Saturday, April 26, 2025

Egg prices may hurt, but H5N1 pandemic could break the economy

Trump's trade policy with tariffs will likely hit American consumers hard over the coming months as imported goods - especially from the likes of China - are hit with punitive tariffs that for some items will see prices more than double.

And while some groceries may also increase there has been a particular focus, by much of the media, on the cost of eggs with comedians egging it up with jokes about the cost of a Denver omelette.

Eggs have risen considerably in the US and stand at $6 per dozen, an almost tripling of prices from the year before. That is about £4.50 in UK prices where a dozen eggs is about £3.00 on average.

But while many have pointed to Trump's economic policies concerning the rise in the price of eggs, the cost for consumers has risen steadily over the past year mostly due to the fallout of bird flu.

Similar issues have affected UK and EU egg production though most eggs are free range across the EU.

In 2022, a substantial portion of eggs produced in the UK were from free-range systems, accounting for 65% of the total. While barn systems made up 7%, and battery cages produced 28%. In the EU, a significant shift towards cage-free systems is underway, with a goal of phasing out all cage systems by 2025.

In the US only 40% of hens used for eggs in the US are now cage-free. The vast majority of avian flu outbreaks have been on factory farms where hundreds of thousands or sometimes millions of egg-laying hens are caged in close proximity, creating ideal conditions for the rapid spread of infectious diseases.

Bird flu has wiped out more than 30 million chickens so far this year in the US.  And since the virus began spreading through commercial flocks in early 2022 more than 166 million poultry have been culled.

High-pathogenicity avian influenza subtype H5N1 is now present throughout the US, and possibly beyond. More cattle infections have elevated the risk of the virus evolving the capacity to transmit between humans, potentially with high fatality rates [Independent / Science].

Research has shown that the spill over to cattle likely occurred as long ago as 2003 and has since been transmitted to various other species, including raccoons and cats as well as poultry [Gavi].

The jump to cats has brought further concerns. Most people have little contact with chickens or other birds. But in the United States, approximately 32.1% of households own at least one cat.

Anyone who has a cat will be aware that their instinct is to hunt, be it rodents or indeed birds. But while the risk of catching and transmitting bird flu to humans is small, some experts and veterinary specialists have advised keeping cats indoors.

Dr. Michael Q. Bailey, president-elect of the American Veterinary Medical Association, speaking on Fox 5 Atlanta last year was suggesting pet owners watch out for symptoms and proactively prevent their cat from contracting the disease by keeping them inside, avoid feeding them raw meat and unpasteurised milk products.

But what's all this got to do with the price of eggs?

Simply put, the culling of chickens and the cost of dealing with the disease has hit the cost of production as well as creating a shortage of eggs.

That in turn has caused the price to increase. Bird flu outbreaks have significantly impacted egg prices in the UK and the US, leading to a surge in costs for consumers. In the UK, some egg prices have risen by as much as 20%. In the US, the average price for a dozen eggs reached $5 in January 2025, a 53% increase from 2024, with the USDA anticipating further price increases [Guardian].

But the real threat is not a hit to people's finances and the threat to farming, but the risk to human health.

So far 70 human cases have been confirmed in the US. One person has died and another three have required hospital treatment. Almost 1,000 cattle herds have been infected, and the virus has been detected in poultry in almost every single US territory.

The alarm bells may not be ringing quite yet. But having just emerged from a deadly pandemic that killed more than 7 million people and devastated the global economy, the world should already be preparing for the possibility that H5N1 could become the next pandemic [CEPI].

"Pandemic preparedness initiatives should be urgently resourced and implemented," CEPI's Executive Director for Preparedness and Response Dr Nicole Lurie and six other experts said of the bird flu virus. "Enhancing readiness now can save lives and reduce societal and economic disruption if H5N1 or another outbreak becomes a pandemic."

If H5N1 does mutate into a deadly strain, the cost of a dozen eggs will be the last thing on people's minds [Morning Star].

tvnewswatch, London, UK

No comments: