Iberian power outage should be a wake up call

Electrical supplies have returned to much of Spain and Portugal after a power outage effectively sent much of the two countries back to the stone age.

According to the two major power companies, Red Eléctrica de España and Ren in Portugal, 99% of the electrical grid was back up and running early Tuesday [29th April].

The cause for the blackout has yet to be established. Ren, the Portuguese supplier, pointed to a "rare atmospheric phenomenon" while the Spanish PM said the cause was yet to be established. "This has never happened before," said Pedro Sánchez.  "And what caused it is something that the experts have not yet established — but they will."

"No hypothesis has been rejected, and every possible cause is being investigated," Sánchez said during a national broadcast late Monday afternoon.

Many people would not hear that message since much of the country was without power for more than 10 hours with many not seeing power restored for up to 19 hours.

A powercut is not unusual for anyone. Local substations or electrical faults are not uncommon in many western countries. But such a widespread outage is almost unprecedented.

For those on the ground it took a while to sink in that the problem went beyond their local area.

"I was in Murcia, Spain, in the middle of a Zoom work call when plash [sic], the power went out. Well, that's not so rare," one Twitter use later posted as power was restored. It was only when he attempted to communicate with others that he realised the problem went beyond his small enclave in southeastern Spain.

Friends in Málaga some 400 km away were also affected. "But it can't have gone out everywhere in the country, right?" Javi exclaimed on his Twitter/X post.

It suddenly seemed as though he was in an episode of Black Mirror, a dystopian television series that features a futuristic world where technology backfires and targets its creators.

This wasn't the future though. This was the 21st century where everything is interconnected and wired together with electricity.

It soon dawned on Javi and millions of others across the continent that there was no electricity and that without it everyday life would soon be entirely disrupted. There were perhaps others who were suddenly reminded of the 1950s science fiction film The Day the Earth Stood Still [Twitter/X].

In the major cities passengers found themselves trapped on stationary subway trains whilst others came to a halt in elevators. The numbers of those finding themselves in such a predicament has yet to be established but it likely ran into thousands across the country. For some it could have been hours. Unable to make an emergency call as the mobile networks gradually failed, some may have been trapped for many hours.

High speed trains across the country also ground to a halt. Passengers were forced to disembark as the air conditioning in the trains failed and they sought relative comfort in the blazing spring sunshine with temperatures topping 25°C.

The Civil Guard were soon being dispatched to these stranded trains to distribute water and help rescue a number of individuals needing medical attention [Twitter/X].

Locals near to the small town of Brazatortas came to hand out water to passengers of a stranded Madrid–Seville high-speed train that had come to a halt half way along its 472 km journey [Twitter/X]. 

Back in the major cities motorists were feeling the impact as traffic lights failed causing chaos on the roads. "The most amazing part is that there were no major accidents," Javi said, though his vision of what was going across the country was somewhat blinkered.

There were some people posting images to social media in the first hour or so after the power outage began. But soon even the mobile networks failed leaving everyone in the dark.

Not only were people without electricity, but also water since supplies rely on electricity to pump it to people's homes.

"Mobile data started to work only sporadically, and calls began to collapse until they completely stopped working. In fact, as the hours passed, it went from 'mobile data works a bit' to 'nothing at all'," Javi wrote on a social media post.

With the mobile networks down, Internet inaccessible and TV unavailable, some reached for their radio. But in this modern world many access radio via the Internet using smart speakers.

Battery powered and wind-up radios were now hot items being bought up at supermarkets which were now being stripped of essential supplies. Within hours bottled water, canned food and toilet paper had all been emptied from stores by those fortunate to have cash after card payments went down along with ATMs. 

"A whole army of doomsday preppers rushed to the supermarkets to buy toilet paper, water jugs, and dog food. Pandemic 2.0," Javi observed.

Meanwhile the sounds of sirens broke the silence as ambulances and emergency personnel responded to those trapped in lifts and stationary underground trains. Hospitals reportedly coped with back up supplies though it is probable that non-emergency procedures were cancelled or postponed.

By late afternoon many people were resigned to the fact that there was little to do other than enjoy an extended siesta, their only concern being that beer still on sale at the remaining open bars was getting warmer as the refrigerators, along with everything else, had failed.

Streets and promenades in many towns and cities were now packed with people walking, chatting about the situation, complaining about not having Internet, walking their dogs, sunbathing, and drinking beers at the bars nonstop!

Restaurants and supermarkets were now facing other challenges as they were forced to dispose of perishable items from raw fish and meat to ice cream as their refrigeration failed after backup power supplies also failed.

Those having made it home now faced issues concerning cooking their evening meal. While some reached for the bread and cheese, others improvised, attempting to cook using a number of candles in a saucepan to provide heat to a frying pan [Twitter/X].

But across the country others were stranded. Motorists found themselves unable to fill up at petrol stations since the pumps were reliant on electricity. Meanwhile electric vehicles were also caught short since car charges were also without power.

Others were meanwhile stranded at airports as flights were cancelled with many passengers forced to sleep on airport floors as hotels were overwhelmed with an influx of people. The situation was compounded as they could only accept cash and were forced to turn people away.

By early evening power had been restored to around a fifth of the country. But for many people were still without electricity and were reliant on candles for lighting.

In the morning, power had been restored to most people across both Portugal and Spain, though for some charging their electric vehicle or boiling a kettle for their morning brew was still proving difficult with some resorting once again to candlepower to get their caffeine fix.

For a few who lived through the 28th April blackout it was a novelty, the biggest frustration being expressed by some was their inability to access the Internet.

Others however found themselves in far more difficult or even life threatening situations. It could of course have been much worse.

Those stranded after high-speed trains came to a halt were fortunate to be provided water by emergency services and local residents. But should this have been at the height of summer when temperatures in Spain and Portugal reach up to 40°C, there could well have been fatalities.

As to the cause many have speculated - especially on social media - that the outage was caused by a cyberattack. While the national cybersecurity institute was investigating the possibility of a cyberattack, António Costa, the European Council president and a former Portuguese prime minister, said there were "no indications of any cyberattack" whilst Spain's Teresa Ribera, a European Commission vice-president, said there was no evidence the incident was deliberate [Guardian].

Other suggestions, much touted by media outlets opposed to the so-called Net-Zero agenda, have alluded to the outage being caused by heavy reliance on solar and wind farms [Daily Telegraph].

The outage was initially attributed, by the Portuguese operator REN, to a rare atmospheric phenomenon called "induced atmospheric vibration". This phenomenon, caused by extreme temperature variations, led to anomalous oscillations in very high-voltage lines, potentially disrupting the synchronisation of the interconnected power grids.

The actual reason may not be known for some time. But the outage does raise alarm bells for all of us. Only a few weeks ago the European Commission was accused by the far-right of sowing fear, after its presentation of the resilience kit which aims to provide self-sufficiency in case of crisis [Euronews].   

The suggested items in the emergency kit included photocopies of identification documents, cash, a radio with batteries, a charger and a phone battery, a flashlight, matches and a lighter in case of power failure, a first aid kit, water, food, and board games to pass the time.

The emergency kit was, for many, seen as a response to a potential Russian threat. However the power outage seen in Spain, Portugal, as well as parts of France and Andorra, should be a wake up call for anyone who isn't already prepped.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Power outage hits much of Spain and Portugal

Major areas in Spain and Portugal are without electricity as the grid fails.

Every single part of digital life from shops, to traffic lights, hospitals, airports, phones, have all reported to be hit.

Some residents have managed to get messages out using the internet and the mobile phone system though even parts of that are said to have experienced problems.

Reports of long queues at cash points have been seen as card payments are not working in retail outlets.

The mayor of Madrid has asked people to keep their movements to a minimum, saying, "I ask all residents of Madrid to keep their movements to an absolute minimum and, if at all possible, to remain where they are. We want to keep all roads clear."

With the outage affecting subway trains many passengers are said to still be trapped, several hours after the power went out shortly after 11:00 a.m. local time in Portugal, midday in Spain.

Main railways have also been affected with  trains coming to a halt and bewildered passengers seen disembarking in remote locations.

Air traffic in Spain and Portugal is also being impacted by widespread electrical outages affecting both countries though it is unclear at present whether flights are being diverted. Lisbon's main airport is shut and several flights have been cancelled according to one stranded passenger Joseph Henshaw who spoke to Sky News using a sketchy cellphone service.

There are unconfirmed reports that parts of southern France and Andorra have also been affected.

Further unconfirmed reports on social media have said that the power outage across Spain has triggered chaos in supermarkets, with some stores closing to prevent looting, and long queues forming at those still open as panicked shoppers rush to stock up on supplies.

Meanwhile the Spanish power operator has said power is unlikely to be restored for up to 10 hours with some estimates being as long as a week.

As to the cause, speculation is rife on social media that it was a cyberattack. Power companies, including Spanish power grid operator Red Electrica, have said that a rare environmental phenomenon due to extreme temperature variations caused the outage. 

A heat burst, a rare environmental phenomenon characterised by sudden and extreme temperature changes, could be a potential cause for an outage. Heat bursts, which can occur during the late spring and summer, are often accompanied by strong winds and a sharp decrease in humidity, all of which could disrupt power lines or equipment. Additionally, extreme heat can lead to increased demand for electricity, potentially straining the power grid and contributing to outages.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Egg prices may hurt, but H5N1 pandemic could break the economy

Trump's trade policy with tariffs will likely hit American consumers hard over the coming months as imported goods - especially from the likes of China - are hit with punitive tariffs that for some items will see prices more than double.

And while some groceries may also increase there has been a particular focus, by much of the media, on the cost of eggs with comedians egging it up with jokes about the cost of a Denver omelette.

Eggs have risen considerably in the US and stand at $6 per dozen, an almost tripling of prices from the year before. That is about £4.50 in UK prices where a dozen eggs is about £3.00 on average.

But while many have pointed to Trump's economic policies concerning the rise in the price of eggs, the cost for consumers has risen steadily over the past year mostly due to the fallout of bird flu.

Similar issues have affected UK and EU egg production though most eggs are free range across the EU.

In 2022, a substantial portion of eggs produced in the UK were from free-range systems, accounting for 65% of the total. While barn systems made up 7%, and battery cages produced 28%. In the EU, a significant shift towards cage-free systems is underway, with a goal of phasing out all cage systems by 2025.

In the US only 40% of hens used for eggs in the US are now cage-free. The vast majority of avian flu outbreaks have been on factory farms where hundreds of thousands or sometimes millions of egg-laying hens are caged in close proximity, creating ideal conditions for the rapid spread of infectious diseases.

Bird flu has wiped out more than 30 million chickens so far this year in the US.  And since the virus began spreading through commercial flocks in early 2022 more than 166 million poultry have been culled.

High-pathogenicity avian influenza subtype H5N1 is now present throughout the US, and possibly beyond. More cattle infections have elevated the risk of the virus evolving the capacity to transmit between humans, potentially with high fatality rates [Independent / Science].

Research has shown that the spill over to cattle likely occurred as long ago as 2003 and has since been transmitted to various other species, including raccoons and cats as well as poultry [Gavi].

The jump to cats has brought further concerns. Most people have little contact with chickens or other birds. But in the United States, approximately 32.1% of households own at least one cat.

Anyone who has a cat will be aware that their instinct is to hunt, be it rodents or indeed birds. But while the risk of catching and transmitting bird flu to humans is small, some experts and veterinary specialists have advised keeping cats indoors.

Dr. Michael Q. Bailey, president-elect of the American Veterinary Medical Association, speaking on Fox 5 Atlanta last year was suggesting pet owners watch out for symptoms and proactively prevent their cat from contracting the disease by keeping them inside, avoid feeding them raw meat and unpasteurised milk products.

But what's all this got to do with the price of eggs?

Simply put, the culling of chickens and the cost of dealing with the disease has hit the cost of production as well as creating a shortage of eggs.

That in turn has caused the price to increase. Bird flu outbreaks have significantly impacted egg prices in the UK and the US, leading to a surge in costs for consumers. In the UK, some egg prices have risen by as much as 20%. In the US, the average price for a dozen eggs reached $5 in January 2025, a 53% increase from 2024, with the USDA anticipating further price increases [Guardian].

But the real threat is not a hit to people's finances and the threat to farming, but the risk to human health.

So far 70 human cases have been confirmed in the US. One person has died and another three have required hospital treatment. Almost 1,000 cattle herds have been infected, and the virus has been detected in poultry in almost every single US territory.

The alarm bells may not be ringing quite yet. But having just emerged from a deadly pandemic that killed more than 7 million people and devastated the global economy, the world should already be preparing for the possibility that H5N1 could become the next pandemic [CEPI].

"Pandemic preparedness initiatives should be urgently resourced and implemented," CEPI's Executive Director for Preparedness and Response Dr Nicole Lurie and six other experts said of the bird flu virus. "Enhancing readiness now can save lives and reduce societal and economic disruption if H5N1 or another outbreak becomes a pandemic."

If H5N1 does mutate into a deadly strain, the cost of a dozen eggs will be the last thing on people's minds [Morning Star].

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Meloni achieves little in naive attempt to sway Trump

Meloni's meeting with Trump triggered varied responses. The Spectator suggested her mission to "make the West great again" would infuriate Macron. Sky News meanwhile pointed to her playing the 'role of political peacekeeper'. However, while many news outlets attempted to elevate her visit to one of diplomacy and soothing words in order to win over the US president, Le Monde noted that she ended up without anything to show for her visit. 

During the meeting Meloni offered Trump a visit to Rome, though there wasn't a sweetener with the meeting of a monarch which the UK PM Starmer attempted a few weeks previously. Italy is no longer a monarchy and it wasn't perhaps the best idea to suggest a meeting with the ailing pope.

The announcement of the visit to Italy was by way of an attempt to kick start negotiations with the EU and come to a deal in order to mitigate US tariffs. The invite did not spark Trump's enthusiasm, nor did he even begin to confirm the trip.

There was some sense of comradery with Giorgia Meloni being warmly welcomed by Trump who called her a "great prime minister" and said she had "taken Europe by storm".

Some cynical observers might suggest this was more about her being a woman and Trump was showing his misogynistic colours as he fawned over the 48 year old blonde as she arrived at the White House in a dazzling white trouser suit.

There was some awkward body language on display however. Meloni sat cross-legged throughout the meeting, her hand folded gripping a pen with a notepad on her lap. At times her foot folded behind her grounded leg pointing to even more awkwardness or defensiveness as Trump watched her intently all the while.

There were further awkward moments. After Trump suggested they take questions from reporters Meloni practically leapt from her chair in shock as journalists threw a barrage of demands at the pair, the cacophony overwhelming the Italian PM. Briefly thrown back into her chair, her eyes wide open like a rabbit caught in the headlights of a car on a dark country road, Meloni composed herself. But further uncomfortable moments were to come.

 
When an Italian journalist insisted on asking Meloni a question in her native Italian she looked disgusted. Reluctantly she answered in Italian, her features relaxing slightly as she embarked on an extended discourse. Her body language betrayed her as she lifted both feet off the ground, one crossed leg folding behind the other once again. As she finished and an American journalist tried to ask another question, Trump interjected. "No, wait, I want to hear what you said," the president insisted.

Meloni's female interpreter, sitting nearby, revealed. "Prime Minister Meloni was asked … what she thinks about the fact that President Trump holds Zelenskyy responsible for the war in Ukraine."

Sensing the moment could have worsened, Meloni intervened in a moment of damage limitation and reinterpreted her own answer in Italian, steering her comments towards her vow to in raising Italy's contributions to NATO.

Trump, reading between the lines concerning her response, attempted to defend his position concerning Zelenskyy. "I don't hold Zelenskyy responsible," he insisted, a full retreat from his previous false accusations that Ukraine started the war [BBC]. "But I'm not exactly thrilled with the fact that that war started. I'm not happy with anybody involved."

Meloni may have visited Washington DC with good intent to kick start negotiation with the EU and to temper the fallout of Trump's trade war. But there is clearly a sense of naivety if she, or any other leader, believes they can tame the savage beast that is Donald J. Trump and his pack of loyal doberman pinschers.

With his launch of his Trade War there is clearly a shift in geopolitics. Trump's flip-flopping concerning tariffs has created uncertainty in financial markets. His stance on Gaza and the possibility of building a Mediterranean resort has caused consternation in the Middle East. And then there's the president's attempt to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. He has been accused of aligning himself too closely with Russia's Vladimir Putin and appeasing his demands in order to bring about a ceasefire. Meanwhile his bullying of Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy whilst trying to force him to sign over mineral rights has been likened to Hitler's forcing of the Czech leader Hacha to hand over his country to the Reich in 1939 [Dominic Grieve Twitter/X]. 

There is no certainty in this new world order. While the world beyond the American borders may want to calm the savage beast, it is probably best just to look beyond the US, as China appears to be doing. Europe has already been shocked into creating a so-called coalition of the willing to ward off the Russian threat and help defend Ukraine as the US shows signs of withdrawal.

And so too with trade. Europe, and the rest of the world need to focus on trade partners outside of the US and leave Trump’s America withdraw into its own borders if that’s what he has planned or wishes to do.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Trump blinks as China ups the stakes

The US president paused his 'reciprocal tariffs' reducing them across the board to 10% except for China after a week of turmoil in global markets wiped trillions off the value of shares. He said he would however continue to maintain punitive tariffs on China which he raised to 125% after Beijing had earlier raised its tariff on US imports to 84%. But can Trump win this trade war which has been likened to a high stakes game of poker in which he may not hold all the cards?

Trump's stated aim in his trade war and widespread tariffs is to reduce the US deficit with other trading partners and bring manufacturing back to the United States. But this cannot be achieved in the short term.

The US is reliant on imports from around the globe, not only in terms of food and goods but also the raw materials with which it relies upon to build products in the US. There are countless examples, but some key imports include rubber, steel, metal and other raw materials. It is almost totally reliant upon other countries for rubber. In 2024, the United States imported $1.68Bn of rubber, being the 269th most imported product. Its top suppliers include China, Canada, Mexico, Korea, Rep. and Thailand, all of which have been hit with high tariffs.

Likewise the United States is also a significant importer of steel and aluminium. Canada, Brazil, and Mexico are its top suppliers of steel while it relies upon other countries for its much needed aluminium. Around half of all aluminum used in the US is imported, with the vast majority coming from its neighbour Canada.

The list is virtually endless and whichever way one looks at it the US manufacturing industry as it stands is reliant upon foreign imports.

The other overlooked factor is the cost of the US workforce. While some globalists will point to the iniquity of wages paid to workers in China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and India, the fact is that should the products they supply be made in the US the cost of wages would likely make such products cost prohibitive. An Apple iPhone currently costs anywhere between "600 and a little over $1000. With the 125% tariffs placed on Chinese imports this will double. But should that same iPhone be made in the US, with current wage structures and other factors the cost could be over $3500 according to some reports [CBS].

Wedbush Securities tech analyst Dan Ives points to many things that the Trump administration appears to overlook, even putting aside the time it would take for the likes of Apple to relocate to the United States.

"Saying we can just make this in the USA is a statement that incredibly understates the complexity of the Asia supply chain and the way electronics, chips, semi fabs, hardware, smartphones, etc. are made for US consumers over the last 30 years," he said.  

While the US produces rubber, primarily synthetic rubber, with about 920,000 tonnes produced annually, the country imports almost all its natural rubber. Both types are integral to tyre manufacture so the US car manufacturing industry is reliant on foreign supplies.

Trump's war on China could have a number of effects. There is a risk that if products were unable to enter the US, Chinese firms could seek to "dump" them abroad. While that could be beneficial for some consumers, it could also undercut producers in some countries and threaten jobs and wages.

However, this might be too simplistic. China's exports to the US account for only 2.9% of the country's GDP. This is significant in cash terms but it would be a loss that China could easily absorb should it stop supplying the United States altogether.

Trump, through his punitive tariffs may intend to force China to kowtow to his will. But it risks irreversibly damaging the US economy.

Trump paused his tariffs as it was observed that US treasury bonds were being sold off. China holds at least a fifth of US debt and it is speculated that China was playing a trump card by selling off some of its holdings. Economists have long thought that China cannot afford to do this since it would damage its own economic standing. However China has been building its reserves in gold for a significant period and may be willing to weaponize its US treasury holdings.

Should China unilaterally stop exporting to the US, this too would cripple the economy. Retail shelves in the US would likely be empty inside 6 weeks, and the impact on the US economy would be debilitating. China dominates the global rare earth supply chain and without them the US chip industry would collapse. The US military, along with various other sectors, is highly dependent on rare earth elements for critical technologies, and China's dominance in their production and processing creates a significant vulnerability for the US.

Another key import is that of pharmaceutics. China exports many active pharmaceutical ingredients for America's drug industry in terms of key medicines China supplies 95% of US imports of ibuprofen, 70% of acetaminophen, and 40-45% of penicillin. The migraine experienced by some Wall Street traders over the last week may become a bigger headache if there isn't a painkiller or prophylactic.

Across Europe the main indices have seen significant losses over the last month with the FTSE down 7%, the CAC40 down 10% and the Dax down 8.9%. The US indices rose on the back of Trump's tariff pause but have yet to regain what they lost in the last week and into Thursday's open showed further losses. Both of China's main indices have seen some drops but they have remained relatively stable throughout Trump's trade war on the world.

Trump may on the surface appear to be the strong man in the room as he increases the stakes by placing a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, but China is in it for the long game and may have many more cards to play.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Trump trade war escalates as China says it will fight

Trump's trade war has rocked global markets wiping trillions of dollars off the value of companies. From Wall Street to the Japanese stock market, there was nowhere unaffected after the US president slapped tariffs on nearly every country around the world.

Trump's claim is that his tariffs are a way of bringing industry back to the United States and to Make America Wealthy Again. But his sledgehammer approach with apparently random targeting has left many outside his circle bewildered and confused, as well as panicked.

Trump's tariffs ranged from a flat rate of 10% up to 50% with no particular logic as per its targeting [BBC]. The UK, a country with a supposed 'special relationship', with America was hit with a 10% tariff along with the likes of Brazil, Argentina, Australia and Ukraine. Most of those hit with 10% tariffs had a less than 1% share of US imports, though there were some exceptions with Brazil, Singapore and the UK all providing a little more than 1%. However there were some countries in the bracket of sending small amounts of exports and yet were hit with punitive tariffs. Angola and Algeria were hit with tariffs of some 30% despite providing less that 1% of US imports while Vietnam was hit with 46% tariffs while sending around 4.2% of American imports, primarily computers, electrical products, machinery, apparel and footwear. Bizarrely the Falkland Islands, a British overseas territory, was itself hit with a separate 42% tariff despite sending only around $27.4m [£21.2m] of goods to the US per year, as of 2023, mostly non-fillet frozen fish. In contrast, the Observatory of Economic Complexity [OEC] said the US exported $329,000 (£255,000) of goods to the Falklands.

The islanders were surprised, shocked, and angry to be placed in Trump's "worst offenders" list. With a population of about 3,600 people, the Falkland Islands has little room to manoeuvre. There has been little coverage concerning one of Britain's territories being slapped with such punitive tariffs with the UK prime minister conveniently ignoring the issue while talking of a calm and pragmatic approach to Trump's trade war on the world.


There have been some lone voices with the Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey urging the prime minister Sir Keir Starmer to urgently meet Falklands Governor Alison Blake to discuss the impact of the tariffs. Describing it as an "outrageous act of aggression", Sir Ed said that "Trump's trade war could be the biggest threat facing the Falklanders since Argentina's invasion." [BBC]

Such apparent random and arbitrary attacks could be potentially explained by so-called trade deficits, in that some places buy less from the US than is sent to the United States. But this does not explain why two uninhabited territories were hit with 10% tariffs.

There was much made of a 10% tariff levied at the Heard and McDonald Islands, an overseas territory belonging to Australia. The tiny group of islands in the Antarctic are home only to penguins and a few other animals and exports nothing. And also on the list were the Svalbard and Jan Mayen islands which belong to Norway. Despite having virtually no economy the islands were slapped with a 10% tariff while Norway was levied a 15% tariff.

Meanwhile the French territories of Guadeloupe and Martinique in the Caribbean, French Guiana in South America and the islands of Mayotte, in the Indian Ocean were singled out for 10% tariffs while France itself, under the umbrella of the EU, faces a 20% tariff. Réunion island, another French territory, faces tariffs of 37% [Politico]. 

The disproportionate and apparently random list has puzzled economists and commentators. Why was an uninhabited island slapped with 10% tariffs? Why the disparity of tariffs on overseas territories owned by Britain and France and the mainland?

It's almost as though the numbers and countries were plucked out of a hat. Indeed there have even been suggestions the plan was drawn up with the help of AI [Guardian / The Verge / Newsweek]. This has been denied by the US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick however [CBS].

Soon after the tariffs were announced the White House published a formula with which it had calculated its sums [Newsweek / USTR / BBC / YouTube].

Even if actual economists were working out the levies on paper, many were critical of the methodology and claimed it did not make sense [AEI].

Trade deficits with a given country are not determined only by tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, but also by international capital flows, supply chains, comparative advantage, geography amongst other things. It is all very well to suggest the EU take more US cars or other countries or territories take more American goods, but it may not be practical or financially viable for such places.

The EU and the UK don't buy American cars because they don't like such vehicles. Whilst there are safety rules sometimes prohibiting certain SUVs and large trucks on European roads, it is more the practical aspect that dissuades the consumer.

Many American vehicles are simply not economical enough and with fuel prices significantly higher in Europe it is not cost effective for people to buy such vehicles. Moreover many US vehicles are too big for European roads.

But is the trade war really about raising revenue as much as a policy of isolationism? According to Professor James Angel, who specialises in the market structure and regulation of global financial markets, Trump's trade war is driven by "extreme isolationists" that are "trashing 75 years of US policy".

Trump has publicly said he wants to clip the wings of China, as well as the EU who he has claimed was specifically "formed in order to screw the United States" [Sky News]. 

Of China he has particularly set his sights and taken aim with a series of tariffs which have levied 54% on all goods arriving on American shores.

But while the UK PM is resistant to retaliation and the EU is already attempting to negotiate with the Trump administration along with up to 70 other countries, China is not standing by idly.

China reacted to the compound tariffs with a retaliatory tariff of 34% having held emergency discussions on Friday 4th April despite it being a national holiday.

Trump was not amused and responded via social media post saying he would "impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th," if China did not pull back [Truth Social]. But instead of pulling back China responded with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson saying China would "fight to the end".

"The US threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake, China will never accept this," the spokesperson added [Xinhua / Axios], just hours before a 104% tariff was imposed on Chinese imports.

However the war of words could escalate into more than just a global recession as Goldman Sachs and others have already predicted.

There are concerns that China could escalate matters significantly. As of January 2025, China held approximately $760.8 billion in US Treasury securities, making it a significant foreign holder of US debt. In fact it is believed China may hold even more than this despite having been in a process of selling off its treasuries and building up its reserves of gold.

Should China opt to dump this government debt, the blow to the US would be seismic. Such a sell off would also hit global markets [Yahoo].   

Many economists believe that China would be unlikely to make such a move since such a sell off could also hurt China. However with China having become less reliant on the dollar and built its gold reserves, whilst reinforcing its ties with BRICs and south-east Asian partners. China may feel emboldened enough to hit back hard [YouTube]. 

The trade war Trump has started has become a high stakes game of poker. It remains unclear who really holds the cards, but it is well known that China often keeps its cards close to its chest. In such a game however, the whole world may well get burned.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

USA on the road to a fascist state

The 47th President of the United States has said "there are methods" for seeking a third term in White House and added that he wasn't joking during an interview with NBC aired on Sunday 30th March. His bold assertion came after just 70 days in office.

If it wasn't clear to anybody by now that Trump has all but created an American Fascist state then they are surely delusionary.

First 70 days

In the 70 days in office Trump has ruled by diktat, signing countless executive orders that have overwhelmed the judiciary. When judges have attempted to countermand his orders Trump has simply ignored them and steamrollered ahead, ignoring the judges and the constitution. One particular case in point was when more than 200 Venezuelan individuals were deported in shackles to a supermax prison in El Salvador

In other high profile cases, members of ICE [The US Immigration & Customs Enforcement agency] have grabbed individuals and summarily arrested them without charge and incarcerated them at detention centres. The first high profile case was when US Immigration authorities arrested Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil amid President Trump's crackdown on pro-Palestinian campus activism. Then on the 25th March ICE arrested a Tufts University doctoral student who co-authored an op-ed supporting Palestine. Rümeysa Öztürk was taken from the street by masked, plainclothes officers in a Boston-area suburb before being bundled into an unmarked car and disappeared. Her lawyers were unable to find her for many hours until she finally surfaced at a detention centre in Louisiana, some 2,500 km away.

For some it might be brushed away as radicals and criminals being rounded up. But for others, even for those not necessarily sympathetic to the political cause of Khalil and Öztürk, it is disquieting.

The clampdown of supposed dissent and the rounding up of 'illegal immigrants' has prompted many to recollect Martin Niemöller's infamous quote.

Martin Niemöller was a German theologian and Lutheran pastor. He is known for his opposition to the Nazi regime during the late 1930s. But he is best remembered for his quote made following the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

"First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."

While Trump's targets for deportation and incarceration have differed, Niemöller's statement made in the mid-1940s has brought back uncomfortable memories from the past.

It has often been said that while history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes.

Echoes from the past

Trump's second term in office and his consolidation of power has greatly concerned many for the strong similarities of Hitler's rise to power.

On the face of it, this might seem like an exaggeration and hyperbole. But there are a great many similarities as well as differences.

Hitler's battle with the judicial system and his being jailed arguably helped him into power as his incarceration was seen by some at the time as being a witch hunt.  Having failed in taking power by force, Hitler chose the ballot box to secure his grip on Germany.

Similarly, Trump failed to overturn an election with an insurrection - known simply as January 6th - and faced multiple charges which he capitalised upon by claiming it was a witch hunt.

Both would-be dictators came to power on the ticket of promising to make their respective countries great once more. The mantra of Make America Great Again is little different from what Hitler, and other fascist leaders such as Mussolini and Austria's Engelbert Dollfuss attempted to sell to their people in the 1930s.

It is all too simplistic, of course, to make direct comparisons with the likes of Hitler. But fascism comes in many guises. Fascism does not necessarily come with neat uniforms, jackboots and swastikas. Dollfuss was a fascist, but most often wore a suit. Mussolini's attire was somewhat militaristic but less extreme than the imagery the Nazis employed. Politically too, facism can take different forms. Hitler's fascism was on one extreme level while Austria's Engelbert Dollfuss' fascistic rule was liberal by comparison. Indeed, pressured by Hitler to allow his country to be annexed, Dollfuss was for a time even protected and supported by Italy's Mussollini.

Where fascism is mostly grounded is in its focus on 'the leader'. It might even become a cult of personality as seen with China's Mao Zedong or in North Korea with its dynasty of leaders; Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un.

Trump has already built around himself a cult of followers under the slogan of MAGA. Meanwhile he has repeatedly expressed his expansionist dreams of 'taking back' the Panama Canal, annexing Canada - making it the 51st state - and Greenland with claims it is necessary to protect the security of America.

Peacemaker

Trump meanwhile has proclaimed himself to be the peacemaker with his attempt to broker a 'peace deal' and halt the Russia-Ukraine war. Yet critics have said Trump's real motive is not so much a lasting peace than to be awarded a Nobel peace prize.

His attempts to secure a ceasefire and a peace deal has been criticised for appeasing Vladimir Putin while bullying Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling him a dictator and later at a White House meeting on Friday 28th February 2025, verbally assaulting the beleaguered wartime leader.

That meeting has been likened to an event some 86 years ago when on the evening of the 14th March 1939, Hitler had summoned President Hácha to the Reich Chancellery in Berlin. Hitler had deliberately kept him waiting for hours, while Hitler watched a film. A clear attempt to belittle him. Finally, at 1:30 a.m., on the 15th March 1939, Hitler saw the President. He told Hácha that as they were speaking, the German army was about to invade Czechoslovakia.

In an ultimatum Hitler then gave the Czech President two options: cooperate with Germany, in which case the "entry of German troops would take place in a tolerable manner" and "permit Czechoslovakia a generous life of her own, autonomy and a degree of national freedom..." or face a scenario in which "resistance would be broken by force of arms, using all means."

The German ministers [Göring and Ribbentrop] were pitiless. They literally hunted Dr. Hácha and M. Chvalkovsky around the table on which the documents were lying, thrusting them continually before them, pushing pens into their hands, incessantly repeating that if they continued in their refusal, half of Prague would lie in ruins from bombing within two hours, and that this would be only the beginning. Hundreds of bombers were waiting for the order to take off, and they would receive that order at six in the morning if the signatures were not forthcoming.

While Trump and Vance did not chase Zelenskyy around the Oval office insisting he sign away his country, the public haranguing of the Ukrainian president had strong echoes of the past.

"You got to be more thankful, because let me tell you, you don't have the cards. With us, you have the cards, but without us, you don't have any cards," Trump told Zelenskyy, after a bitter war of words where the vice president J.D.Vance also chimed in to suggest he was ungrateful and hadn't thanked the administration enough for their help.

Trump also accused Zelenskyy of risking millions of lives and risking WWIII in his pushing back of Trump's proposals and his demand for security guarantees..

Following the 1939 meeting Hácha reportedly had a heart attack and eventually signed the documents thrust at him, thus handing over Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany.

Zelenskyy has yet to concede to Trump's and Putin's pressure but the parallels are, nonetheless, stark.

Europe has since come together in solidarity, saying they stand with Zelenskyy and Ukraine. But there is growing unease as Trump's allegiance to Putin seems to increase.

Talks have continued since that fraught meeting, but a ceasefire remains elusive. And for his part, Trump is now reportedly said to be losing patience with the Russian leader. Speaking to NBC the US president said he was "pissed off" with Vladimir Putin over his approach to a ceasefire in Ukraine and threatened to levy tariffs on Moscow's oil exports if the Russian leader does not agree to a truce within a month. Meanwhile Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the minerals deal being pushed at him is being continually changed with the US now seeking rights to mine gas and oil reserves, while still avoiding any mention of security guarantees. 

Tariffs and sabre rattling

With regards the economy, Trump has shocked the world with his widespread tariffs. Particular targets thus far have been Canada, Mexico and China. However, he plans to roll out more far reaching tariffs on Europe and other countries in the coming days and weeks. His policy of tariffs allows Trump to assert his economic power without seeking approval from Congress, another aspect by which the president has secured autocratic power. 

The tariffs have rocked markets and political establishments around the globe. Some nations have kow towed to Trumpian demands while others have sought to negotiate with him in order to soften the blow to their export market. Others, such as Canada, China and the EU as a whole have threatened reciprocal tariffs.

It is not entirely clear what Trump's motive and end game is. Tariffs applied to foreign nations, while potentially hurting said countries, also hurt the US consumer. A 25% tariff on European cars does not mean the EU pays more. It means that the importer has to pay the US government the extra 25% which ultimately will be passed to the consumer. Thus a $20,000 car from the EU will suddenly cost the US customer $25,000. The incentive is to get EU car manufacturers to build in the US. However, this can't happen overnight. The other motive is to force more factories to manufacture at home and get Americans to buy products Made in America. This argument falls down, in that many of the raw materials or parts needed to make such products are imported from abroad, and on which Trump has already placed punitive tariffs.

There have been suggestions that members of his own administration are capitalising on the volatility by shorting the markets. The suggestion has been rebutted by the White House. When White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt was asked,"You're sure nobody here at the White House shorted the Dow?"   she responded by saying "No, I don't think so."

Consolidation of Power

But what of Trump's longer term plans? Perhaps one of the best ways to answer this would be to point to Project 2025, a political initiative to reshape the federal government of the United States and consolidate executive power in favour of right-wing policies.

Dismissed during the 2024 campaign by Trump himself, as something he was not familiar with, Project 2025 has been key to Trump's game plan.

In particular the project calls for merit-based federal civil service workers to be replaced by people loyal to Trump and to take partisan control of key government agencies, including the Department of Justice [DOJ], Federal Bureau of Investigation [FBI], Department of Commerce [DOC], and Federal Trade Commission [FTC].

With respect to this Trump has placed Elon Musk in charge, and who has laid off thousands of government employees under the umbrella Department Of Government Efficiency [DOGE].

The project has also laid out plans for other agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security [DHS] and the Department of Education [ED], to be dismantled or abolished.

In this regard Trump has already signed an executive order aimed at the dismantling of the Department of Education. In addition the Trump administration has shut down three watchdog agencies in the Department of Homeland Security.

All of this has occurred without congressional oversight in as much as most decisions thus far have been made by presidential decree in the form of executive orders.

Criminalising porn & targeting LGBTQ+

One key element of Project 2025 is its proposal to criminalise pornography. To date no overt plans have been enacted upon. However, within Trump's base and amongst ultra-conservative Republicans there would likely be strong support.

While the proposals are certainly targeted towards pornography in general, the Project 2025 proposal is even more sweeping, indicating that its anti-porn language may be covering for a broader crusade against LGBTQ rights.

Within the document it states, "Pornography, manifested today in the omnipresent propagation of transgender ideology and sexualization of children, for instance, is not a political Gordian knot inextricably binding up disparate claims about free speech, property rights, sexual liberation, and child welfare. It has no claim to First Amendment protection. Its purveyors are child predators and misogynistic exploiters of women. Their product is as addictive as any illicit drug and as psychologically destructive as any crime. Pornography should be outlawed. The people who produce and distribute it should be imprisoned. Educators and public librarians who purvey it should be classed as registered sex offenders. And telecommunications and technology firms that facilitate its spread should be shuttered."

While some of this may seem incongruous given Trump's own misogynistic behaviour, it seems likely that he will nonetheless follow through on such proposals.

Already Trump has removed some legal protections against anti-LGBT discrimination and has ended diversity, equity, and inclusion [DEI] programs across government departments which has prompted many large conglomerates to follow suit.

Immigrants and dissidents

One of Trump's most outspoken policies has been one of tackling 'illegal immigration'. Project 2025 recommends the arrest, detention, and mass deportation of illegal immigrants. And within days of the inauguration ICE had been deployed to carry out these objectives. The arrests were carried out without warning making media coverage difficult, and their detention has been veiled in secrecy. Some have been sent to already established detention centres while others have been swiftly deported, ignoring court orders and pushback by politicians and human rights groups. Trump has even looked into the possibility of reopening Guantanamo Bay to house immigrants ahead of their repatriation.

So swift have some of these changes in policy been made that it has been almost impossible for the media to keep up and report on events. When Trump initially ordered that an existing migrant detention facility at the base be expanded to hold some 30,000 people there was some brief reportage across many news platforms. But as immigrants began to arrive, there was scant reporting as events were drowned out by other things the administration was doing.

In fact that has seemingly been much of the game plan in terms of rolling out Trump's plan for autocracy.

End of democracy

With information overload, courts and the judicial system overwhelmed with procedural attempts to counter unconstitutional diktats, and dissent being stifled with arrests which further distracts as media coverage focuses on comparative minutiae, Trump is consolidating his power.

Anyone suggesting Trump is attempting to establish an autocracy and bring about a form of American fascism is accused of wearing a tin-foil hat or being a conspiracy theorist. Yet it seems that to believe otherwise is delusional.

Many of the guardrails of American democracy have, in just a few short weeks, been dispensed with, eroded or ignored. Congress has been left largely impotent, given little, if any, actual legislation has passed through the body. Judges and their rulings have been ignored. And those opposing the administration, either within government or on the streets are being targeted verbally or with detention. Even those entering the United States have found themselves singled out for not having the right viewpoint.

In late March three members of the UK Subs, a punk band, were detained and returned to the UK after flying to Los Angeles for a gig, supposedly for having incorrect visas. One band member suspected it was for his "less than flattering, public comments regarding their president".

Just days before, a French scientist was returned after phone messages critical of Trump were found on his device. It is unclear whether such instances are the tip of the iceberg or an unfortunate mistake met out by overzealous immigration staff.

The detaining of pro-Palestinian activists Mahmoud Khalil and Rümeysa Öztürk may be two anomalies or just two examples of many that have gone unreported because someone was not on hand to record the arrests on their phones. Yet further examples have come to light with another pro-Palestianian activist, Momodou Taal, leaving the US having had his visa revoked. And it emerged just days ago, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that some 300 university students have had their student visas revoked due to involvement in pro-Palestinian protests.

Repeating history

In the 1930s, as Martin Niemöller alludes to, many might not have spoken out as the first inmates arrived at the likes of Dachau. When the first bus arrived at the Dachau concentration camp, located near Munich, Germany, it carried mainly communists, social democrats, dissidents and other undesirables. The incarceration of such individuals may not have created consternation amongst the general population, even if they were fully aware of the goings on at the camp, since they may well have thought these people were 'enemies of the state'. By the time it became an execution camp for gypsies, homosexuals and Jews, it was too late to protest.

The pro-Palestian cause is a divisive issue and tends to attract a greater number of younger, left leaning individuals. Thus in a twist of the words Niemöller uttered some 80 years ago; 'First they came for the pro-Palestinians, and I did not speak out—because I was not a pro-Palestinian. Then they came for the Venezuelans, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Venezuelan. Then they came for the Salvadorans, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Salvadoran. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.'

This is only the list thus far, and it is unclear how far reaching Trump's policy of detainment and expulsion will go. But there have been some dissenting voices. Most vocal have been politicians, political pundits and even comedians to the left of centre. But even some right wing commentators have weighed in, such as Joe Rogan, a Trump supporter who hosts a right leaning radio show podcast.

Speaking soon after the mass deportation of 300 Venezuelans, Rogan expressed his concern that innocent individuals were being swept up in the deportation policy. Whilst he has praised President Donald Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration he expressed horror at the news that the administration had deported a gay Venezuelan asylum-seeker along with suspected members of the Tren de Aragua gang.

"You got to get scared that people who are not criminals are getting lassoed up and deported and sent to El Salvador prisons," Rogan said. "It's horrific," he added. "It's horrific." Sending non-criminals back, Rogan says, was "bad for the cause." Or is it just getting caught?

There will be less chance of accountability as Trump seeks to erode the free press. There is already a push to revoke licences and funding for state run broadcasters. VoA, RFA and others have already been targeted and Marjorie Taylor Greene and others have made a bid to get funding pulled from PBS and NPR.

With the media forced to kowtow to Trump, and with the great leader staring down from Mount Rushmore or from a proposed $100 bill, the Trump Reich will be all but complete.

tvnewswatch, London, UK

Sources: Guardian / Guardian / BBC / Reuters / BBC / Guardian / BBC / AP News / Wikipedia / NBC / Sky News / Guardian / ABC / Wikipedia / BBC / NYT / MSNBC / BBC / Yahoo / Guardian / Guardian / BBC / Daily Beast / Independent / BBC / Guardian / MSN / Independent