on Friday 28th February 2025, verbally assaulting the beleaguered wartime leader.

That meeting has been likened to an event some 86 years ago when on the evening of the 14th March 1939, Hitler had summoned President Hácha to the Reich Chancellery in Berlin. Hitler had deliberately kept him waiting for hours, while Hitler watched a film. A clear attempt to belittle him. Finally, at 1:30 a.m., on the 15th March 1939, Hitler saw the President. He told Hácha that as they were speaking, the German army was about to invade Czechoslovakia.

In an ultimatum Hitler then gave the Czech President two options: cooperate with Germany, in which case the "entry of German troops would take place in a tolerable manner" and "permit Czechoslovakia a generous life of her own, autonomy and a degree of national freedom..." or face a scenario in which "resistance would be broken by force of arms, using all means."

The German ministers [Göring and Ribbentrop] were pitiless. They literally hunted Dr. Hácha and M. Chvalkovsky around the table on which the documents were lying, thrusting them continually before them, pushing pens into their hands, incessantly repeating that if they continued in their refusal, half of Prague would lie in ruins from bombing within two hours, and that this would be only the beginning. Hundreds of bombers were waiting for the order to take off, and they would receive that order at six in the morning if the signatures were not forthcoming.

While Trump and Vance did not chase Zelenskyy around the Oval office insisting he sign away his country, the public haranguing of the Ukrainian president had strong echoes of the past.

"You got to be more thankful, because let me tell you, you don't have the cards. With us, you have the cards, but without us, you don't have any cards," Trump told Zelenskyy, after a bitter war of words where the vice president J.D.Vance also chimed in to suggest he was ungrateful and hadn't thanked the administration enough for their help.

Trump also accused Zelenskyy of risking millions of lives and risking WWIII in his pushing back of Trump's proposals and his demand for security guarantees..

Following the 1939 meeting Hácha reportedly had a heart attack and eventually signed the documents thrust at him, thus handing over Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany.

Zelenskyy has yet to concede to Trump's and Putin's pressure but the parallels are, nonetheless, stark.

Europe has since come together in solidarity, saying they stand with Zelenskyy and Ukraine. But there is growing unease as Trump's allegiance to Putin seems to increase.

Talks have continued since that fraught meeting, but a ceasefire remains elusive. And for his part, Trump is now reportedly said to be losing patience with the Russian leader. Speaking to NBC the US president said he was "pissed off" with Vladimir Putin over his approach to a ceasefire in Ukraine and threatened to levy tariffs on Moscow's oil exports if the Russian leader does not agree to a truce within a month. Meanwhile Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the minerals deal being pushed at him is being continually changed with the US now seeking rights to mine gas and oil reserves, while still avoiding any mention of security guarantees. 

Tariffs and sabre rattling

With regards the economy, Trump has shocked the world with his widespread tariffs. Particular targets thus far have been Canada, Mexico and China. However, he plans to roll out more far reaching tariffs on Europe and other countries in the coming days and weeks. His policy of tariffs allows Trump to assert his economic power without seeking approval from Congress, another aspect by which the president has secured autocratic power. 

The tariffs have rocked markets and political establishments around the globe. Some nations have kow towed to Trumpian demands while others have sought to negotiate with him in order to soften the blow to their export market. Others, such as Canada, China and the EU as a whole have threatened reciprocal tariffs.

It is not entirely clear what Trump's motive and end game is. Tariffs applied to foreign nations, while potentially hurting said countries, also hurt the US consumer. A 25% tariff on European cars does not mean the EU pays more. It means that the importer has to pay the US government the extra 25% which ultimately will be passed to the consumer. Thus a $20,000 car from the EU will suddenly cost the US customer $25,000. The incentive is to get EU car manufacturers to build in the US. However, this can't happen overnight. The other motive is to force more factories to manufacture at home and get Americans to buy products Made in America. This argument falls down, in that many of the raw materials or parts needed to make such products are imported from abroad, and on which Trump has already placed punitive tariffs.

There have been suggestions that members of his own administration are capitalising on the volatility by shorting the markets. The suggestion has been rebutted by the White House. When White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt was asked,"You're sure nobody here at the White House shorted the Dow?"   she responded by saying "No, I don't think so."

Consolidation of Power

But what of Trump's longer term plans? Perhaps one of the best ways to answer this would be to point to Project 2025, a political initiative to reshape the federal government of the United States and consolidate executive power in favour of right-wing policies.

Dismissed during the 2024 campaign by Trump himself, as something he was not familiar with, Project 2025 has been key to Trump's game plan.

In particular the project calls for merit-based federal civil service workers to be replaced by people loyal to Trump and to take partisan control of key government agencies, including the Department of Justice [DOJ], Federal Bureau of Investigation [FBI], Department of Commerce [DOC], and Federal Trade Commission [FTC].

With respect to this Trump has placed Elon Musk in charge, and who has laid off thousands of government employees under the umbrella Department Of Government Efficiency [DOGE].

The project has also laid out plans for other agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security [DHS] and the Department of Education [ED], to be dismantled or abolished.

In this regard Trump has already signed an executive order aimed at the dismantling of the Department of Education. In addition the Trump administration has shut down three watchdog agencies in the Department of Homeland Security.

All of this has occurred without congressional oversight in as much as most decisions thus far have been made by presidential decree in the form of executive orders.

Criminalising porn & targeting LGBTQ+

One key element of Project 2025 is its proposal to criminalise pornography. To date no overt plans have been enacted upon. However, within Trump's base and amongst ultra-conservative Republicans there would likely be strong support.

While the proposals are certainly targeted towards pornography in general, the Project 2025 proposal is even more sweeping, indicating that its anti-porn language may be covering for a broader crusade against LGBTQ rights.

Within the document it states, "Pornography, manifested today in the omnipresent propagation of transgender ideology and sexualization of children, for instance, is not a political Gordian knot inextricably binding up disparate claims about free speech, property rights, sexual liberation, and child welfare. It has no claim to First Amendment protection. Its purveyors are child predators and misogynistic exploiters of women. Their product is as addictive as any illicit drug and as psychologically destructive as any crime. Pornography should be outlawed. The people who produce and distribute it should be imprisoned. Educators and public librarians who purvey it should be classed as registered sex offenders. And telecommunications and technology firms that facilitate its spread should be shuttered."

While some of this may seem incongruous given Trump's own misogynistic behaviour, it seems likely that he will nonetheless follow through on such proposals.

Already Trump has removed some legal protections against anti-LGBT discrimination and has ended diversity, equity, and inclusion [DEI] programs across government departments which has prompted many large conglomerates to follow suit.

Immigrants and dissidents

One of Trump's most outspoken policies has been one of tackling 'illegal immigration'. Project 2025 recommends the arrest, detention, and mass deportation of illegal immigrants. And within days of the inauguration ICE had been deployed to carry out these objectives. The arrests were carried out without warning making media coverage difficult, and their detention has been veiled in secrecy. Some have been sent to already established detention centres while others have been swiftly deported, ignoring court orders and pushback by politicians and human rights groups. Trump has even looked into the possibility of reopening Guantanamo Bay to house immigrants ahead of their repatriation.

So swift have some of these changes in policy been made that it has been almost impossible for the media to keep up and report on events. When Trump initially ordered that an existing migrant detention facility at the base be expanded to hold some 30,000 people there was some brief reportage across many news platforms. But as immigrants began to arrive, there was scant reporting as events were drowned out by other things the administration was doing.

In fact that has seemingly been much of the game plan in terms of rolling out Trump's plan for autocracy.

End of democracy

With information overload, courts and the judicial system overwhelmed with procedural attempts to counter unconstitutional diktats, and dissent being stifled with arrests which further distracts as media coverage focuses on comparative minutiae, Trump is consolidating his power.

Anyone suggesting Trump is attempting to establish an autocracy and bring about a form of American fascism is accused of wearing a tin-foil hat or being a conspiracy theorist. Yet it seems that to believe otherwise is delusional.

Many of the guardrails of American democracy have, in just a few short weeks, been dispensed with, eroded or ignored. Congress has been left largely impotent, given little, if any, actual legislation has passed through the body. Judges and their rulings have been ignored. And those opposing the administration, either within government or on the streets are being targeted verbally or with detention. Even those entering the United States have found themselves singled out for not having the right viewpoint.

In late March three members of the UK Subs, a punk band, were detained and returned to the UK after flying to Los Angeles for a gig, supposedly for having incorrect visas. One band member suspected it was for his "less than flattering, public comments regarding their president".

Just days before, a French scientist was returned after phone messages critical of Trump were found on his device. It is unclear whether such instances are the tip of the iceberg or an unfortunate mistake met out by overzealous immigration staff.

The detaining of pro-Palestinian activists Mahmoud Khalil and Rümeysa Öztürk may be two anomalies or just two examples of many that have gone unreported because someone was not on hand to record the arrests on their phones. Yet further examples have come to light with another pro-Palestianian activist, Momodou Taal, leaving the US having had his visa revoked. And it emerged just days ago, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that some 300 university students have had their student visas revoked due to involvement in pro-Palestinian protests.

Repeating history

In the 1930s, as Martin Niemöller alludes to, many might not have spoken out as the first inmates arrived at the likes of Dachau. When the first bus arrived at the Dachau concentration camp, located near Munich, Germany, it carried mainly communists, social democrats, dissidents and other undesirables. The incarceration of such individuals may not have created consternation amongst the general population, even if they were fully aware of the goings on at the camp, since they may well have thought these people were 'enemies of the state'. By the time it became an execution camp for gypsies, homosexuals and Jews, it was too late to protest.

The pro-Palestian cause is a divisive issue and tends to attract a greater number of younger, left leaning individuals. Thus in a twist of the words Niemöller uttered some 80 years ago; 'First they came for the pro-Palestinians, and I did not speak out—because I was not a pro-Palestinian. Then they came for the Venezuelans, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Venezuelan. Then they came for the Salvadorans, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Salvadoran. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.'

This is only the list thus far, and it is unclear how far reaching Trump's policy of detainment and expulsion will go. But there have been some dissenting voices. Most vocal have been politicians, political pundits and even comedians to the left of centre. But even some right wing commentators have weighed in, such as Joe Rogan, a Trump supporter who hosts a right leaning radio show podcast.

Speaking soon after the mass deportation of 300 Venezuelans, Rogan expressed his concern that innocent individuals were being swept up in the deportation policy. Whilst he has praised President Donald Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration he expressed horror at the news that the administration had deported a gay Venezuelan asylum-seeker along with suspected members of the Tren de Aragua gang.

"You got to get scared that people who are not criminals are getting lassoed up and deported and sent to El Salvador prisons," Rogan said. "It's horrific," he added. "It's horrific." Sending non-criminals back, Rogan says, was "bad for the cause." Or is it just getting caught?

There will be less chance of accountability as Trump seeks to erode the free press. There is already a push to revoke licences and funding for state run broadcasters. VoA, RFA and others have already been targeted and Marjorie Taylor Greene and others have made a bid to get funding pulled from PBS and NPR.

With the media forced to kowtow to Trump, and with the great leader staring down from Mount Rushmore or from a proposed $100 bill, the Trump Reich will be all but complete.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Sources: Guardian / Guardian / BBC / Reuters / BBC / Guardian / BBC / AP News / Wikipedia / NBC / Sky News / Guardian / ABC / Wikipedia / BBC / NYT / MSNBC / BBC / Yahoo / Guardian / Guardian / BBC / Daily Beast / Independent / BBC / Guardian / MSN / Independent 

 

Threat to the West comes from more than just cyberattacks

On Friday 21st March a massive fire at an electric substation forced the closure of Heathrow Airport resulting in the disruption of some 13,000 flights and affected hundreds of thousands of passengers.

There was speculation early on that the fire might have been deliberate , potentially an asymmetric attack by the Russian state coming on the back of a meeting of some 30 military leaders headed by the UK PM Sir Keir Starmer at Northwood HQ in northwest London.

However, within hours the incident was later described as not suspicious despite the coincidence of events and timing.

If, as both the London Fire Brigade and Metropolitan Police have said, the fire was an unfortunate accident that is perhaps a sigh of relief on one hand.

But for a single fire to shutdown one of the world's busiest airports, it is nonetheless concerning.

Britain's enemies will certainly be taking notes concerning how easy the country can be brought to its knees.

There was no COBRA meeting held following the unprecedented incident. Yet discussions will have likely been held behind closed doors.

UK security services are responsible for protecting the country's infrastructure as well as monitoring external attacks.

Important assets include Britain's nuclear power stations, its rail infrastructure, water distribution networks, electricity supply and transport hubs.

While the substation that went up in flames may have been an inconvenient accident, its destruction was clearly a failure on so many levels.

It is too early to say what failed and caused the fire and explosion, but such a catastrophic failure would surely point to maintenance issues.

Thus it would not be unfair to say that, given its importance to supplying a major transport hub, such facilities should be prioritised concerning their maintenance and protection.

The Ukraine war has shown the importance of the use of drones. And it would not be too far-fetched to see the UK's enemies employing drones to target important assets.

Cyber attacks are already being employed by rogue actors to shutdown computer systems.

In the last year there have been several high profile computer systems failures. Supermarkets have been hit, with Sainsbury's, Tesco and Lidl all affected. Banks were hit with an apparent cyber attack last year seeing payment systems going down and ATMs being put out of use. On the same day even Sky News was forced off the air.

The major global IT outage hit broadcasters, banks and IT companies as well as some airports.

Such outages have often been blamed on system updates rather than deliberate attacks. The July 2024 outage was blamed on an apparently untested update by CrowdStrike cyber security software. The CrowdStrike update caused computers across the globe to crash and display what's commonly referred to as the "blue screen of death."

The catastrophic failure prompted many to speculate that the IT failure was a deliberate attack.

But even if the events of July 2024 was simply a software problem, the events that day highlighted the vulnerability of not only UK infrastructure, but also computer systems around the world [Daily Mail]. 

The CrowdStrike incident is estimated to have cost in excess of $1 billion having affected 8.5 million Microsoft Windows devices, leading to widespread disruptions of airlines, banks, broadcasters, healthcare providers, retail payment terminals, and cash machines globally. Airlines were forced to cancel thousands of flights, supermarkets couldn't accept credit card payments, and hospitals cancelled non-urgent surgeries.

Even putting the CrowdStrike incident aside there have been dozens of actual cyberattacks, often in the form of Ransomware attacks, that have left companies unable to operate [SecureFrame].

Many incidents are reported to be software glitches or blamed on human error. But there is growing suspicion that some cyberattacks are being hidden from the general public in order to allay concerns.

When a huge cargo ship crashed into a bridge in Baltimore resulting in its collapse and closing a major port for weeks, there was widespread speculation as to the cause. Claims ranged from a cyberattack or a ship captain impaired by side effects from COVID-19 vaccines being responsible for the crash [CNN].

All evidence to date points toward a tragic accident. Yet it could just have easily been a deliberate targeting of the vessel. The grounding of the cargo ship Ever Given in the Suez canal in 2021 for just 6 days caused chaos to international shipping, forcing vessels to reroute around South Africa. The cost to the global economy of that incident was in excess of $400 million per hour! [USNI]

When two cargo ships collided in the North Sea in mid March 2025, there were concerns this might have been deliberate. Again, however this has been blamed on probable negligence [BBC / Sky News].

Many cyberattacks go unreported since they affect relatively few individuals, despite their seriousness [CM Alliance].

To suggest such incidents are deliberate cyberattacks or otherwise deliberate assaults by those that might wish to harm the West, is often dismissed as being conspiratorial.

There is growing suspicion amongst the public that the truth is being hidden. It harks to the age old line that just because you're paranoid it doesn't mean you're not being followed.

But even without the tin foil hats and speculation that we are under attack by Russian, Chinese, Iranian or terrorist hackers, the risks are nonetheless real enough.

There are certainly hackers out there wishing to do real ham to the west. But the bigger threat is likely to be more mundane.

Indeed, the Russians may not need to launch cyberattacks and drone attacks to shutdown Britain given the country's crumbling infrastructure. A concerted and deliberate attack would however push Britain to the edge.

But as seen in other outages and serious incidents in the past year or so, it is not just Britain that needs a wake up call. Europe, the US and others all need to focus not only in defending itself from deliberate attacks, but also to prevent major disasters occuring as a result of otherwise minor glitches.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Welcome to the new world order!

"He's a tough negotiator. I'm not sure if I like that, but that's okay," Trump said upon introducing the UK PM Keir Starmer this week [Thursday 27th Feb].

The meeting was summed up by many as a 'success'. However, while there were some positive messages coming from both Trump and Starmer, beneath the shiny veneer it remained unclear whether Trump will prove to be a trusted friend or instead thow Britain under the bus as has been seen before so many times, not just by the Trump administration but also by other US presidents who have continually placed Britain in second place or "at the back of the queue."

What Trump does on Monday could be very different as to what he does the following day or even a week later.

Asked whether he still thought the Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was a dictator just a week after he posted a message on Truth Social lambasting the leader, Trump glibly responded by saying, "Did I say that? I can't believe I said that, Next question."

It's not clear whether it was Starmer's suggestion, or at King Charles' request, that an offer was made for a second state visit. But Starmer's pulling an envelope from his inside jacket pocket gave the impression he was pulling a rabbit from a hat, like a magician, in order to somehow gloss over Trump's lies and half truths while trying to butter up the leader of the free world.

Upon opening the invitation letter for a second state visit, Trump talked of the King as a "a great gentle man, a great, great gentleman; a beautiful man, a wonderful man," and followed by saying that he'd accept the offer.

The "very special" and "historic" offer was very much like a stunt that Del Boy, from Only Fools and Horses, might pull; offering a cheap deal on a paint job for the White House in order to secure a trade deal.

While Trump might initially be impressed with the glitz and glamour of being wined and dined with the King of England, there will be nothing lasting from such a visit other than a photo for the Trump family album.

Reporters attempted to delve into the issues that Trump has himself and put the prime minister on the spot. One asked Starmer whether the King might be concerned over Trump's assertion that Canada might become the 51st state which the PM attempted to gloss over by claiming that other discussions were positive.

"Look, we had a really good discussion, a productive discussion, a good discussion as a result of which our teams are happy to be working together on an economic deal, our teams are going to be working together on security in Ukraine," Starmer responded.

"You mention, Canada, I think you're trying to find a divide between us that doesn't exist. We're the closest of nations, and we had very good discussions today, but we didn't address Canada —" Starmer continued.

"That's enough, thank you" Trump said, waving in the direction of the press to move on to another question.

Then came a meeting with the Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy who met with the US president on Friday.

But there was none of the bromance seen between Macron and Trump on Monday or the slightly awkward but relatively upbeat meeting that the world witnessed as the UK PM met Trump on Thursday.

After a fairly cordial discussion at the start of the informal meeting at the White House it all descended into chaos as both the vice president, J D Vance, and the president, Donald Trump effectively ganged up against Zelenskyy.

Trump told his Ukrainian counterpart to be "thankful" and accused him of "gambling with World War Three". [BBC / Sky News]

After 10 minutes of Trump and Vance haranguing the Ukraine president, the meeting was over and soon after Zelenskyy was asked to leave.

The events came just a week after Zelenskyy said Trump was "living in a disinformation space" created by Russia following Trump's accusation that Zelenskyy was a "dictator".

It seemed more clear than ever that Trump's allegiance was more strongly aligned to Putin. And while there have been voices in support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, there was little condemnation of Donald Trump.

Following the events on Friday, Sir Keir Starmer expressed his "unwavering support for Ukraine" but stopped short of making comment concerning Trump's remarks.

The French president Emmanuel Macron pointed to his continued support for Ukraine. In a post on X [aka Twitter], he said, "There is an aggressor: Russia. There is a victim: Ukraine. We were right to help Ukraine and sanction Russia three years ago—and to keep doing so."                      

"By 'we,' I mean the Americans, the Europeans, the Canadians, the Japanese, and many others," Macron continued, "Thank you to all who have helped and continue to do so. And respect to those who have been fighting since the beginning—because they are fighting for their dignity, their independence, their children, and the security of Europe."

Germany's Friedrich Merz, who won the country's election on Sunday, went further however. "Dear Volodymyr @zelenskyyua, we stand with #Ukraine in good and in testing times. We must never confuse aggressor and victim in this terrible war. (FM)" he posted on X [formerly Twitter].

Starmer, meanwhile, merely expressed his "unwavering support for Ukraine" having spoken to both Trump and Zelenskyy after their fiery Oval Office feud threatened to derail Ukraine peace deal [Daily Mail].

There were many comments showing loyal support however. Hungary's Victor Orban was quoted as saying, "Strong men make peace, weak men make war. Today President Trump stood bravely for peace. Even if it was difficult for many to digest. Thank you, Mr. President!"

Meanwhile, Republican senator Lindsey Graham posted a message saying, "Today, President Trump gave a masterclass on how to stand up for America." 

In a little over five weeks, Trump has managed to implement some 36% of the right wing agenda of Project 2025 according to some trackers. This week has shown that  America is an adversary of Europe, seeking to rob Ukraine of its mineral wealth but hoping to deliver respectability to a war criminal in the Kremlin who has stifled free speech, rigged elections, murdered his opponents, and may yet unleash his army on the Baltic states.

Recently, Bernie Sanders said,  "The struggle against Trump, the struggle against authoritarianism, that is not going to be won here in Capitol Hill. It's going to be won by millions of people all over this country standing up and saying, "you know what, we fought and died for democracy, we're not gonna move toward authoritarianism."" [sic]

But, authoritarianism is not America's future, it is the country's present. A nation captured by Trump, his family, the high priests of tech; simultaneously bankrolling the president, enriching themselves, and now casting Europe and Ukraine to the wind.

Following the dystopian scenes in the White House, Bernie Sanders, one of few voices of protest to emanate from Congress, posted this, " After years of Republicans talking about "freedom," is there ONE Republican in Congress prepared to stand with Ukraine and democracy? Or do they ALL agree with Trump that Vladimir Putin, a blood-thirsty dictator, is our ally in this horrific war that he started."

Welcome to the new world order!

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Chinese spies rattle the British

Anger has boiled over and screams have reached fever pitch in the British media and amongst a number of politicians following revelations that an alleged Chinese spy had formed an "unusual degree of trust" with the Duke of York, Prince Andrew.

Accusations

The man made headlines in early December after being banned from entering the UK and it was subsequently revealed had a close relationship with the disgraced prince.

Initially identified only as H6, the Chinese businessman is also accused of having developed relationships with politicians to be "leveraged" by China.

The Chinese embassy in London has accused some UK parliamentarians of having a "twisted mentality towards China" and that such "anti-China clamours" were an attempt to "smear China, target against the Chinese community in the UK and undermine normal personnel exchanges between China and the UK" [sic]. [Daily Mail / Guardian]

Iain Duncan Smith, who has often criticised China for its human rights abuses, intellectual property theft and espionage, has said he could not understand why people around Prince Andrew were not being checked by the security services.

Growing concerns

 
The naming of the 'spy' had been blocked, despite his name being in the public domain and easily searched in news articles going back many years. Indeed, the man in question was the subject of some controversy as recently as 2020 when the Daily Mail reported that he had gained access to influential establishment figures, including George Osborne and Prince Andrew.

The article claimed the former Chinese government official had founded the Hampton Group, one of a number of Chinese businesses that facilitated "subtly infiltrating areas of influence," according to the then chair of the defence committee in Britain, Tobias Ellwood. "We have to be very worried about how the regime is manipulating Britain's important areas of interest using these kind of tactics.[sic]"

Yang's background

Yang Tengbo [杨腾波] was born in China in 1974. Having graduated with a bachelor's degree in history from the School of History and Archives at Yunnan University in 1995 he went on to join the civil service [Wikipedia]. While Chinese civil servants are not necessarily members of the Chinese Communist Party [CCP], some 95% of civil servants in leading positions from division (county) level and above are CCP members, thus it is likely Yang had by this time secured membership.

He first came to the UK in 2002 and studied in London for a year, before taking a masters degree in public administration and public policy at the University of York.

In 2005 he founded consultancy firm Hampton Group International - one of five companies he has been publicly listed as a director of in the UK. By this time Yang had become an honorary member of the 48 Group Club, a pro-China lobbying group, and a member of the Chinese Communist Party [BBC / Wikipedia].

In the 2020 book "Hidden Hands" published by Australian researchers, the 48 Group Club was accused of acting as a conduit for the Chinese government to "cultivate" senior British businessmen and politicians, and explored China's covert influence around the world. Meanwhile Yang has reportedly had his membership revoked in light of the allegations against him [Botanwang - Chinese]. 

Yang's rise to importance continued following the founding of his consultancy firm. In April 2009, Yang Tengbo was cordially received by President Hu Jintao in London and the following year he was awarded the title of "Top Ten Leaders of the 11th China Era Who Influence China" in Beijing. He later initiated the establishment of the China-UK Entrepreneurs Association which facilitated the landing of "Pitch@Palace", a venture capital platform initiated by Prince Andrew, Duke of York, to China to support young entrepreneurs. It was perhaps this enterprise that established his close links with Prince Andrew and which later raised eyebrows with the British security service [zgcforum - Chinese / Guardian].

Gaining advantage

China's foreign policy should come as no surprise to anyone who understands the country. Ever since China 'opened up' in the 1980s, it has sought to gain advantage wherever it can.

For example China might conveniently ignore some WTO and other international trade rules while taking advantage of others. Many people might for example be unaware that China is able to take advantage of cheap postal rates when shipping items all over the world. These lower postal rates are set by the Universal Postal Union (UPU) treaty for so-called 'developing countries'.

In practice a consumer in the US or Europe can order an item from China including shipping for less than what a local seller or distributor might be able to offer the same product. While China is still developing in many ways, the fact that it is the second largest economy seems to be somewhat incongruous with its being judged to have access to more favourable shipping rates. 

China has feathered its nest in other ways too. By 'investing' in Africa and other places, building roads and other infrastructure, China has secured cheap copper, oil and other important natural resources.

China has long 'welcomed' businesses to invest and create manufacturing bases in China. However, this has come with a hidden cost as many firms find their intellectual property copied or blatantly stolen.

The world has been coaxed by China's cheap manufacturing base to knock out everything from clothes to hi-tech items. But the factories where these items are produced often have a secret output of items which end up on the 'black-market'.

Stolen IP

Those shanzhai or counterfeit items one might buy at 10% of the cost of the real item at a Beijing store, may in fact be the real item. In other cases, the items are an exact copy since the blueprint is simply passed around between enterprises. Most shanzhai products tend to be aimed at the domestic or tourist market and as such may little dent the profits of some firms. Most Chinese people will be unable to afford a real North Face jacket, Chanel bag or Burberry scarf but will be happy to wear the fake. The tourists are happy too, as they go home with a fake 'Rimowa' suitcase, that normally costs in the region of $1,000, having paid less than $50.

Authorities turn a blind eye to such things for several reasons. The first is 'Bread and Circuses'. Keep the people happy. If people are happy in their lives with their designer clothes, watches, suitcases and phones, they are less likely to create problems. Keep the tourists happy. While the draw to China is more than the lure of cheap designer products at Beijing's infamous Silk Market, there won't be many tourists leaving Beijing without at least a couple of 'knock-off' items.

China, has of course used IP theft to bolster its international position too. It is clear that while many people in the West might buy a branded product, there is a shift towards Chinese brands or cheaper Chinese made products that are essentially copies of well known brands.

Data theft and retention

It will be of no surprise that people's data is worth much to companies. Be it your browsing history on your favourite shopping website to purchasing habits at your local supermarket, collected via a loyalty card, such data is a goldmine.

So it is of growing concern that hacking and cyberattacks are becoming more frequent. And many such attacks are emanating from China. In recent weeks AT&T and other telecoms giants in the US have been targeted prompting the FBI to advise consumers not to send text messages [NPR].

Traditional espionage

Information is everything and can give advantage in business deals and securing contracts. Thus, traditional spying also maintains a place in a world of hi-tech espionage.

It is in this world that the likes of Yang Tengbo play a role. His name was revealed following a High Court ruling on the 16th December. His ban from entering the UK is due to his being deemed a national security risk. He is accused of being engaged in "covert and deceptive activity" on behalf of the Chinese state [Politico].

In part this may be true, in as much as any information, private or otherwise, he gleaned from his contacts would have likely been shared with the Chinese state.

Allegiance to the state

Any member of the CCP [the Chinese Communist Party or Zhongguo Gongchandang 中国共产党] is expected to pay allegiance to the state. Moreover, nearly every professional in China is likely to be a member of the CCP.

While membership is usually by invitation only, without being a member of the CCP an individual is less likely to excel in business or gain a promotion within a company.

Thus the assertion that Yang had 'close links to the Chinese government' is in fact true of probably every top Chinese business person, ambassador or official.

Banned

Yang is reported to have been stopped and questioned by police in November 2021 at the UK border under powers to investigate suspicions of "hostile activity" by a foreign state. This followed shortly after a meeting in London with the Chinese Ambassador to the UK Zheng Zeguang, in his role as Executive Chairman of the Chinese Chamber of Commerce in the UK [UKCBA - Chinese]. 

During that stop he surrendered a number of electronic devices including a mobile phone. From what was found on the devices it prompted a decision by the then Home Secretary Suella Braverman to use exceptional powers to ban him from the UK.

Information obtained from the devices, including a letter addressed to Yang from Prince Andrew's adviser Dominic Hampshire, appeared to suggest that Yang had placed himself in a position "to generate relationships between senior Chinese officials and prominent UK figures which could be leveraged for political interference purposes by the Chinese State" [BBC].

This is all likely to be true. Though there is an element of naivety on the part of the press and amongst politicians that Yang is an exception. However there are some lone voices calling out the Chinese. Iain Duncan Smith, a former Conservative party leader and strong critic of the Chinese government, has said the allegations surrounding Yang were "the tip of the iceberg" of Chinese influence in the UK [Guardian]. 

Chris Yang, has described the claims as "ill-founded" while China has repeated it oft repeated line of not meddling in China's internal affairs.

"The UK side must have a right perception of China, see the historical trend clearly, and handle its relations with China on the basis of mutual respect, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit," a spokesperson from the Chinese Embassy in London said in a statement.

Difficult playing fields 

At the heart of it all, China is not only seeking strength in terms of its economic position on the world stage, it is also establishing a position of self-sufficiency should it decide, in the future, to close its doors and end its open door policy. Should that happen, despite all the criticisms of China, the world beyond its borders would find itself in a world of hurt. The global economy would find itself without the necessary rare earths needed for technology, much of the world's manufactured goods and even food, given China supplies a quarter of the world's grain and feeds one-fifth of the world's population. Moreover, China ranks first globally in producing cereals - such as corn, wheat, and rice - fruit, vegetables, meat, poultry, eggs, and fishery products [CFR]. 

It's all very well to criticise China. Many criticisms are of course well founded. But the West has made decisions over the last few decades that has resulted in the erosion of domestic manufacturing and agriculture in favour of a quick economically viable solution by farming industry out to China. Some resources, such as rare earths, do exist outside of China. But the mining operations have, in many cases, been mothballed, partly due to environmental and other considerations. Thus, should China shut its doors, it would take decades for the world to recover its industry, agriculture and restart mining of natural resources.

The West must plan for such eventualities. China plans for years, decades and even centuries ahead. Most western democracies focus only on the short term, planning only from one election cycle to another. Such short-termism will be their undoing if they don't wake up and smell the coffee. At least one doesn't have to rely on China for the morning brew with the likes of Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia and Columbia providing the bulk of the world's coffee beans [Wikipedia]. However, an increasing amount is now being shipped to China as their appetite for coffee grows. Exports of Brazilian coffee to China surged 186.1% in 2024 compared to 2022-2023. So even that's not a safe bet [Xinhua].

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HMS Britain sinking as economy slides

When the new Labour government sought office it promised 'Change' and claimed that it had costed its manifesto pledges whilst dismissing in a number of pre-election debates that it would not raise taxes.

Black holes and expectations

Yet within weeks of winning the 2024 general election the new administration took aim at pensioners by cutting winter fuel payments and warned of a 'painful' budget due to a 'black hole' in the economy which it claimed it had not foreseen and that it had inherited from the previous Tory government.

Since the election Labour repeatedly claimed to have inherited a "£22 billion black hole" from the previous government. But there are suggestions the hole could be even larger with the Guardian pointing to a £100 billion hole and Sky News, prior to the budget, that the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves was looking to find £40 billion to plug public finances.

Whether the figure is as low as £20 billion or as much as £100 billion, it should come as no surprise to anyone that the British economy is failing.

GDP falls again

On Friday 13th December new figures showed the UK economy had declined further in October from the previous month, sinking the pound, and providing a tailwind for a FTSE 100 stacked with international earners

According to the Office for National Statistics, UK gross domestic product fell 0.1% in October from a month prior. In September, GDP had fallen at the same rate. Moreover, the UK economy barely grew between July and September, with uncertainty about the Budget being blamed for the weak growth [BBC / Sky News].

Labour had made boosting economic growth its top priority when it came into power but Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she was "not satisfied" with these latest figures which cover the first three months of the new government.

Following criticism of her fiscal policy Reeves claimed that she had seen little in the way of solutions being put forward.

Elephant in the Room

However there is an elephant in the room that most politicians continue to ignore; that of Brexit.

Whether the majority of the British people voted for it or not, the fact is leaving the EU has decimated the economy. And the cost to each individual, on average, is significant.

A government report published in January this year said that the average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit. Further to this the report said the UK economy was almost £140 billion smaller because of Brexit. According to the new research, the economic damage is only going to get worse – with more than £300 billion set to be wiped off the value of the UK's economy by 2035 if no action is taken, and more than £60 billion wiped off the value of London's economy alone [London gov / Camecon PDF].   

While the report was commissioned by the divisive politician Sadiq Khan and city hall, the otherwise independent report paints a bleak picture.

It also reinforces what is already known.

GDP loss

Estimates of the UK's GDP loss range from 1.2–4.5%. The UK's real Gross Value Added (GVA) in 2023 is around £140 billion less than it would have been if the UK remained in the EU.

Job losses

The UK has 1.8 million fewer jobs than it would have if Brexit had not happened. Moreover the UK is projected to have nearly 3 million fewer jobs post-Brexit by 2035.

Trade decline

UK goods exports to the EU have fallen by 27% since 2021, and imported goods are 32% lower. However, services have performed better than expected, with service exports now outpacing goods exports.

Regional disparities

The economic decline has been most pronounced in England and Scotland, while Northern Ireland has mostly benefited.

Foreign investment

Inward foreign direct investment dropped by 12.3 billion in 2020, the first drop since 2008.

Productivity

The OBR estimates that the UK's productivity could fall by 4% over the long term.

Living standards

Lower productivity usually means slower wage growth and lower living standards.

The list is almost endless.

It's the economy, stupid!

But while hardline Brexiteers may bleat about sovereignty - which was never really lost by being a member of the EU - to quote the US Democratic party strategist James Carville, "It's the economy, stupid!"

Simply put, if the economy is doing well, everything falls into place. If the economy fails it can lead to recession and even revolution.

Britain is unlikely to revolt. But the risk of a deep recession is very real [City AM] .

Of course money needs to be found to deal with the £22 billion deficit, and fund housing, infrastructural projects, the health service, etc.

But taxing a population who are already feeling the pain of Brexit repercussions, as well as the fallout from the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, will not improve matters.

Britain needs to attract investment, which in turn creates jobs. However, foreign investors are dissuaded from investing in the UK, primarily because of Brexit, due to increased red tape which makes exporting products to the EU more difficult logistically, and more expensive.

Tourism

There has been a fall in tourism to the UK since Brexit, especially school exchange trips. While new rules for French school trips were introduced in December 2023 there are concerns these may be affected by more Brexit red tape to come [Guardian].

And while there has been a slight lift in school parties heading to Britain since the former PM Rishi Sunak made a deal with the French last year, things don't always work out as intended. Earlier this month a minor paperwork error left 100 French schoolchildren stranded and forced to head back to their hometown after UK border officials refused entry.

The group of Year 6 students aged 10 and 11, had been eagerly anticipating their five-day trip to the Scottish Highlands. British border officials in Amsterdam refused them entry, citing incorrect information on the France-UK School Trip Travel Information Form, a mandatory document since Brexit for French students travelling to the UK. The error was a trivial one in that the school had mistakenly entered both identity card and passport numbers into the same section of the form, rather than separating them into their designated fields.

The 'jobs-worth' border guards could not be dissuaded by Dutch port officials who attempted to mediate and the students simply had to return to Saint-Winoc college in Bergues in northern France [La Voix du Nord].

The incident was not an isolated one. And while the news made headlines mostly in the French press, it is not good for Anglo-French relations.

Economically it is a disaster. French educational trips alone contributed around £100 million per year to the UK economy before Brexit [Schengen News]. But after Britain left the EU in January 2020 the numbers of trips fell by 60%. Sunak's deal with Macron last year boosted numbers a little but figures show only a 30% lift [Guardian / East Anglia Bylines]. 

Exports

Heading the other way are British exports. Though since Brexit these too have fallen off a cliff. British food sales to the EU have fallen by more than 16% on average across the three years since Brexit, with businesses blaming new border checks.

The report by the Centre of Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) equates the financial figure to being a £2.82 billion a year drop in produce travelling from Britain to the EU [Sky News].

And it gets worse as the EU's General Product Safety Regulation (GPSR) will apply as of 13th December making it a requirement for businesses in third countries to carry out and record safety checks for items they wish to import into the EU bloc. Of course, this comes with a cost as well as yet more paperwork. The result, yet more small businesses giving up exporting from UK PLC [iNews].

There are of course other issues that Brexit has affected; immigration being perhaps one of the most contentious subjects. But economically Brexit has severely damaged the British economy and it's only likely to get worse according to economists [BBC].

BoE criticism

Soon after Rachel Reeves' budget the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bayley made a speech in which he said that Brexit had "weighed" on the economy.

"The changing trading relationship with the EU has weighed on the level of potential supply. The impact on trade seems to be more in goods than services, that is not particularly surprising to my mind. But it underlines why we must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations while respecting the decision of the British people," Bayley said [BBC / Guardian / BoE].  

Bailey was attempting to be diplomatic in stating that the UK should "rebuild relations while respecting the decision of the British people." However, polls are increasingly showing that the British people's position on Brexit has clearly shifted [Guardian]. 

Labour pledges

The new Labour government has dismissed out of hand any notion that Britain should rejoin the EU, the single market or the customs union.

Politically it would be damaging, since the pledge not to rejoin was clearly set out in their manifesto. But at some point the government needs to wake up and smell the coffee before it is too late to turn the boat around.

Rachel Reeves speaks of being "disappointed" concerning figures showing Britain's economic slowdown and merely talks of "hope" that things might improve [Daily Mail]. 

Hopes & Dreams

But futures aren't built on hopes and dreams. Farmers might have hoped for a better harvest this year. Yet inclement weather this year has resulted in the second worst harvest on record. The wheat harvest in England is estimated to be down by 21%, with Britain's wine producers also hit hard. Some harvests are down by between 75% and a third, depending on the region [Guardian].

While this has nothing to do with Brexit, leaving the EU will make replenishing the shortfalls with imported wheat more costly for consumers in the coming months since imports will prove more expensive due to Brexit related red tape.

The economic slump and rising costs is only likely to increase a brain drain. Recent polls indicate that some 23% of UK adults are considering moving abroad in the next five years, with 12% contemplating emigration in the next 12 months [ifammagazine]. 

Such figures are of course speculative. A desire to leave won't necessarily manifest itself in reality since there are practical and financial factors that may thwart such a move.

Nonetheless it is concerning that ever growing numbers of the better educated and qualified are expressing the desire to jump off what might be perceived as a sinking ship, HMS Britain.

Change

So back to that 'black hole'. Should the current government make the decision to rejoin the EU, what would that mean in reality?

There would of course be political repercussions from the hardline Brexit headbangers within the Tory party and Nigel Farage's Reform UK. Such protestations could of course be stemmed by proposing a final binding referendum, now that the British public has seen the fallout from the 2016 Brexit decision.

Negotiations could then be discussed, in lieu of this, with EU counterparts with a proposal to implement article 49, and thus pave the way to Britain's rejoining the bloc.

The mere proposal to rejoin, while upsetting some, would likely increase confidence within business and could bolster investment from abroad if seen as a serious attempt at becoming a key player within Europe once again. This in turn could see deficits reduced and a rebuilding of the economy.

Of course there will be hurdles. And it could take up to ten years before being ratified - though there is a slim chance that this could be sped up if there was agreement on all sides.

A change of direction, rather than the 'make Brexit work' approach - which clearly isn't working, has a far greater potential of bringing back some buoyancy to HMS Britain and help turn the ship around.

Britain may still have some future, but not whilst it is sailing around in a rudderless ship without a clear set course, and from which greater numbers of passengers and crew are fleeing in whatever lifeboats they can find.


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'Pugnacious', 'Rude' & 'Chauvinist' - Prescott dies, age 86

Described as pugnacious and combative, John Prescot, a former deputy prime minister in Tony Blair's Labour administration, has died aged 86. Prescott courted controversy during his tenure once punching a protester who threw an egg during an election campaign walk about. In November 2000 he faced accusations of rudeness towards women after France's environment minister accused him of chauvinism. Mme Voynet said, "Mr Prescott blames me for the failure of the Hague conference and ... adopted a standard macho attitude."

"According to Prescott, a woman is necessarily incompetent and can't physically last the course in such negotiations."

In the commons John Prescott criticised for putting two fingers up at the Conservatives during prime minister's questions in June 2005. At the time the deputy PM dismissed it as a misinterpreted gesture, yet exactly two years prior he was photographed flicking a V-sign at reporters outside No.10 Downing Street.

His rudeness wasn't confined to foreign ministers, the opposition and the press however. He criticised the then home secretary David Blunkett, accusing him of "arrogance" for berating his Cabinet colleagues.

Prescott was nicknamed 'Two Jags" due to having his own Jaguar as well as a ministerial one but was later dubbed Two Jabs after punching a farmer in 2001. This later changed to Two Shags after tabloid newspaper reports emerged of his sexual infidelity with his diary secretary, Tracey Temple, between 2002 and 2004.

The nicknames changed as further revelations and controversy continued. In 2006 he was known as John "no jobs" Prescott and ridiculed for clinging on to his salary, Jags, and grace-and-favour residence whilst his Whitehall super-ministry was scrapped.

Further controversies ensued after he was banned from driving, having been convicted of speeding at 105mph on the M1 in 1991, and banned again after a similar conviction in June 2015, thus earning him the new nickname "Two bans". In the latter case he had been caught by a police speed gun on the A15 at Scampton, in Lincolnshire doing 60mph in a 50mph limit.

Following his death, the current Labour prime minister Keir Starmer described Prescott as a "true giant" of the Labour movement and "a one-off". Former prime minister Gordon Brown described Lord Prescott as a "working class hero" and a "colossus and and titan of the Labour movement".

Prescott was not, in many people's eyes, a hero nor a one off. Accused of sexual assault, the philanderer and brutish thug revelled in his status as deputy PM and the wealth it brought, whilst taking advantage by claiming expenses for house renovations and even two new toilet seats. The nickname 'Two Bogs' did not catch on however.

Sources: BBC / BBC / Guardian / Independent / Mirror / Guardian / BBC / Independent / NBC / Wikipedia

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Fears of a fascist America after Trump landslide

While many - especially those who voted for him - deny that Trump is a fascist, the 47th president elect may potentially follow through with policies that could be considered fascist. Given the rhetoric and speeches he has made, there are many who fear that Trump could turn America into a fascist state.

The least worst scenario is that Trump's presidency will be authoritarian and leaning to the far-right. But there are some who are concerned he may try to establish an authoritarian dictatorship that won't relinquish power after four years.

Trump is likely to surround himself with advisers and generals that are loyal to him. As General Kelly recently stated in a New York Times article, Trump admired Hitler's having loyal generals and staff that carried out his orders without question.

He has also indicated that he has an admiration of leaders that are essentially dictators and even suggested he would like to follow in their footsteps. Of course it could be rhetoric. But it could be a statement of intent.

Scapegoats & enemies within

Hitler is of course known for his disposing of his political enemies and those he considered to be less than human, such as Jews, other ethnic groups, political radicals, such as communists, and homosexuals. These he sent to camps and later exterminated.

Trump has not spelled out an identical policy. However he has indicated that "on day one" he "will begin the largest deportation operation in American history" with use of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798.

Trump has long used disparaging language concerning illegal immigrants, describing them as "rapists" and "drug dealers". In many ways this is little different from the Nazi propaganda of the 1930s that demonised the Jews and enabled Hitler to enact his genocide.

Trump has likened his mass deportation plan to the campaign carried out under President Dwight D Eisenhower in 1954. Known by the ethnic slur "Operation Wetback", hundreds of thousands of people with Mexican ancestry, including some US citizens, were rounded up and deported. Trump's ambition is potentially vastly more draconian. Trump has pledged to expel "maybe as many as 20 million" people from the US.

Trump has claimed that he would use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which allows for summary deportation of non-citizens from a foreign country with which the US is at war. In his rationale, he would use it "to target and dismantle every migrant criminal network operating on American soil".

This policy, which sounds like something from the Nazi playbook, has been labelled "Operation Aurora" and would see the unleashing of "elite squads" of federal law enforcement officers to "hunt down, arrest and deport every last illegal alien gang member until there is not a single one left in this country". He has in addition called for the death penalty for "any migrant" who kills an American.

There will be some that will claim due process and law will prevent human rights breaches. But such policies are not too far removed from those carried out in the 1930s in Germany. Indeed, Trump has said removing undocumented immigrants from the country "will be a bloody story" echoing Adolf Hitler when he said undocumented immigrants were "poisoning the blood of the country" [Guardian].

Political enemies

It is not just immigrants Trump has in his sights. Some observers warn of a 'slide to authoritarianism' as Trump promises to crack down on critics and enact hardline policies.

He has suggested using the United States military against an "enemy from within". So who are these enemies? Trump has not been shy of naming some of them. Specifically, Trump has named current President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Barack Obama, Adam Schiff, senator-elect from California. former US Representative Liz Cheney as well as former House speaker Nancy Pelosi as targets for investigations. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/30/trump-threats-election-enemy-within

While he hasn't said they would be executed or incarcerated, one can only imagine his intentions given his fiery rhetoric. But it isn't just Democrats and political opponents Trump has cited. He has also insinuated coming after reporters, journalists, prosecutors, judges and anyone else who disagrees with him.

The list is extensive but amongst the names are Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, Special Counsel Jack Smith, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, Former Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, Former FBI Director James Comey, Former Assistant District Attorney Mark Pomerantz, Former Trump Attorney Michael Cohen, Capitol Police Lt. Michael Byrd, Rep. Jamaal Bowman, up to 51 intelligence professionals for dismissing Hunter Biden's emails as Russian disinformation as well as Hunter Biden himself.

Most powerful US president

Prior to the election John Kelly, the Trump White House's longest-serving chief of staff,  has warned Trump would rule like a dictator and that he believed that the now 47th president met the definition of a fascist.

Having won the 2024 election Trump is set to become the most powerful person ever to hold the presidential office. Not only will he wield the awesome powers of the American executive, powers that, as conservatives used to complain, have grown over the decades, but he will do so with the fewest constraints of any former president, fewer even than in his own first term.

A court system that could not control Trump as a private individual will have even less control over him as president of the United States. Furthermore he will tip the scales in his favour as he appoints his own attorney general and other top officials at the Justice Department. The one check Congress has on a rogue president, namely, impeachment and conviction, has already proved all but impossible.

While he hasn't directly indicated a desire to be president for life, it is questionable as to whether the 22nd Amendment would be able to block him any more effectively from being president for life than the Supreme Court [Washington Post]. 

But what of a slide to a true dictatorship? Many have dismissed this as fanciful and far-fetched [The Atlantic].   

In the 1920s Italy, and in the 1930s Germany moved towards fascism. Both did so by subverting the democratic system that already existed and changed things over time in order to consolidate and establish absolute power over the state.

In simple terms Mussolini used intimidation tactics against voters, resulting in a landslide victory and a subsequent two-thirds majority in the 1924 election.  In the case of Hitler, he became the chancellor of Germany in 1933 following a series of electoral victories by the Nazi Party and soon after passed laws, such as the Enabling Act, allowing him to carry out his plans.

America has long considered itself the bastion of freedom and democracy. However, there have been concerns over the last century as to whether it too could become an authoritarian state.

Dorothy Thompson, a pioneering journalist who observed European fascism in the 1930s firsthand, began reporting on how far-right groups in the United States were aligning under a distorted patriotism, weaponizing democratic freedoms to further authoritarianism.

She warned that American fascism would always present itself as "true Americanism". In 1936, Thompson published a column titled "It Can Happen Here".

"Whom do they hate?" she asked. "Life, which has treated them badly. Who is to blame? Some scapegoat is to blame." These groups were determined "to exterminate anarchists, communists, Catholics, Negroes, and Jews; to restrict immigration and deport all undesirable aliens; to support and participate in lynch law; to arm its members for civil war… and eventually to establish a dictatorship in America." [New Statesman]

Parallels

At Trump's Madison Square Garden event, speakers called Puerto Ricans "garbage", insulted black Americans, Palestinians and Jewish people, and labelled Harris the "Antichrist". Elon Musk attended wearing a black MAGA hat evocative of Fraktur, a font popular with Nazi Germany, while Stephen Miller quoted one of the KKK's 1920s slogans, declaring that "America is for Americans only". The Trump campaign also reportedly played a verse of "Dixie", the popular anthem of the slaveholding Confederacy.

Some observers have also noted the parallels between the 1939 Nazi rally at the same location and the 2024 rally. Thompson, who attended the 1939 rally, observed that Sinclair Lewis's novel "It Can't Happen Here" had foreseen it "almost exactly", including the "Storm Troopers" poised to suppress "unruly elements".

The novel, published in 1935 describes the rise of Berzelius "Buzz" Windrip, a demagogue who is elected President of the United States, after fomenting fear and promising drastic economic and social reforms while promoting a return to patriotism and "traditional" values. After his election, Windrip takes complete control of the government via self-coup and imposes totalitarian rule with the help of a ruthless paramilitary force.

The last election

The 2024 election presented a choice between two visions of America. One offered the continuation of the nation's painful journey toward a pluralistic, multiracial democracy. The other choice which has seemingly been chosen by a huge proportion of the American people looks towards a "herrenvolk democracy" where democratic rights are restricted to the "master race".

Whilst Trump represents, for many, someone that is unhinged and makes crazy remarks concerning Haitians eating cats and dogs, for a large proportion of mainly white Americans who voted for him, Harris represented a direct challenge to a nostalgic view of power as the exclusive domain of white Christian men.

Many callers to UK radio shows on Wednesday suggested that Americans, especially men, weren't ready for a woman president. This is likely true. But her ethnic roots probably posed as much a barrier, especially amongst the red blooded white male Trump voter.

Born in California to Jamaican and Indian immigrant parents, Harris embodies the plural democracy Trump seeks to erase, but currently he only singles out the illegal immigrants - who happen not to be white.

Why has America chosen a 'fascist' over a moderate democrat? One black Harris voter speaking to the UK's Channel 4 News soon after the results came in, alluded to the sexist and racial divide. Asked why America did not vote for Kamala Harris, the voter told Washington Correspondent Siobhan Kennedy, "Number one, she's a woman. Secondly she's a black woman. America, still, is dealing with racial inequalities. So we're a split country right now, and that's the sad thing about it. We need to unify."

Both Mussolini and Hitler drew support for promising economic stability. And Trump's success has been as much to do with his economic policies as his showmanship.

Harris's stance on abortion and attempt to paint Trump as a fascist in waiting failed to pay off. Instead, Americans were drawn to the populism of Trump.

Seizing power

While Trump, like Mussolini and Hitler, has promised to fix the economy and bring back wealth for Americans, much of his stated game plan appears to be one of using an iron fist to implement his policies.

Some believe the US constitution will prevent him from over exerting his power. While he has spoken of using the military to seek out his enemies and immigrants, the constitution does indeed prevent him from doing this. However he does have authority over the national guard. And who is to say the ranks might not be bolstered in order to maintain his position of power.

Even in American history there have been authoritarian policies enacted and carried out. Prohibition and McCarthyism are just two examples where the state has sought to clampdown on Americans, be it their social enjoyment - that of drinking alcohol - or their perceived political views.   

Fascism and authoritarianism doesn't happen overnight. If Trump does intend to establish such a state it will be incremental. Authority over the national guard will at first be seen as 'necessary' to round up 'illegal immigrants'. 'Detainment camps' may be 'needed' to process such people. McCarthyism is a blueprint which could be strengthened to deal with the 'enemies within'.

Many people dismiss the concerns of America becoming a fascist state. Just because Trump and his cohorts don't wear fascist symbols or swastikas, does not make them any less dangerous.

Many novels that warn of a rise of fascism often use such symbols. The Man In The High Castle, a 1963 Philip K Dick novel which imagined a world in which Germany and Japan won the second world war, was heavily saturated in such motifs as was the Amazon Prime TV production that hit screens at the beginning of Trump's first presidency [Guardian]. 

It is unlikely that future totalitarian regimes will adopt symbols from previous movements as often depicted in dystopian fiction. Trumpism already has its own slogans and symbols. It has "Make America Great Again" and "Fight, Fight, Fight" - which became a rallying call after Trump's 'miraculous' escape from an assassin's bullet. It has 'MAGA' and the red baseball cap as well as the American flag.

The author Michael Rosen echoes what many others have said, "I sometimes fear that people think that fascism arrives in fancy dress, worn by grotesques and monsters
as played out in endless re-runs of the Nazis. Fascism arrives as your friend. It will restore your honour, make you feel proud, protect your house, give you a job, clean up the neighbourhood, remind you of how great you once were, clear out the venal and the corrupt, remove anything you feel is unlike you… It doesn't walk in saying, "Our programme means militias, mass imprisonments, transportations, war and persecution."

However in Trump's case he has, in part, warned of some of that [PBS].

tvnewswatch, London, UK