Damp start to election campaign

The election campaign started off as a rather damp squib with Rishi Sunak's soggy announcement as he was drenched by rain and drowned out by D.Ream's 'Things can only get better'.

But one week in and it's been a rather damp start to a six week campaign.

The Lib Dems have focused on the state of Britain's water supply and the literally shitty state that water companies have left the waterways, rivers and seas in.

Tim Faron, a former Lib Dem leader, told BBC Radio 4 they would radically overhaul the UK's water industry.

Meanwhile the current leader Sir Ed Davey conducted a bizarre interview with Sky News while perched on a waterboard in order to highlight similar issues, although the message was somewhat lost as one was focused on whether Sir Ed would end up as wet as Rishi Sunak last week.

The Tories meanwhile have hardly capitalised on putting out their message. The only major policy raised since last week has been a call to arms with the suggestion they would reintroduce National Service.

After only two days of campaigning Rishi Sunak took the weekend off [Guardian]. Meanwhile other MPs apparently resigned to the fact that the Tories are a busted flush have gone on holiday.

Hard man Brexit Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, has been accused of giving up after jetting off to Greece instead of campaigning in his marginal constituency.

Baker defended his decision not to cancel his holiday plans, stating, "The Prime Minister told everyone we could go on holiday and then called a snap election. So I've chosen to do my campaign work in Greece." [Mirror]

Starmer launched his election campaign on the back of the simple slogan 'Change'. Yet this has been capitalised upon by Labour's political opponents pointing out just how much Starmer himself has changed and that what one wants in a potential PM is stability.

One case in point is Brexit on which Starmer has flip-flopped from a remain position through a people's vote position and now a 'make Brexit work' position.

On the fifth day of campaigning he said there was "No case" for going back into the EU.

Sir Keir Starmer was at an Airbus factory in Hertfordshire fielded questions from the public and reporters.

Speaking to the latter, he was asked whether a Labour government would review freedom of movement with the EU.

"We haven't got it any more, and we're not going back," he said. "There is no case for saying we go back into the EU."

He referred to the outcome of the 2016 referendum, despite having later campaigned for a second one.

But Sir Keir said he thinks "we can get a better deal" with the bloc.

He called for a "closer relationship", especially on trade and defence.

However, the EU as late as last June said the Brexit deal cannot be renegotiated with a new PM.

Whilst there would be a review of the deal Britain left with, the European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic has said the EU would likely look at it in 2026 and warned that it would only cover the "implementation" of the deal rather than wholesale changes. Sefcovic also said customs checks at the border would likely remain but stressed the TCA had not been used to its "full potential" [iNews].

This would be a blow to any party that made a claim to renegotiate issues that have seriously affected trade and movement of goods. The tailbacks of lorries at Dover and stacking of lorries on the M20, as part of Operation Brock, is now so commonplace that it's rarely even reported anymore. In fact the tailbacks at Dover are almost daily and are further exacerbated during busy holiday periods when Britons seek to head to the continent for a vacation.

Indeed this Bank Holiday weekend saw massive delays at the port of Dover with motorists stuck in queues for up to five hours. The situation has become normal in Brexit Britain and barely got a mention in the papers though the BBC website did highlight the issue [BBC]. There have been calls for a review into the problems [BBC]. But everyone knows it primarily comes down to Brexit.

There are however only three parties that have even promoted the idea of moving closer to rejoining the EU, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and the SNP, although the Lib Dems are a little reluctant to mention the subject [Politico].

Election coverage has also been extremely sparse. In particular, TV news coverage of election campaigning has in places almost been non-existent.

On Wednesday one might have blinked and missed Rishi Sunak's visit to Penzance in Cornwall. It was unclear from the brief clip shown of Sir Ed Davey on the BBC where the Lib Dems were even campaigning. And as for Labour, Starmer had seemingly disappeared as a row over Diane Abbott grew.

Elected as Britain's first black female MP in 1987 she has in the last few months become a thorn in Labour's side.

Abbott was suspended from the party in 2023 after suggesting Jewish people do not face racism and her comments were deemed anti-semitic by the Labour leader [BBC].

Just over five weeks out from the general election, she had the whip restored to her, paving the way for the veteran MP to run for Labour again in her Hackney North constituency.

However, reports quickly emerged that she had been barred from standing in July's election. Sir Keir Starmer denied this was the case, saying, "No decision has been taken to bar her going forward."

Yet Abbott was out on the street saying she would stay on as an MP for "as long as it is possible".

Confusion over Abbott's being allowed to stand appears to stem from an unknown Labour source who briefed journalists that Abbott would be barred from standing again in her Hackney North and Stoke Newington constituency despite the whip having been returned to her.

Starmer meanwhile has not been seen resulting in an almost Where's Wally moment for the Labour leader.

This is certainly not a good moment for Labour in what is a relatively short election campaign.

Most people have likely made up their minds - if the polls are to be believed - though there will be many floating voters out there.

Yet none of the parties has yet released their party manifesto.

Last week's election launch ran with headlines of Things can only get wetter. Given the rather wet election campaign thus far, this was rather apt.

[pictured - election parody posters]

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Rats leave sinking ship as UK election set for 4th July

Following Rishi Sunak's ill-advised calling of an early election, two more MPs have thrown in the towel. Michael Gove has said he won't stand for his seat in Surrey Heath, and Andrea Leadsom has also stood back from standing in South Northamptonshire.

The Conservative party has more than 150 seats, and rising, with no candidate. That is a lot of candidates for CCHQ to find before 7th June and a lot of wasted campaigning days. It does rather indicate Sunak called the election before his party was ready. Seventy eight have stood down with Gove and Leadsom being the latest. And some political pundits expect more to leap off the ship this weekend.

There appears to be much underlying anger within the party that Sunak made an almost unilateral decision to call a summer election without, apparently, even informing his cabinet [BBC / Economic Times]. Whilst this is speculation, the fact that his Foreign Secretary David Cameron had to cut short his visit to Albania and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps had to shelve a planned foreign visit reinforces this theory.

Many people in the party thought they had until Autumn to decide their position. With Sunak's early and unexpected election announcement, they are now feeling the party is over.

The election launch was not helped by Sunak's apparent impulsive decision to call it on Wednesday, the only day when veteran anti-Brexit protester Steve Bray and his supporters is in London with his loud speaker blasting sounds of satirical tunes in the direction of No.10.

Sunak would have known this as he left for PMQs at 11:30. He should also have been aware that the weather forecast was for continual rain throughout the day.

But just as King Canute couldn't hold back the tide, Sunak could not stop the heavens from opening up and carried on regardless. Shortly after five p.m. he went outside to deliver a nearly ten minute dialogue whilst being drenched by rain and blasted by the sounds of the 1997 Labour theme, Things Can Only Get Better by D.Ream, from Steve Bray's speaker at the end of the street.

It was already raining as the PM stepped towards the lectern. But as he continued through his speech the rain increased and by the end his suit was completely ruined and soaked - no doubt it was consigned to the dustbin shortly afterwards.

It wasn't perhaps surprising that many headlines in the papers the following day focused on the weather.

References to a damp squib were made while the Telegraph referenced the D.Ream song with 'Things Can Only Get Wetter'.

The Daily Mirror meanwhile went with a prediction of Drown & Out.

The more serious headlines still thought his election launch was ill-advised.

Many thought it was a 'gamble' and that Sunak had 'bet the house'.

Labour might think they've got it all sewn up. But complacency is not advised in Britain's divided post-Brexit society, still in turmoil as it endures a cost of living crisis.

Labour, at least according to polls, are likely to take the keys to No.10 as it sits some 20 points ahead of the Tories

But while the Conservatives will lose votes many traditional Tory voters may shift to the centrist Lib Dems or the more right leaning Reform Party. Indeed both parties are particularly focused on campaigning in Tory constituencies.

Wales might see a shift away from Labour especially after anti-motorist policies and growing dissatisfaction in the Labour administration in the Welsh parliament. Plaid Cymru could do a lot better than usual.

Scotland could win something back for Labour after problems the SNP has suffered with internal squabbles and scandals.

There is also a question concerning turnout with concerns from all sides it could be as low as 60%.

There is also concern amongst many traditional Labour voters who see Starmer as being little different from the Tories.

A cartoon published just one week before the election announcement in the Evening Standard alluded to just this with Starmer complaining a portrait of him with a red background wasn't blue enough. There is also the issue surrounding Gaza, which has proved contentious as Starmer holds with Israel's right to defend itself and won't concede to far left demands to call for a ceasefire in the region.

At the end of it all there are only two certainties. One, that there'll be a change of government. But, two, nothing will really change.

The country remains politically divided. Moreover, it is arguably bankrupt which will leave a new Labour administration in a difficult position to do anything to solve Britain's many problems.

Sunak has pointed to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine as well as rising energy prices as being challenges that Britain has faced and something that any government in power would have faced. This is partially true. But the elephant in the room which he has consistently ignored is Brexit which has seriously affected Britain's economic position.

Labour too has also ignored the B-word and failed to discuss how the country might improve trade with Europe post-Brexit.

Only the Lib Dems have suggested they wish to realign and build a closer relationship with the EU and rejoin the single market and customs union. Whilst not mentioning the subject of rejoining, it is in fact code for doing just that. Remember the 4 pillars? The cornerstones of the single market are often said to be the "four freedoms" – the free movement of people, goods, services and capital. These freedoms are embedded in the European Union's treaties and form the basis of the Single Market legislative framework.

The UK is still perhaps a long way off of rejoining the EU unless the5re is a major see-change in people's thinking and a huge swing towards the Lib Dems. But a Labour-Lib Dem coalition, the most likely outcome of this election, is perhaps a small step to Britain's rejoining the bloc and rebuilding its place in the world.

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